Monday, December 16, 2013

2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 16

With the final regular season NCAA FBS game in the books, I have run the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, and have listed the top 25 teams ranked below, with Florida State at the top of the list for the fifth straight week.  While the model takes into account of conference membership, we see that in terms of overall production the top two teams are Florida State and Louisville, not Auburn.

In fact the Auburn Tigers are only ranked #25 overall, not for their recent work, but due to their poor performance (relative to teams like Louisville and Baylor) at the beginning of the season.  Some may argue that those games should not matter or matter as much as what has taken place at the end of the season.  Fair enough; how much?  This is one of the problems of making these type of judgements, that they are in effect arbitrary.  If you are not a fan of this type of analysis - again fair enough.  All I am saying in that I will treat all teams and games the same, and let a statistical analysis of the data determine whether we should or should not include various aspects of the game in deciding which team is more productive and the amount (or weight) of the included various aspects have on points scored and points against.

With that in mind here is the top 25.  Huge kudos to College Football Stats for the data.

Rank Team
1 Florida State
2 Louisville
3 Baylor
4 Alabama
5 Oregon
6 Ohio State
7 Michigan State
8 Wisconsin
9 LSU
10 Bowling Green
11 South Carolina
12 Washington
13 Missouri
14 Northern Illinois
15 Clemson
16 Marshall
17 Fresno State
18 Ball State
19 Oklahoma State
20 UCF
21 Cincinnati
22 Arizona State
23 East Carolina
24 Utah State
25 Auburn

Previous Top 25 Ranks for 2013
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 15
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 14
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 13
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 12
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 11
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 10
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 9
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 8
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 7
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 6
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 5
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 4
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 3
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 2