Team Sports Analysis: 2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 16

Monday, December 16, 2013

2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 16

With the final regular season NCAA FBS game in the books, I have run the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, and have listed the top 25 teams ranked below, with Florida State at the top of the list for the fifth straight week. While the model takes into account of conference membership, we see that in terms of overall production the top two teams are Florida State and Louisville, not Auburn.

In fact the Auburn Tigers are only ranked #25 overall, not for their recent work, but due to their poor performance (relative to teams like Louisville and Baylor) at the beginning of the season. Some may argue that those games should not matter or matter as much as what has taken place at the end of the season. Fair enough; how much? This is one of the problems of making these type of judgements, that they are in effect arbitrary. If you are not a fan of this type of analysis - again fair enough. All I am saying in that I will treat all teams and games the same, and let a statistical analysis of the data determine whether we should or should not include various aspects of the game in deciding which team is more productive and the amount (or weight) of the included various aspects have on points scored and points against.

With that in mind here is the top 25. Huge kudos to College Football Stats for the data.

Rank	Team
1	Florida State
2	Louisville
3	Baylor
4	Alabama
5	Oregon
6	Ohio State
7	Michigan State
8	Wisconsin
9	LSU
10	Bowling Green
11	South Carolina
12	Washington
13	Missouri
14	Northern Illinois
15	Clemson
16	Marshall
17	Fresno State
18	Ball State
19	Oklahoma State
20	UCF
21	Cincinnati
22	Arizona State
23	East Carolina
24	Utah State
25	Auburn