|Little Caesars Bowl 2013|
Bowling Green finished the regular season (including the Mid American Conference Championship game) at 10-3. The Falcons played against an "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compare to the rest of the "league". A team's schedule is called easier if statistically their strength of schedule is between on and two standard deviations greater than the "leagues" mean or average strength of schedule. In this case Bowling Green SOS is greater than one standard deviation of the mean strength of schedule. That said, Bowling Green has had a very good season, with their best game their win in the Mid American Conference Championship game over currently ranked #14 Northern Illinois and their worst game (loss to lowest ranked team) was a defeat to currently ranked #77 Indiana University. Overall, the Falcons are currently ranked in the top 10 at #10 in total production, with the #14 ranked offense and the #13 ranked defense.
Pittsburgh finished the regular season at 6-6 playing against an "average" SOS, which means that Pitt's SOS is plus or minus within one standard deviation of the "league" mean SOS. For the Panthers, their best game was a win over currently ranked #65 Duke, and their worst loss was to currently ranked #68 Navy. In terms of total production, the Panthers currently have the #63 most productive team in all of the Football Bowl Subdivision, with the #81 ranked offense and the #37 ranked defense.
From the standpoint of the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model Bowling Green is more productive on both sides of the ball as compared to Pittsburgh, so the model "predicts" that Bowling Green will be the winner of this years Little Caesars Bowl.