Wednesday, June 29, 2011

North Carolina Football Program Accused of NCAA Violations

The NCAA accused the University of North Carolina football program of violating NCAA rules. This seems to be the common theme this summer, so let's take a look at UNC's football program over the last three years - in terms of their offense, defense and total productivity.

On the defensive side of the ball, North Carolina is a very good team. Their defensive rankings out of the 120 FBS teams are 40th in 2008, 10th in 2009 and 23rd in 2010, even with the number of suspensions that occurred on their team. North Carolina's problem is on offense. None of the three years did North Carolina finish in the top half of the rankings on offense. In 2008 the offense was 65th, 2009 they fell to 84th and bounced back in 2010 to be 64th overall. Hence, while North Carolina is an excellent defensive team - to be expected under Butch Davis, their overall performance suffers from the other side. To be clear, UNC finished - in my production model - as the 54th best team in 2008, 33rd best team in 2009 and 43rd best team in 2010.

Friday, June 24, 2011

NHL 2010-2011 Regular Season Goalie Evaluation

At the NHL All-Star Break I posted on the evaluation of NHL goalies, along with a brief discussion as to how I am evaluating NHL goalies based on a paper David Berri and I published in 2010. So, now I have picked up the evaluation process again and done the regular season final analysis. In order to compare the NHL All-Star numbers with the final regular season numbers, I am using the same coefficient (in absolute value) of a goal against. The number is most likely different and this will tweak the WAA number, but the ranking of goalies will all remain the same, since I am multiplying each goalie's actual save percentage minus the average save percentage times the number of shots the goalie faced by the exact same number. Thus if the coefficient changes, this will not change the relative rank in terms of our measure of productivity, but does change their total number. Hence changing the coefficient just shifts up/down all the WAA's by the same amount.

So, with this caveat out of the way, we see that the best goalie in the NHL's regular season last year was Tim Thomas. In fact, Tim Thomas's performance last year ranks him as 8th best in regular season performance since 1997-1998 (the earliest the data is posted on nhl.com).

Here is the entire list for you to look over.

PLAYER TEAM WAA
Tim Thomas BOS 5.038
Pekka Rinne NSH 3.611
Roberto Luongo VAN 2.935
Cam Ward CAR 2.661
Carey Price MTL 2.406
Henrik Lundqvist NYR 2.202
Ilya Bryzgalov PHX 1.910
Jonas Hiller ANA 1.838
Tomas Vokoun FLA 1.770
Antti Niemi SJS 1.372
Cory Schneider VAN 1.274
James Reimer TOR 1.019
Marc-Andre Fleury PIT 0.987
Semyon Varlamov WSH 0.934
Jonathan Quick LAK 0.924
Braden Holtby WSH 0.776
Corey Crawford CHI 0.704
Ryan Miller BUF 0.678
Brent Johnson PIT 0.610
Niklas Backstrom MIN 0.540
Al Montoya NYI 0.526
Tuukka Rask BOS 0.491
Martin Biron NYR 0.477
Martin Gerber EDM 0.475
Ray Emery ANA 0.395
Cedrick Desjardins TBL 0.385
Devan Dubnyk EDM 0.381
Sergei Bobrovsky PHI 0.358
Jose Theodore MIN 0.332
Kevin Poulin NYI 0.323
Brian Boucher PHI 0.311
Anton Khudobin MIN 0.277
Kari Lehtonen DAL 0.252
Ondrej Pavelec ATL 0.211
Dwayne Roloson NYI, TBL 0.197
Joey MacDonald DET 0.170
Michal Neuvirth WSH 0.159
Anders Lindback NSH 0.135
Alex Stalock SJS 0.087
Alex Auld MTL 0.047
Matt Climie PHX 0.045
Richard Bachman DAL 0.039
Craig Anderson COL, OTT 0.020
Jonathan Bernier LAK 0.008
Johan Hedberg NJD -0.076
Jacob Markstrom FLA -0.087
Mark Dekanich NSH -0.091
Michael Leighton PHI -0.095
David LeNeveu CBJ -0.106
Chad Johnson NYR -0.116
Mike McKenna NJD -0.123
Andrew Raycroft DAL -0.142
Scott Clemmensen FLA -0.174
Peter Mannino ATL -0.207
Henrik Karlsson CGY -0.212
Henrik Karlsson CGY -0.212
Jason LaBarbera PHX -0.228
Jhonas Enroth BUF -0.246
Thomas McCollum DET -0.255
Ben Bishop STL -0.258
Chris Osgood DET -0.326
Mike Brodeur OTT -0.372
Patrick Lalime BUF -0.413
Timo Pielmeier ANA -0.438
Jaroslav Halak STL -0.485
Robin Lehner OTT -0.491
Mikko Koskinen NYI -0.521
Nathan Lawson NYI -0.535
Mike Smith TBL -0.886
Jimmy Howard DET -0.990
Jean-Sebastien Giguere TOR -1.109
Antero Niittymaki SJS -1.150
Mathieu Garon CBJ -1.168
Curtis McElhinney ANA, OTT -1.268
Marty Turco CHI -1.406
Martin Brodeur NJD -1.437
Justin Peters CAR -1.439
Miikka Kiprusoff CGY -1.475
Jonas Gustavsson TOR -1.571
Dan Ellis TBL, ANA -1.795
Steve Mason CBJ -2.028
Chris Mason ATL -2.040
Ty Conklin STL -2.055
Rick DiPietro NYI -2.302
Peter Budaj COL -2.444
Brian Elliott OTT, COL -3.416
Nikolai Khabibulin EDM -3.521

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Nevada Football Head Coach Contract Extension

The University of Nevada'a head football coach Chris Auld received a two year contract extension. So exactly how has the Wolfpack performed on the field over the last three years? On the offensive side of the ball - outstanding! In 2008 Nevada finished as the 14th best offense among the 120 NCAA FBS teams. Not to be outdone, Nevada in 2009 was the 4th best offense and then slipped just a tiny bit to finish as the 6th best offense in 2010. In other words, there are very few teams that had as good an offense as Nevada's in any of those three years, let alone have performed that well all three years. Not enough is said about the performance of Nevada on the offensive side of the ball.

Defense, well they are getting better. Then again Nevada finished as the 101st best defense (or 20th worst defense) in 2008. Nevada slightly improved to 94th best in 2009 and then really made a jump to 38th in 2010. The 2010 performance on the defense side of the ball put them in the top third of all FBS teams.

In terms of overall performance, Nevada was the 35th best team in 2008, 28th best in 2009 and jumped to 10th best team overall in 2010. This is truly a team on the rise (not that they have much farther to go with there 2010 performance).

Saturday, June 18, 2011

2011-2012 NCAA FBS Bowl Schedule

ESPN has posted the 2011-12 bowl schedule. Last year the NCAA FBS production model went 24-11 for the bowl season. I plan to continue working on the production model and see if I can make it more accurate. Over the next few months I hope to have some time to look this over some more. I have been working on this model lately for a paper I am presenting at the end of the month. I am using three years of data, as opposed to only the current season, as I did for the model results presented in this blog.

Oh, here is the schedule in case the link goes dead.

Bowl Location Date/Time Network
New Mexico
MWC vs. Pac-12
Albuquerque, N.M.
University Stadium
Dec. 17
2 p.m.
ESPN
uDrove Humanitarian
MAC vs. WAC
Boise, Idaho
Bronco Stadium
Dec. 17
5:30 p.m.
ESPN
R+L Carriers New Orleans
C-USA vs. Sun Belt
New Orleans
Louisiana Superdome
Dec. 17
9 p.m.
ESPN
Beef 'O' Brady's St. Petersburg
Big East vs. C-USA
St. Petersburg, Fla.
Tropicana Field
Dec. 20
8 p.m.
ESPN
S.D. County Credit Union Poinsettia
MWC vs. WAC
San Diego
Qualcomm Stadium
Dec. 21
8 p.m.
ESPN
MAACO Las Vegas
MWC vs. Pac-12
Las Vegas
Sam Boyd Stadium
Dec. 22
8 p.m.
ESPN
Sheraton Hawaii
C-USA vs. WAC
Honolulu
Aloha Stadium
Dec. 24
8 p.m.
ESPN
AdvoCare V100 Independence
ACC vs. MWC
Shreveport, La.
Independence Stadium
Dec. 26
5 p.m.
ESPN2
Little Caesars
Big Ten vs. MAC
Detroit
Ford Field
Dec. 27
4:30 p.m.
ESPN
Belk
ACC vs. Big East
Charlotte, N.C.
Bank of America Stadium
Dec. 27
8 p.m.
ESPN
Military Bowl Presented By Northrop Grumman
ACC vs. Navy
Washington, D.C.
RFK Stadium
Dec. 28
4:30 p.m.
ESPN
Bridgepoint Education Holiday
Big 12 vs. Pac-12
San Diego
Qualcomm Stadium
Dec. 28
8 p.m.
ESPN
Champs Sports
ACC vs. Big East
Orlando, Fla.
Florida Citrus Bowl
Dec. 29
5:30 p.m.
ESPN
Valero Alamo
Big 12 vs. Pac-12
San Antonio
Alamodome
Dec. 29
9 p.m.
ESPN
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces
BYU vs. C-USA
Dallas
Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Dec. 30
Noon
ESPN
New Era Pinstripe
Big 12 vs. Big East
Bronx, N.Y.
Yankee Stadium
Dec. 30
3:20 p.m.
ESPN
Franklin American Mortgage Music City
ACC vs. SEC
Nashville, Tenn.
LP Field
Dec. 30
6:40 p.m.
ESPN
Insight
Big Ten vs. Big 12
Tempe, Ariz.
Sun Devil Stadium
Dec. 30
10 p.m.
ESPN
Meineke Car Care of Texas
Big Ten vs. Big 12
Houston
Reliant Stadium
Dec. 31
Noon
ESPN
Hyundai Sun
ACC vs. Pac-12
El Paso, Texas
Sun Bowl
Dec. 31
2 p.m.
CBS
AutoZone Liberty
C-USA vs. SEC
Memphis, Tenn.
Liberty Bowl
Dec. 31
3:30 p.m.
ABC
Kraft Fight Hunger
Army vs. Pac-12
San Francisco
AT&T Park
Dec. 31
3:30 p.m.
ESPN
Chick-fil-A
ACC vs. SEC
Atlanta
Georgia Dome
Dec. 31
7:30 p.m.
ESPN
TicketCity
Big Ten vs. C-USA
Dallas
Cotton Bowl
Jan. 2
Noon
ESPNU
Outback
Big Ten vs. SEC
Tampa, Fla.
Raymond James Stadium
Jan. 2
1 p.m.
ABC
Capital One
Big Ten vs. SEC
Orlando, Fla.
Florida Citrus Bowl
Jan. 2
1 p.m.
ESPN
Gator Bowl
Big Ten vs. SEC
Jacksonville, Fla.
EverBank Field
Jan. 2
1 p.m.
ESPN2
Rose Bowl Game presented by Vizio
BCS vs. BCS
Pasadena, Calif.
Rose Bowl
Jan. 2
5 p.m.
ESPN
Allstate Sugar
BCS vs. BCS
New Orleans
Louisiana Superdome
Jan. 3
8:30 p.m.
ESPN
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Discover Orange
BCS vs. BCS
Miami
Sun Life Stadium
Jan. 4
8:30 p.m.
ESPN
Tostitos Fiesta
BCS vs. BCS
Glendale, Ariz.
U. of Phoenix Stadium
Jan. 5
8:30 p.m.
ESPN
AT&T Cotton
Big 12 vs. SEC
Arlington, Texas
Cowboys Stadium
Jan. 6
8 p.m.
FOX
BBVA Compass Bowl
Big East vs. SEC
Birmingham, Ala.
Legion Field
Jan. 7
1 p.m.
ESPN
Allstate BCS National Championship Game
BCS vs. BCS
New Orleans
Louisiana Superdome
Jan. 9
8:30 p.m.
ESPN
GoDaddy.com
MAC vs. Sun Belt
Mobile, Ala.
Ladd-Peebles Stadium
TBD
TBD
TBD