Friday, June 24, 2011

NHL 2010-2011 Regular Season Goalie Evaluation

At the NHL All-Star Break I posted on the evaluation of NHL goalies, along with a brief discussion as to how I am evaluating NHL goalies based on a paper David Berri and I published in 2010. So, now I have picked up the evaluation process again and done the regular season final analysis. In order to compare the NHL All-Star numbers with the final regular season numbers, I am using the same coefficient (in absolute value) of a goal against. The number is most likely different and this will tweak the WAA number, but the ranking of goalies will all remain the same, since I am multiplying each goalie's actual save percentage minus the average save percentage times the number of shots the goalie faced by the exact same number. Thus if the coefficient changes, this will not change the relative rank in terms of our measure of productivity, but does change their total number. Hence changing the coefficient just shifts up/down all the WAA's by the same amount.

So, with this caveat out of the way, we see that the best goalie in the NHL's regular season last year was Tim Thomas. In fact, Tim Thomas's performance last year ranks him as 8th best in regular season performance since 1997-1998 (the earliest the data is posted on nhl.com).

Here is the entire list for you to look over.

PLAYER TEAM WAA
Tim Thomas BOS 5.038
Pekka Rinne NSH 3.611
Roberto Luongo VAN 2.935
Cam Ward CAR 2.661
Carey Price MTL 2.406
Henrik Lundqvist NYR 2.202
Ilya Bryzgalov PHX 1.910
Jonas Hiller ANA 1.838
Tomas Vokoun FLA 1.770
Antti Niemi SJS 1.372
Cory Schneider VAN 1.274
James Reimer TOR 1.019
Marc-Andre Fleury PIT 0.987
Semyon Varlamov WSH 0.934
Jonathan Quick LAK 0.924
Braden Holtby WSH 0.776
Corey Crawford CHI 0.704
Ryan Miller BUF 0.678
Brent Johnson PIT 0.610
Niklas Backstrom MIN 0.540
Al Montoya NYI 0.526
Tuukka Rask BOS 0.491
Martin Biron NYR 0.477
Martin Gerber EDM 0.475
Ray Emery ANA 0.395
Cedrick Desjardins TBL 0.385
Devan Dubnyk EDM 0.381
Sergei Bobrovsky PHI 0.358
Jose Theodore MIN 0.332
Kevin Poulin NYI 0.323
Brian Boucher PHI 0.311
Anton Khudobin MIN 0.277
Kari Lehtonen DAL 0.252
Ondrej Pavelec ATL 0.211
Dwayne Roloson NYI, TBL 0.197
Joey MacDonald DET 0.170
Michal Neuvirth WSH 0.159
Anders Lindback NSH 0.135
Alex Stalock SJS 0.087
Alex Auld MTL 0.047
Matt Climie PHX 0.045
Richard Bachman DAL 0.039
Craig Anderson COL, OTT 0.020
Jonathan Bernier LAK 0.008
Johan Hedberg NJD -0.076
Jacob Markstrom FLA -0.087
Mark Dekanich NSH -0.091
Michael Leighton PHI -0.095
David LeNeveu CBJ -0.106
Chad Johnson NYR -0.116
Mike McKenna NJD -0.123
Andrew Raycroft DAL -0.142
Scott Clemmensen FLA -0.174
Peter Mannino ATL -0.207
Henrik Karlsson CGY -0.212
Henrik Karlsson CGY -0.212
Jason LaBarbera PHX -0.228
Jhonas Enroth BUF -0.246
Thomas McCollum DET -0.255
Ben Bishop STL -0.258
Chris Osgood DET -0.326
Mike Brodeur OTT -0.372
Patrick Lalime BUF -0.413
Timo Pielmeier ANA -0.438
Jaroslav Halak STL -0.485
Robin Lehner OTT -0.491
Mikko Koskinen NYI -0.521
Nathan Lawson NYI -0.535
Mike Smith TBL -0.886
Jimmy Howard DET -0.990
Jean-Sebastien Giguere TOR -1.109
Antero Niittymaki SJS -1.150
Mathieu Garon CBJ -1.168
Curtis McElhinney ANA, OTT -1.268
Marty Turco CHI -1.406
Martin Brodeur NJD -1.437
Justin Peters CAR -1.439
Miikka Kiprusoff CGY -1.475
Jonas Gustavsson TOR -1.571
Dan Ellis TBL, ANA -1.795
Steve Mason CBJ -2.028
Chris Mason ATL -2.040
Ty Conklin STL -2.055
Rick DiPietro NYI -2.302
Peter Budaj COL -2.444
Brian Elliott OTT, COL -3.416
Nikolai Khabibulin EDM -3.521