Monday, October 29, 2012

2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 9

Here is the top 25 using the complex invasion college (FBS) football model using data from college football stats.  As you can see, Florida State has re-taken the #1 spot, now just slightly ahead of Alabama in the absolute measure of production.


Rank Team
1 Florida State
2 Alabama
3 Kansas State
4 LSU
5 North Carolina
6 Fresno State
7 Ohio State
8 Texas A&M
9 Oregon
10 Georgia
11 Oklahoma
12 Nebraska
13 Texas Tech
14 Florida
15 Boise State
16 Clemson
17 Oklahoma State
18 South Carolina
19 Tulsa
20 Mississippi State
21 UCF
22 Michigan
23 Utah State
24 San Diego State
25 Notre Dame

Here are this year's Top 25 for the previous weeks:
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #8
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #7
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #6
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #5
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #4
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #3
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #2

Friday, October 26, 2012

2012 Notre Dame - Oklahoma Preview

Thought that I would look at the Notre Dame - Oklahoma game this weekend using the NCAA FBS model.

Notre Dame is ranked in my model as the #11 team in the nation, with the 82nd best offense (below average) and the #2 defense in the nation - yes they are really that good.  For those interested in strength of schedule (SOS), I have Notre Dame's current SOS at 58.86.  The average SOS as of last week was 69.51, so Notre Dame has had a stronger strength of schedule.  Notre Dame's best opponent so far has been Michigan - currently ranked #30 overall (won).

Oklahoma is ranked as the #5 team using my model and have the #17 offense and the #8 best defense.  Oklahoma's SOS is a 68.33, which is closer to the average.  Oklahoma has played tougher opponents (Kansas State currently #3 overall (loss) and Texas Tech currently #8 overall (won)).

So in terms of the game (from the model's perspective) it looks as if Notre Dame's offense has a difficult road against such a relatively more productive Oklahoma defense.  Thus the model would predict that Oklahoma will be the winner, but who actually knows - that's the fun of sports.

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Idaho Head Football Coach Robb Akey Fired

The first head football coach casualty took place earlier this week with the University of Idaho firing head coach Robb Akey.  That got me thinking about how the University of Idaho has fared using the complex invasion college football production model during Akey's tenure at Idaho.  (Actually, I am not including his first year - 2007 - since the data that I use in the model does not go back that far.)  So with that issue mentioned upfront, let's take a look at Idaho using the lens of the NCAA production model.

Starting in 2008, Idaho finished ranked #117 (out of 120 teams overall), with the #111th best offense and the #118th best defense; a fairly poor performance.

In 2009, Idaho finished ranked #76 overall, with the #26th best offense and the #115th best defense; a much improved performance, although still below average.

In 2010, Idaho finished ranked #79 overall, with the #61st best offense and the #91st best defense.  The overall performance has not changed much, with a loss on the ability to score points and a gain on the ability to deter their opponent to score points.

In 2011, Idaho finished ranked #77 overall, with the #113th best offense and the #44th best defense.  The overall performance has not changed much.  Again, Idaho's points score performance is sliding and their points scored against is rising.

For this year (2012) through eight games, Idaho is currently ranked #124 (out of 124 teams overall), with the #115th best offense and the #124th best defense; a very poor performance.

Monday, October 22, 2012

2012 NCAA FBS Week 8

Here is the latest top 25 using the complex invasion sport model for college football (FBS) using the data from college football stats.  Notice that Alabama is now the most productive team in the nation and that Florida State is now #2.

 
Rank Team
1 Alabama
2 Florida State
3 Kansas State
4 Oregon
5 Oklahoma
6 Rutgers
7 LSU
8 Texas Tech
9 Northern Illinois
10 Cincinnati
11 Notre Dame
12 Mississippi State
13 Florida
14 Ohio State
15 USC
16 Utah State
17 North Carolina
18 Georgia
19 Fresno State
20 Louisiana Tech
21 Oklahoma State
22 South Carolina
23 Texas A&M
24 Nebraska
25 Louisville



Here are this year's Top 25 for the previous weeks:
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #7
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #6
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #5
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #4
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #3
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #2

Monday, October 15, 2012

2012 NCAA FBS Week 7

The NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision production model has Florida State University at #1 for the sixth week in a row (I did not do the first week, given that so many teams did not play games the first week).  Thanks to the college football stats website.

For those interested here is an overview of the NCAA Football Complex Invasion Sports Model.  Here is the current Top 25.


Rank Team BCS
1 Florida State (14)
2 Oregon (3)
3 Northern Illinois (NR)
4 Alabama (1)
5 North Carolina (--)
6 South Carolina (7)
7 Kansas State (4)
8 Ohio State (--)
9 Texas A&M (18)
10 LSU (6)
11 Fresno State (NR)
12 Arizona State (NR)
13 Texas Tech (17)
14 UCLA (NR)
15 Nevada (NR)
16 Tulsa (NR)
17 Georgia (11)
18 San Diego State (NR)
19 Ohio (NR)
20 Mississippi (NR)
21 TCU (23)
22 Mississippi State (12)
23 Nebraska (NR)
24 Florida (2)
25 Georgia Tech (NR)

Here are this year's Top 25 for the previous weeks:
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #6
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #5
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #4
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #3
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #2

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Congrats!

Congrats to the three teams that are now FBS bowl eligible for the 2012-2013 bowl season:  Ohio University, University of Oregon and University of South Carolina.

Monday, October 8, 2012

2012 NCAA FBS Week 6

The NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision production model has Florida State University at #1 for the fifth week in a row (I did not do the first week, given that so many teams did not play games the first week).  Yes, FSU lost last week, but given their superior performance relative to the other teams, they still have a slight lead over the new #2 team - South Carolina.

For those interested here is an overview of the NCAA Football Complex Invasion Sports Model.  Here is the current Top 25.


Rank Team
1 Florida State
2 South Carolina
3 Kansas State
4 Alabama
5 Oregon
6 Rutgers
7 Ohio State
8 Notre Dame
9 LSU
10 Fresno State
11 North Carolina
12 Texas A&M
13 Mississippi State
14 Arizona State
15 West Virginia
16 Georgia
17 Florida
18 TCU
19 Cincinnati
20 Texas Tech
21 Oklahoma
22 BYU
23 Boise State
24 Iowa
25 Louisiana Tech

Here are this year's Top 25 for the previous weeks:
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #5
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #4
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #3
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #2

Saturday, October 6, 2012

MLB Regular Season: Cabrera vs Trout

I had someone tweet me a few days ago asking who is better Miguel Cabrera or Mike Trout.  Well, given the Cabrera just won the triple crown - something that has not occurred since before I was born, it should be Cabrera by a mile - right?  Not exactly.

So, since we are comparing batters in the same season, the easiest method is to use the Blass Runs Produced measure of MLB batters.  So, that is what I am doing.  Now for the disclaimer:  since I have not had time to download and run the regression on the MLB 2012 season, I will use the weights for the statistics for the 2000-2011 regular seasons to evaluate the two players performance.  Each year, I try to tackle this in February when I get the itch for baseball (and the Lehman database is posted on the internet).

Given this disclaimer of using the 2000-2011 statistical weights from the runs scored linear regression, I calculate that Miguel Cabrera is slightly more productive than Mike Trout.  Cabrera comes in at 111.98 and Trout at 109.51, or a difference of just only about two and a half runs produced.  In the scheme of things, this is not a large difference.

For the details on how I made this calculation:

MLB Team Runs Productivity
MLB Batter Runs Productivity

Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Week 5: Best Defenses in NCAA Football

Yesterday I posted on the Top 25 NCAA FBS offense teams in terms of the complex invasion sports model. Today I am going to look at the Top 25 NCAA FBS teams in terms of points against (or defense). Thus I am only looking at points against using the four key factors of NCAA FBS production: acquiring the ball, maintaining possession, moving the ball and scoring efficiency. I also make allowances for different conferences.

Here is the list of the 2012 Top 25 NCAA "defenses" through week #5.


Rank Name  
1 Notre Dame
2 TCU
3 Texas Tech
4 Alabama
5 South Carolina
6 Stanford
7 Rutgers
8 Florida State
9 Oklahoma
10 UTSA
11 Texas A&M
12 Mississippi State
13 BYU
14 Boise State
15 LSU
16 Washington
17 Florida
18 Penn State
19 Cincinnati
20 Maryland
21 Michigan State
22 Kansas State
23 Arizona State
24 Temple
25 USC

Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Week 5: Best Offenses in NCAA Football

Yesterday I posted on the Top 25 NCAA FBS teams in terms of the complex invasion sports model.  Today I am going to look at the Top 25 NCAA FBS teams in terms of scoring (or offense).  Thus I am only looking at points scored using the four key factors of NCAA FBS production:  acquiring the ball, maintaining possession, moving the ball and scoring efficiency.  I also make allowances for different conferences.  I do not adjust for strength of schedule for reasons stated previously.  For those wondering about last season, here is the blog on strength of schedule and NCAA team performance.

Here is the list of the 2012 Top 25 NCAA "offenses" through week #5.


Rank Name  
1 Georgia
2 Florida State
3 Nevada
4 Oregon
5 Fresno State
6 UCLA
7 West Virginia
8 Clemson
9 Oklahoma State
10 Tennessee
11 Nebraska
12 Baylor
13 Marshall
14 North Carolina
15 Georgia Tech
16 Tulsa
17 Louisiana Tech
18 Arizona
19 LSU
20 Texas A&M
21 Miami (Florida)
22 Ohio State
23 Alabama
24 Ball State
25 Akron

Monday, October 1, 2012

2012 NCAA FBS Week 5

The NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision production model has Florida State University at #1 for the fourth week in a row (I did not do the first week, given that so many teams did not play games the first week).  For those interested here is an overview of the NCAA Football Complex Invasion Sports Model.  Here is the current Top 25.


Rank Team
1 Florida State
2 Alabama
3 Texas Tech
4 Georgia
5 LSU
6 Texas A&M
7 South Carolina
8 Oregon
9 Nebraska
10 UCLA
11 Arizona State
12 Ohio State
13 West Virginia
14 TCU
15 Fresno State
16 North Carolina
17 Kansas State
18 Mississippi State
19 BYU
20 Oklahoma State
21 Notre Dame
22 Nevada
23 Rutgers
24 Ohio
25 Clemson

Here are this year's Top 25 for the previous weeks:
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #4
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #3
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #2