Friday, November 30, 2012

2012 PAC 12 Conference Championship Game

This year PAC12 Conference's championship game will be between the Stanford Cardinal and the UCLA Bruins and will be held on Friday at Stanford.

Stanford is currently the #19 ranked team overall using my FBS college production model, with the currently #44 ranked offense and the currently #12 ranked defense.  UCLA is currently the #27 ranked team overall with the currently #14 ranked offense and the currently #56 ranked defense.  Both teams have played average schedules as compared to the average FBS strength of schedule.  Given the model has Stanford ranked higher than UCLA, the model would predict that the Stanford Cardinal will be victorious tonight.

2012 MAC Championship Game

This year the Mid-American Conference's championship game will be between the Northern Illinois Huskies and the Kent State Golden Flashes and will be held on Friday at Ford Field in Detroit Michigan.  This game will feature two nationally ranked BCS teams with Kent State ranked in the BCS poll at #17 and Northern Illinois ranked at #21.  My model has the two teams switched, so here are the basics.

Kent State is currently the #25 ranked team overall using my FBS college production model, with the currently #20 ranked offense and the currently #38 ranked defense.  Northern Illinois University is currently the #3 ranked team overall with the currently #3 ranked offense and the currently #15 ranked defense.  Both teams have played relatively easy schedules with NIU actually playing a strength of schedule that is more than two times the standard deviation from the average FBS strength of schedule.  Still, since the model has Northern Illinois University higher ranked in both offense, defense and overall, the model would predict that the NIU Huskies will be victorious tonight.

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Purdue Fires Head Football Coach

Purdue University has fired head football coach Danny Hope, and declining attendance seems to be a key factor.  Remember that Hope received a two year contract extension last year, not that it matters now.  So let's take a look at the Purdue Boilermakers using my Complex Invasion College Football production model to see how Purdue's football team has fared under Hope's tenure.

In 2009 Purdue went 5-7 and were bowl ineligible.  Purdue's most impressive victory was against #9 ranked Ohio State and their worst loss was to #81 ranked Minnesota.  Purdue finished as the #73 ranked team overall with the #78 ranked offense and the #63 ranked defense.

The following season, Purdue went 4-8 in the regular season.  Purdue's best win was against #75 ranked Northwestern and their worst loss was to #84 ranked in-state rival Indiana.  Purdue finished as the #92 ranked team overall with the #104 ranked offense and the #51 ranked defense.

In 2011 Purdue finished 6-6 in the regular season and finished with a win over #53 ranked Western Michigan to finish the season 7-6.  Purdue finished as the #71 ranked team overall, with the #64 ranked offense and the #69 ranked defense against an average strength of schedule for that season.

This year Purdue is 6-6 and bowl eligible at the time of Hope's firing.  Purdue is currently the #61 ranked team overall with the currently #52 ranked offense and the currently #64 ranked defense.  Purdue is currently ranked above Iowa, Minnesota, Indiana and Illinois - but this was not enough to keep Hope employed as the Boilermaker's head football coach.

Analysis of NCAA FBS coaches fired this season:
Arkansas's Smith,
Boston College's Spaziani,
Auburn's Chizik,
California's Tedford,
Western Michigan's Cubit,
Tennessee's Dooley,
Kentucky's Phillips,
Idaho's Akey.  

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Smith out at Arkansas

John L. Smith will not be back at the helm as the head football coach of the Arkansas Razorbacks next season.  Smith was a late hire as Arkansas fired Bobby Petrino late in the coaching carousel last year, and was only hired for this season.  So let's look at the Razorback's this season under former head coach Smith using the FBS college production model.

The Razorbacks finished the season at 4-8 and bowl ineligible.  First, Arkansas has played a much tougher schedule compared to the average strength of schedule for this season - five of their eight losses against currently ranked top 25 teams in the production model.  That said, Arkansas three of the four Arkansas wins were against teams currently ranked greater than 100 in the FBS college production model (#125 Jacksonville State, #106 Auburn and #111 Kentucky).  Arkansas best victory (19-15) was against currently ranked #34 Tulsa and their worst defeat was a 27-30 loss against currently ranked #50 Mississippi.  Even with this difficult schedule, the Razorbacks are currently the #96 team overall - finishing third from the bottom in the SEC; and currently have both the #87 ranked offense and defense.

Analysis of NCAA FBS coaches fired this season:
Boston College's Spaziani,
Auburn's Chizik,
California's Tedford,
Western Michigan's Cubit,
Tennessee's Dooley,
Kentucky's Phillips,
Idaho's Akey.

Boston College Fires Spaziani

Boston College has fired head football coach Frank Spaziani, so as I have done previously let's take a look at the Boston College Eagles during Spaziani's four year tenure as BC's head football coach using my FBS college football production model.  In Spaziani's first year (2009) BC went 8-4 in the regular season and finished 8-5 with a 24-13 loss to USC in the Emerald Bowl.  Boston College's most impressive win was against #13 ranked Central Michigan and their least impressive outing was a 16-20 loss against #54 Notre Dame.  Boston College played a much tougher schedule than the average FBS schedule during 2009, with a strength of schedule (SOS) of 53.23 as compared to the average of 63.27.  In terms of overall productivity, BC finished as the #51 ranked team overall, with the #67 ranked offense and the #34 ranked defense.

In Spaziani's second year at the helm, the BC Eagles finished the regular season at 7-5 with a loss to Nevada in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl finishing the season at 7-6.  BC had a tough schedule again as compared to the FBS schools, having a SOS of 51.15 vs. the average of 62.92.  The Eagles finished ranked #59 overall, with their offense ranked #95 and their defense ranked #7.  Thus from the previous year, the team's overall performance (in terms of productivity) declined slightly with a big drop in offense and a large increase in defense.

The Boston College Eagles had a large drop both in winning percent and in terms of on-field production in 2011.  BC finished 4-8 (bowl ineligible) with their most impressive win against #70 ranked North Carolina State and their less impressive game resulting in a one point loss to #113 ranked Duke.  BC's on field production left them ranked #97 overall, #110 in terms of points scored and #84 in terms of points given up, all worst than the season before.  Coupled with an average SOS relative to the rest of the league, I would sum up this season as a disappointment to Eagles fans.

This season was basically a repeat of last season.  While the Eagles had two fewer victories finishing 2-10, the team's overall on-field production left them currently ranked as the #102 team in FBS football, with a slight improvement (currently) as the #106 ranked offense and a slight decline in terms of defense as the currently ranked #86 defense.  Again, BC's strength of schedule was average as compared to the FBS "league" overall.

Given a steady decline in terms of winning percent and on-field production, BC has decided to move in a different direction in terms of leadership for their football team.

Analysis of NCAA FBS coaches fired this season:
Auburn's Chizik,
California's Tedford,
Western Michigan's Cubit,
Tennessee's Dooley,
Kentucky's Phillips,
Idaho's Akey

Duke Extends Cutcliffe's Contract

ESPN reports that Duke University has extended head football coach David Cutcliffe's contract through June 2019.  Given the contract extension, let's take a look at how Duke's football team has performed using my FBS college football production model under Cutcliffe's tenure since taking the helm as Duke's head football coach in 2008.

In Cutcliffe's first season (2008) the Duke Blue Devils went 4-8.  Duke's best outing was a 41-31 victory against #52 Navy; and their worst performance was a 17-27 loss to #78 North Carolina State.  Duke finished the season as the #84 ranked college football team overall in FBS college football, with the #85 ranked offense and the #64 ranked defense.  Duke played a strength of schedule (SOS) of 62.67 which is almost exactly the average SOS for that season of a 62.79.  Thus Duke ended up as a below average team playing an average strength of schedule.

The following season the Blue Devils went 5-7.  The Blue Devils best game that season was a 49-28 victory over #71 North Carolina State, while their worst game was a 16-24 loss to FCS Richmond.  The Blue Devils finished the season as the #80 ranked team overall, with the #95 ranked offense and the #53 ranked defense.  As you can see the Blue Devils improved a small amount from the 2008 season and the Blue Devils played a SOS of 69.00 against an average SOS of 63.27, which is about average for teams of that season (i.e. within one standard deviation of the average SOS).

In the 2010 season Duke finished 3-9 with Duke playing their best game winning 34-31 against the #42 ranked Navy, while Duke's worst performance was a 48-54 loss to #104 ranked Wake Forest.  Duke's performance that season resulted in the team to finish the season as the #109 ranked team overall, with the #102 ranked offense and the #112 ranked defense.  In terms of the production model Duke's performance was worse in 2010 than in the previous two seasons.

The 2011 season saw Duke finish the season again at 3-9.  This team saw Duke's best performance against #61 ranked Florida International University and their worse performance in terms of production was a 21-23 loss against FCS Richmond.  The Blue Devils finished the season as the #113 ranked team overall, with the #112 ranked offense and the #109 ranked defense.  As you can see these last two seasons Duke was in the bottom sixth of the FBS college football.

For this season (2012), Duke is currently 6-5 being bowl eligible.  Duke is currently the #88 ranked overall team in college football and currently had the #87 ranked offense and the #83 ranked defense.  Duke's best win this season was a 33-30 victory over currently #22 North Carolina Tar Heels and their worst loss was 41-20 to currently #78 ranked Virginia Tech.  Duke has played a SOS of 60.54 as compared to the current average SOS of 67.58.

Thus since 2008, Duke's best performance in terms of team productivity was the 80th ranked team in FBS.  Either way Duke has been below average for each of the last five seasons, and Duke extends their head football coaches contract, while Western Michigan fires their head football coach.

Monday, November 26, 2012

Chizik Fired from Auburn

Auburn University's head football coach Gene Chizik was fired yesterday.  So let's take a look at Auburn during Chizik's tenure as the Tigers head football coach using my FBS college football production model.

Chizik was hired for the 2009 season and Auburn finished the regular season at 7-5 and won the Outback Bowl 38-35 in OT over Northwestern to finish the season at 8-5.  During this season, Auburn's best win was over #23 ranked Tennessee Volunteers and their worst loss was to #70 ranked Georgia.  Auburn finished the season (in terms of on-field production) as the #34 ranked team overall and the #16 ranked offense and the #77 ranked defense playing against a strength of schedule of 58.15 which is within one standard deviation of the average strength of schedule for that season.

2010 was Auburn's national championship year, with Auburn going 12-0 in the regular season, winning the SEC championship over South Carolina 56-17 and defeating #3 ranked Oregon in the BCS championship game 22-19, with that game being Auburn's best win.  In terms of production, the Tigers finished #10 ranked overall team and #2 ranked offense and the #61 ranked defense.  Again, Auburn played a strength of schedule that was within one standard deviation of the average FBS strength of schedule.

Last season (2011) was not as good a performance for Auburn, even though the Tigers finished the regular season 7-5 and were bowl eligible and the Tigers defeated the Virginia Cavaliers in the Chick-fil-A bowl 43-24.  In terms of the model, Auburn was the #100 ranked team overall with the #62 ranked offense and the #102 ranked defense, playing against a strength of schedule that again was average for FBS teams.

This season Auburn was bad the whole year.  (I will put the week-by-week production numbers below).  Auburn finished the season at 3-9 and will miss out on a bowl game.  Auburn is currently the #106 ranked team in the nation (with only Kentucky as a worst productive team in the SEC), and Auburn is the #105 ranked offense and the #91 ranked defense - all below average for FBS teams.  Auburn's best win was against #48 ranked Louisianna-Monroe (by 3 points) and their worst loss was to #96 ranked Arkansas Razorbacks by 17 points.  Auburn did play a tougher than average schedule this season even including the November 17th meeting against Alabama A&M.

Not one time this season does the model have Auburn cracking the top 100 teams in terms of production, with their current rank about the best they have done all season.

Week
Offense
Defense
Overall
2
112
101
118
3
102
107
113
4
112
92
110
5
122
58
111
6
122
62
111
7
115
86
114
8
121
69
110
9
104
92
104
10
112
74
107
11
118
83
116
12
111
76
109
13
105
91
106

Analysis of NCAA FBS coaches fired this season:
California's Tedford,
Western Michigan's Cubit,
Tennessee's Dooley,
Kentucky's Phillips,
Idaho's Akey

2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 13

Here is the NCAA football bowl subdivision top 25 (in terms of on-field production) as of the end of week 13.  As you can see Alabama has re-taken the #1 spot in terms of production, with Notre Dame as the #4 most productive team in the nation.  Thanks to college football stats for posting the raw data.  I will be blogging about the teams of the recent head coaching firings and extensions as the week progresses.

Rank Team
1 Alabama
2 Oregon
3 Northern Illinois
4 Notre Dame
5 Florida State
6 Utah State
7 Georgia
8 Fresno State
9 Florida
10 Boise State
11 Ohio State
12 LSU
13 Cincinnati
14 Rutgers
15 San Jose State
16 Texas A&M
17 Kansas State
18 Nebraska
19 Stanford
20 Oklahoma
21 North Carolina
22 South Carolina
23 Clemson
24 BYU
25 Kent State

Here are this year's Top 25 for the previous weeks:
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #12
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #11
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #10
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #9
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #8
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #7
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #6
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #5
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #4
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #3
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #2

Saturday, November 24, 2012

Iron Bowl - 2012 Edition

For the last two seasons I have written about the Iron Bowl, so I thought that I would continue with one of the most fanatical games in college football.  (For those interested here are the links for the Iron Bowl in 2010 and 2011).

Alabama is currently ranked in terms of college football productivity as the #2 team in FBS college football with the #21 ranked offense and the #3 ranked defense.

Auburn on the other hand is currently ranked #109 overall with the #111 offense and #76 ranked defense.

As you can no doubt guess the college football model has Alabama as a much more productive team than Auburn and I would expect that Alabama will be victorious over Auburn.

Friday, November 23, 2012

California fires Jeff Tedford

ESPN reports that the California Golden Bears have fired their head football coach Jeff Tedford after 11 seasons as the head coach.  So let's take a look at the Golden Bears through the lens of my college football production model since 2008 - even though Tedford has been at California much longer than that.

This season (2012) California finished 3-9 and bowl ineligible.  California's best win this season was against currently #18 ranked UCLA and their worst loss was to currently #84 ranked Utah.  The other two wins by the Golden Bears were to below average teams (ranked #63 to #124) and all of their other games were played against currently ranked above average teams.  California has a strength of schedule of 47.58 which is currently almost twice as difficult as the average strength of schedule in FBS college football.  California is currently the #100 ranked team overall with the currently #68 ranked offense and the currently #111 ranked defense.

In 2011 the Golden Bears finished at 7-5 in the regular season and 7-6 overall with a loss to the University of Texas in the Bridgeport Education Holiday Bowl.  The Golden Bears best win was against #49 Fresno State at the beginning of the season and their worst loss was to #101 UCLA.  The Golden Bears had an overall rank of #80 with the 70th best offense and the 73rd best defense.

The 2010 season was slightly worse than the 2011 season in terms of wins with Cal going 5-7 overall and thus not qualifying for a bowl game.  Cal's best win that season was against #61 Arizona State and their worst defeat was to the #87 Oregon State Beavers.  Cal finished the season as the #65 ranked team overall and the #86 offense and the #26 defense.

In 2009 California finished the regular season 8-4 and lost to #22 Utah in their bowl game finishing the year at 8-5.  California was the #35 overall ranked team with the #25 ranked offense and the #57 ranked defense.  California's best win was against #41 Arizona Wildcats and their worst loss was to the #75 Washington Huskies.  California played a almost average strength of schedule of a 63.54 as compared to an average strength of schedule of 63.27.

Finally, (at least in terms of the data that I have for the model) in the 2008 season the California Golden Bears finished at 9-4 with their best win over #11 Oregon and their worst loss to #76 Maryland.  California was the #14 most productive team in the nation that year with the #18 most productive offense and the #17 most productive defense.

Thus over the last five seasons we have seen a steady decline of the California Golden Bears in terms of overall productivity, and as a result California is now looking to replace their head football coach.

Analysis of NCAA FBS coaches fired this season:
Western Michigan's Cubit,
Tennessee's Dooley,
Kentucky's Phillips,
Idaho's Akey

Thursday, November 22, 2012

ESPN Will Televise FBS College Football Playoffs

The Wall Street Journal reports that ESPN will televise the upcoming FBS college football playoffs:  12 years for $5.64 billion or about $470 million per year.

Big Ten Conference Adds Maryland and Rutgers

Earlier this week the Big Ten conference has added the University of Maryland and Rutgers University to its members, bringing the conference up to fourteen universities for the 2014/15 academic year assuming Rutgers can get out of their contract with the Big East Conference.  So let's take a look at both Maryland and Rutgers football teams in terms of the college football productivity model for this season through week 12.

The University of Maryland currently plays in the ACC conference and I wrote about Maryland after their former head football coach Ralph Friedgen's contract was bought out..  As of last Saturday Maryland was 4-7 and currently ranked #94 overall with their offense currently ranked #117 and their defense currently ranked #36 in FBS college football.  Maryland has played a strength of schedule equal to 71.09 which is basically the same as the average strength of schedule in FBS college football.  Maryland's best win so far has been a 27-20 victory over currently #87 ranked Virginia and their worst loss has been to 20-17 to currently ranked #106 Boston College.  If we include both Maryland and Rutgers in the Big Ten Conference for this season - making 14 teams, Maryland would be second to the bottom - with only Illinois being worse.

I will be blogging more on Maryland in late February of next year when I look at Maryland after Ralph Friedgen

Rutgers University currently plays in the Big East Conference and is 9-1 and currently ranked #14 overall with the currently #82 ranked offense and currently #2 ranked defense in all of FBS college football.  Rutgers has played against a strength of schedule of 79.40 which is easier than the current average college football strength of schedule.  Rutger's best win so far was a 10-3 win over currently #21 ranked Cincinnati and their only loss so far has been to currently #42 ranked Kent State.  Including both Maryland and Rutgers in the Big Ten standing for this year would have Rutgers as the 3rd highest Big Ten team.

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Western Michigan Terminates Head Coach Cubit's Contract

ESPN reports that Western Michigan University has terminated head football coach Bill Cubit's contract - which still has one year remaining.  Given the departure of head coach Cubit, let's take a look at how Western Michigan has performed using my Complex Invastion College Football production model over the last few seasons under Cubit's tenure.  Note that Bill Cubit became head football coach in 2005, but I my model does not go back that far due to data limitations, so I will start with the 2008 season for the Western Michigan Broncos.

2008
The Western Michigan Broncos finished the regular season at 9-3, losing their bowl game to Rice in that season.  Western Michigan best win that season was against #33 Northern Illinois and their worst loss was to #46 Central Michigan.  Western Michigan finished as the #51 team overall in FBS college football and had the #36 ranked offense and the #76 ranked defense.  The Broncos played against a strength of schedule (SOS) of 65.85 which is similar to the season average SOS of 62.79.

2009
This was a rather poor season with the Broncos finishing 5-7 and ineligible for a college bowl game.  WMU's best win that season was against #67 ranked Buffalo and the Broncos worst loss was to #110 Ball State at home to finish out the regular season.  Western Michigan finished as the #93 college football team in the nation that year, with the #77 ranked offense and the #95 ranked defense.  The Broncos played against a SOS of 82.58 which is substantially easier than the average SOS of 63.27.

2010
For the 2010 campaign Western Michigan finished 6-6 (bowl eligible - but uninvited).  The Broncos best win as against #55 Kent St. and their worst performance was a loss to #81 Central Michigan.  WMU finished as the #58 ranked team overall, with the #51 ranked offense and the #63 ranked defense.  Western Michigan played against a SOS of 76.17 which is easier than the average SOS of 62.92.

2011
Last year Western Michigan had a very productive team.  The Broncos finished 7-5 in the regular season and finished with a loss to the Purdue Boilermakers in the Little Caesars Bowl - even though Western Michigan was the more productive team going into the game.  The Broncos best win was against #34 ranked Miami (OH) and their worst performance was against #35 Eastern Michigan.  Western Michigan finished the campaign as the #22 most productive team in the nation with the #24 most productive offense and the #32 most productive defense.  WMU played against a SOS of 53.54 which was more difficult than the average SOS of 63.49 for that season.

2012
This season the Western Michigan Broncos finished the regular season at 4-8 and are ineligible for a bowl game.  The Broncos best win was against currently #64 ranked Connecticut and their worst loss was to currently #117 Illinois.  Western Michigan is currently the #65 ranked team in all of NCAA FBS college football (this will change over the next month) with the currently #43 ranked offense and the #81 ranked defense.  WMU has played against a SOS of 81.17 as compared to the currently SOS average of 67.58.  Since this is greater than one standard deviation from the mean SOS I would conclude that WMU has had an easier than average schedule this season.

Given the last five seasons performance by Western Michigan football team I find terminating head coach Bill Cubit's contract difficult to agree with, especially with all of the academic gains made as mentioned in the articled linked in this paragraph.  Cubit's teams over the last five years finished #51, #93, #58, #22 and currently ranked #65 in college football, which is above average for a Mid-American conference school.

Analysis of NCAA FBS coaches fired this season:
Tennessee's Dooley,
Kentucky's Phillips,
Idaho's Akey.

Tuesday, November 20, 2012

Tennessee Fires Derek Dooley

ESPN reported that Tennessee has fired head football coach Derek Dooley near the end of his third season with the Volunteers.  So, I got to thinking that this would be a good time to look at how the University of Tennessee has performed under Dooley's tenure from 2010 to 2012 using my NCAA college football model.

After Lane Kiffin's unexpected departure from Tennessee, Dooley took over as head football coach starting in 2010 and the University of Tennessee went 6-6 in the regular season and 3-5 against SEC opponents, and finished 6-7 with an overtime loss to North Carolina in the Music City Bowl.  Tennessee's best win was against #48 ranked Kentucky and their worst loss was against #44 Florida in 2010.  Tennessee finished as the #67 team overall, with the #65 offense and the #50 defense.  Tennessee's strength of schedule (SOS) was 57.15 which was more difficult than the average SOS of 62.92 for the entire season.

The next season (2011) saw Tennessee finish 5-7 in the regular season and ineligible for a bowl game.  Tennessee went 1-7 against SEC teams.  Tennessee's best win was against #42 Buffalo and their worst loss was against #109 Kentucky.  Tennessee finished as the #94 team in FBS college football and had the #106 ranked offense and the #81 ranked defense.  Tennessee's SOS was 61.17 which is slightly more difficult than the average SOS for that season of a 63.49.

This season (2012) Tennessee is currently 4-7 and 0-7 in the SEC.  To date, Tennessee's best win is against currently #60 ranked Troy and their worst loss is to currently #91 Missouri.  Tennessee is currently the #66 ranked team overall (slightly below average) and has the #31 ranked offense and the #101 ranked defense.  Tennessee currently has played against a SOS of 54.36 compared to currently an average SOS of 67.58.  Since Tennessee's SOS is greater than one standard deviation from the average SOS, I would classify Tennessee as having played a difficult schedule so far this season, although this could change since they play the University of Kentucky Wildcats next.

Analysis of NCAA college football teams head coaches fired this season:
Idaho's Akey,
Kentucky's Phillips.

Monday, November 19, 2012

2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #12

Here is the latest NCAA FBS college football Top 25 in terms of on-field production.  Notice that even with Oregon's loss this past weekend, in terms of overall production the Ducks are still the most productive team in the nation and are #1 overall.  Alabama moves up to #2 and Florida State drops to #3 in terms of production.  Data comes from www.cfbstats.com.

Rank Team
1 Oregon
2 Alabama
3 Florida State
4 Notre Dame
5 Northern Illinois
6 Georgia
7 Utah State
8 Fresno State
9 Boise State
10 Texas A&M
11 Nebraska
12 Ohio State
13 Oklahoma
14 Rutgers
15 Clemson
16 LSU
17 Kansas State
18 UCLA
19 San Jose State
20 Louisiana Tech
21 Cincinnati
22 North Carolina
23 Florida
24 Stanford
25 Arizona State

Here are this year's Top 25 for the previous weeks:
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #11
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #10
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #9
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #8
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #7
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #6
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #5
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #4
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #3
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #2

Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Jimbo Fisher and the BCS Computer Models

Florida State head coach Jimbo Fisher is not fond of computer rankings in the BCS.  Here is a short video of his statements.  I wonder if he would feel the same using the production ranking that has Florida State at #2 in the nation?  Here is a video of head coach Fisher's comments.


So, naturally I thought of looking at Florida State this year to see why my college football model has the Seminoles currently as the #2 ranked team overall (and #1 for much of the year)?  My model has FSU having the #5 ranked offense and the #8 ranked defense.  To put his in perspective, Florida State is currently the only FBS school to be in the top 10 in both offense and defense in my model.

As I mentioned yesterday, the model looks at on-field production in terms of what and how much various on-field actions affect points scored and points surrendered and then ranks each team in terms of their production relative to the other 123 FBS teams.

Here is FSU's 2012 regular season schedule.

Date
Opponent
PF
PA
Result
Site
SOS
9/1/2012
Murray St.
69
3
Won
Home
125
9/8/2012
Savannah St.
55
0
Won
Home
125
9/15/2012
Wake Forest
52
0
Won
Home
94
9/22/2012
Clemson
49
37
Won
Home
43
9/29/2012
South Fla.
30
17
Won
Away
74
10/6/2012
North Carolina St.
16
17
Loss
Away
71
10/13/2012
Boston College
51
7
Won
Home
62
10/20/2012
Miami (FL)
33
20
Won
Away
100
10/27/2012
Duke
48
7
Won
Home
39
11/8/2012
Virginia Tech
28
22
Won
Away
75
11/17/2012
Maryland






Away

11/24/2012
Florida






Home


Notice that the first two games the Seminoles played were against non-FBS teams (hence a Strength of Schedule or SOS of 125 for those schools).  Now the model that I use includes team performance against non-FBS schools.  I grant that this might not be the best, but is what I am currently using.  All of the BCS computer models and the USA Today and Harris Poll use performance by FBS schools against non-FBS schools and some of the BCS computer models use FCS school performance to rank FBS schools.  So, my use of on-field production by FBS schools against non-FBS schools is not different from current BCS rankings systems.  Someday I will go back and take out the non-FBS performance and see how this matters, but for now I will include it.

With that issue addressed, notice that the Seminoles are 9-1 with a one-point loss to North Carolina State.  Florida State has consistently been more productive than the teams they have played and even the North Carolina State game was fairly evenly matched in terms or on-field production.  Otherwise, Florida State has out produced their opponents in each game they played this year with the exception of Virginia Tech - which FSU won.  Finally, from the table above, notice that FSU has played a rather easy schedule with a current strength of schedule of 80.8, which is easier than the average league strength of schedule of 67.52.

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Northern Illinois University

A few weeks ago I was asked about the Northern Illinois University Huskies, so I thought that I would look at the NIU Huskies (currently #4 overall in my model) week-by-week (excluding the first week of the season) and use this as a way of highlighting what the model does.

Let's quickly review what the college football model is measuring.  The model looks a the on-field statistics that significantly affect the ability of a team to score points and also the ability of a team to stop their opponent from scoring points.  To do that I use on-field statistics measuring the teams (and their opponents) ability to:  acquire possession of the ball; move the ball down the field; maintain possession of the ball; scoring efficiency; and adjust for the number of games played and the conference the team plays in.  Once I have collected theses statistics for each team and similar statistics for the team's opponent, I use a statistical model to determine whether the variables I am using are significant, and if they are, to estimate the weights of all the variables I am using.  Once I have the weights of the statistically significant variables I calculate the overall production of the team to score points (which I refer to as offense) and the overall production of the team to stop their opponent from scoring points (which I refer to as defense).  Taking these two calculations I subtract the defense from the offense and arrive at the final team production.  Then all I do is sort from highest to lowest all the team's total production to determine each team's rank.

When a team performs better than other teams in terms of either offense or defense, they will increase in their relative rank to other teams in the football bowl subdivision and when team perform poorer than the others they will fall in the overall rank.

Here is Northern Illinois University through week #11 (although they did not play this week).


Offense Defense Total Week Date Opponent PF PA Result Place
Rank Rank Rank






--- --- --- 1 9/1/2012 Iowa 17 18 Loss Neutral Site
85 4 42 2 9/8/2012 Tenn.-Martin 35 7 Win Home
54 58 50 3 9/15/2012 Army 41 40 Win Away
48 54 56 4 9/22/2012 Kansas 30 23 Win Home
26 69 39 5 9/29/2012 Central Mich. 55 24 Win Home
16 65 31 6 10/6/2012 Ball St. 35 23 Win Away
6 22 3 7 10/13/2012 Buffalo 45 3 Win Home
10 29 9 8 10/20/2012 Akron 37 7 Win Away
37 35 28 9 10/27/2012 Western Mich. 48 34 Win Away
2 26 4 10 11/3/2012 Massachusetts 63 0 Win Home
9 16 4 11 11/10/2012 ---




Notice that other than the first game against Iowa (a narrow loss), Northern Illinois University has been above average in terms of their overall rank.  As the season has progressed, Northern Illinois University's on-field production on offense has increased and their opponents on-field production has decreased.  In weeks they have been very productive, they have moved up in the rankings and in weeks they have been less productive, they have moved back.  Take for example the Western Michigan game on Oct. 27th.  Western Michigan gained more yards, had more first downs and had greater scoring efficiency than Northern Illinois.  Given this, NIU's overall ranking dropped from #9 in week #8 to an overall ranking of #28 in week #9.  As NIU's overall on-field performance has relatively increased, so has their overall ranking.

Monday, November 12, 2012

2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 11

With the loss by Alabama this past week, we have a new #1 team according to the complex invastion college football model, and that is Oregon.  Here is the top 25 ranking.


Rank Team
1 Oregon
2 Florida State
3 Alabama
4 Northern Illinois
5 Kansas State
6 Georgia
7 Notre Dame
8 Utah State
9 Texas A&M
10 Fresno State
11 Ohio State
12 Louisiana Tech
13 Oklahoma
14 Clemson
15 San Jose State
16 Boise State
17 UCLA
18 Cincinnati
19 Rutgers
20 Nebraska
21 LSU
22 Stanford
23 USC
24 Tulsa
25 UCF


Here are this year's Top 25 for the previous weeks:
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #10
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #9
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #8
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #7
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #6
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #5
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #4
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #3
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #2

Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Kentucky Football Under Head Coach Joker Phillips

The University of Kentucky has announced that Joker Phillips will not return as head football coach for next season. So let's take a look at Kentucky's football program using the lens of the complex invasion college football model over his tenure as head football coach at Kentucky.

Joker Phillips took the reigns of the Kentucky football program from Rich Brooks in the 2010 season, going 6-6 in the regular season and losing (27-10) to Pittsburgh in the BBVA Compass Bowl.  Kentucky finished the season as the #48 ranked team in the nation, with the 35th ranked offense and the #78 ranked defense (using my model).  Kentucky's best win that season was against #30 ranked South Carolina and their worst loss was to #92 Mississippi.  Kentucky was 2-6 against SEC opponents that season and played against a final strength of schedule of 62.69 as compared to an overall league average strength of schedule equal to 62.92.  Thus Kentucky played against almost exactly an average strength of schedule in 2010.

The 2011 season was not good for Kentucky football.  While the team finished 5-7 overall, they were not really even that good according to the complex invasion college football model.  Kentucky finished ranked #109 overall (only Mississippi was worse in the SEC) with the #118 ranked offense and the #95 ranked defense.  In other words, Kentucky had the third worst offense in all of the FBS in 2011.  Kentucky's best win was against #48 ranked Central Michigan and their worst loss was against #86 ranked Louisville.  Kentucky finished 2-6 in the SEC with wins over Mississippi and Tennessee, both way below average in their ranking from the model's perspective.  Kentucky also faced an easier than average strength of schedule with their strength of schedule of 73.00 as compared to the average strength of schedule of 63.49.

This season has also been below average.  Kentucky at the time of the announcement that Joker Phillips will not return is 1-9 and 0-7 in conference play.  In fact, Kentucky is currently the worst SEC football team according to the complex invasion college sport model.  Kentucky's only win is against #42 ranked Kent State.  Kentucky (according to the complex invasion college football model) is the #116 ranked team overall in the Football Bowl Subdivision with the #116 ranked offense and the #99 ranked defense. In Kentucky's defense, they have played a strength of schedule equal to 39.00 as compared to the average strength of schedule of 67.87 as of last week.  Even still, this was not enough for Phillips to remain as head football coach.

Other head coaches fired:
Idaho's Akey.

Monday, November 5, 2012

2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 10

Alabama moves back to the #1 spot using my model.  Here is the top 25.


Rank Team
1 Alabama
2 Florida State
3 Oregon
4 Northern Illinois
5 Kansas State
6 Georgia
7 Notre Dame
8 Oklahoma
9 Ohio State
10 LSU
11 Fresno State
12 Texas A&M
13 UCLA
14 North Carolina
15 Florida
16 Rutgers
17 Stanford
18 Cincinnati
19 Clemson
20 Nebraska
21 Louisville
22 Boise State
23 Arizona State
24 South Carolina
25 Bowling Green

Here are this year's Top 25 for the previous weeks:
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #9
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #8
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #7
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #6
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #5
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #4
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #3
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week #2