The Iron Bowl - 2011 Edition

Last year I wrote a short piece on the Iron Bowl, and for the first half all looked well. Then Auburn stormed back and won the game, propelling them to the SEC championship and the national championship game.

So let's take a quick look at the Iron Bowl 2011 game through the eyes of the FBS production model.

Earlier this season, I took a look at the Alabama Crimson Tide when they faced the LSU Tigers, and in terms of the model and strength of schedule, you will notice some differences in the numbers from the model - just like now the teams won-loss record is different. As more games (and data) are played, the rankings and strength of schedule change. So with that in mind, starting with the Alabama Crimson Tide, they currently are 10-1 against a schedule strength of 63.3. The FBS production model has Alabama currently as the #4 highest ranked team in the nation. On the offensive side of the ball Alabama is ranked #37. Alabama currently has the #1 defense in the nation. To see who Alabama has played and their current rank, here is their regular season schedule.

Date		Opponent		PF		PA		SOS		Result
9/3/2011		Kent St.		48		7		75		W
9/10/2011		Penn St.		27		11		24		W
9/17/2011		North Texas		41		0		105		W
9/24/2011		Arkansas		38		14		20		W
10/1/2011		Florida		38		10		61		W
10/8/2011		Vanderbilt		34		0		39		W
10/15/2011		Ole Miss		52		7		112		W
10/22/2011		Tennessee		37		6		73		W
11/5/2011		LSU		6		9		3		L
11/12/2011		Mississippi St.		24		7		63		W
11/19/2011		Ga. Southern		45		21		121		W
11/26/2011		Auburn

Turning to the Auburn Tigers, who are 7-4 against a strength of schedule equal to 53.5 which is much more difficult than an average schedule. Auburn is the #80th ranked team in the nation. Yes, last year's "national champion" is currently a below average FBS team. The Auburn Tigers are currently the #76th ranked offense and currently the #80th ranked defense.

Date		Opponent		PF		PA		SOS		Result
9/3/2011		Utah St.		42		38		27		W
9/10/2011		Mississippi St.		41		34		63		W
9/17/2011		Clemson		24		38		54		L
9/24/2011		Fla. Atlantic		30		14		107		W
10/1/2011		South Carolina		16		13		11		W
10/8/2011		Arkansas		14		38		20		L
10/15/2011		Florida		17		6		61		W
10/22/2011		LSU		10		45		3		L
10/29/2011		Ole Miss		41		23		112		W
11/12/2011		Georgia		7		45		9		L
11/19/2011		Samford		35		16		121		W
11/26/2011		Alabama

So in terms of the NCAA FBS production model Alabama is significantly more productive than Auburn. I made the same prediction last year - Alabama over Auburn.