LSU vs Arkansas - 2011

On November 25th LSU faces the University of Arkansas. In terms of BCS rankings, LSU is ranked #1 and Arkansas is ranked #3.

Earlier in the season, I examined LSU and Alabama. You will notice that the rankings and strength of schedule have changed since then, as more data changes each.

LSU is currently 11-0. In terms of the NCAA FBS Production model, LSU is the #3 ranked team overall with the #14 ranked offense and the 2nd highest ranked defense as of last weekend. LSU has played against a strength of schedule equal to 67.09, which is slightly easier than the average strength of schedule. Here is LSU's regular season schedule.

Date		Opponent		PF		PA		SOS		Result
9/3/2011		Oregon		40		27		8		W
9/10/2011		Northwestern St.		49		3		121		W
9/15/2011		Mississippi St.		19		6		63		W
9/24/2011		West Virginia		47		21		17		W
10/1/2011		Kentucky		35		7		102		W
10/8/2011		Florida		41		11		61		W
10/15/2011		Tennessee		38		7		73		W
10/22/2011		Auburn		45		10		80		W
11/5/2011		Alabama		9		6		4		W
11/12/2011		Western Ky.		42		9		97		W
11/19/2011		Ole Miss		52		3		112		W
11/25/2011		Arkansas

Arkansas is currently 10-1, with their only loss to Alabama. From the NCAA FBS production model, the University of Arkansas is the #20 ranked team overall with the #17 ranked offense and the #41 ranked defense. Arkansas has played against a strength of schedule equal to 69.5 - again easier than the average strength of schedule.

Date		Opponent		PF		PA		SOS		Result
9/3/2011		Missouri St.		51		7		121		W
9/10/2011		New Mexico		52		3		119		W
9/17/2011		Troy		38		28		95		W
9/24/2011		Alabama		14		38		4		L
10/1/2011		Texas A&M		42		38		47		W
10/8/2011		Auburn		38		14		80		W
10/22/2011		Ole Miss		29		24		112		W
10/29/2011		Vanderbilt		31		28		39		W
11/5/2011		South Carolina		44		28		11		W
11/12/2011		Tennessee		49		7		73		W
11/19/2011		Mississippi St.		44		17		63		W
11/25/2011		LSU

Thus in terms of the production model, LSU is the better team on defense relative to Arkansas' defense and thus from the data and the model's weights, LSU is expected to win.