Earlier in the season, I examined LSU and Alabama. You will notice that the rankings and strength of schedule have changed since then, as more data changes each.
LSU is currently 11-0. In terms of the NCAA FBS Production model, LSU is the #3 ranked team overall with the #14 ranked offense and the 2nd highest ranked defense as of last weekend. LSU has played against a strength of schedule equal to 67.09, which is slightly easier than the average strength of schedule. Here is LSU's regular season schedule.
| Date | Opponent | PF | PA | SOS | Result | |||||
| 9/3/2011 | Oregon | 40 | 27 | 8 | W | |||||
| 9/10/2011 | Northwestern St. | 49 | 3 | 121 | W | |||||
| 9/15/2011 | Mississippi St. | 19 | 6 | 63 | W | |||||
| 9/24/2011 | West Virginia | 47 | 21 | 17 | W | |||||
| 10/1/2011 | Kentucky | 35 | 7 | 102 | W | |||||
| 10/8/2011 | Florida | 41 | 11 | 61 | W | |||||
| 10/15/2011 | Tennessee | 38 | 7 | 73 | W | |||||
| 10/22/2011 | Auburn | 45 | 10 | 80 | W | |||||
| 11/5/2011 | Alabama | 9 | 6 | 4 | W | |||||
| 11/12/2011 | Western Ky. | 42 | 9 | 97 | W | |||||
| 11/19/2011 | Ole Miss | 52 | 3 | 112 | W | |||||
| 11/25/2011 | Arkansas |
Arkansas is currently 10-1, with their only loss to Alabama. From the NCAA FBS production model, the University of Arkansas is the #20 ranked team overall with the #17 ranked offense and the #41 ranked defense. Arkansas has played against a strength of schedule equal to 69.5 - again easier than the average strength of schedule.
| Date | Opponent | PF | PA | SOS | Result | |||||
| 9/3/2011 | Missouri St. | 51 | 7 | 121 | W | |||||
| 9/10/2011 | New Mexico | 52 | 3 | 119 | W | |||||
| 9/17/2011 | Troy | 38 | 28 | 95 | W | |||||
| 9/24/2011 | Alabama | 14 | 38 | 4 | L | |||||
| 10/1/2011 | Texas A&M | 42 | 38 | 47 | W | |||||
| 10/8/2011 | Auburn | 38 | 14 | 80 | W | |||||
| 10/22/2011 | Ole Miss | 29 | 24 | 112 | W | |||||
| 10/29/2011 | Vanderbilt | 31 | 28 | 39 | W | |||||
| 11/5/2011 | South Carolina | 44 | 28 | 11 | W | |||||
| 11/12/2011 | Tennessee | 49 | 7 | 73 | W | |||||
| 11/19/2011 | Mississippi St. | 44 | 17 | 63 | W | |||||
| 11/25/2011 | LSU |
Thus in terms of the production model, LSU is the better team on defense relative to Arkansas' defense and thus from the data and the model's weights, LSU is expected to win.