Alabama vs. LSU - 2011

This weekend the Alabama Crimson Tide (ranked #2 in the BCS standings) face the Louisiana State Tigers (ranked #1 in the BCS standings). So let's take a look through the lens of the NCAA FBS production model as to how these two teams have fared up to this point in the season. Here is the top 25 most productive teams as of last weekend.

First, let's take a look at the Crimson Tide. Alabama is currently 8-0, but the Crimson Tide has played a rather weak schedule from the perspective of the NCAA FBS model, with a strength of schedule of 76.3, which is higher than an average strength of schedule equal to 60.5. In terms of the NCAA FBS production model, Alabama is currently the #3 team in the nation in overall production, with the #25th most productive offense and the #1 ranked defense. Here is Alabama's 2011 regular season schedule and their opponents strength of schedule as of this past weekend.

Date		Opponent		PF		PA		SOS	Venue
9/3/2011		Kent St.		48		7		108	Home
9/10/2011		Penn St.		27		11		27	Away
9/17/2011		North Texas		41		0		110	Home
9/24/2011		Arkansas		38		14		40	Home
10/1/2011		Florida		38		10		71	Away
10/8/2011		Vanderbilt		34		0		53	Home
10/15/2011		Ole Miss		52		7		113	Away
10/22/2011		Tennessee		37		6		88	Home
11/5/2011		LSU							Home
11/12/2011		Mississippi St.							Away
11/19/2011		Ga. Southern							Home
11/26/2011		Auburn							Away

LSU is currently 8-0 against a strength of schedule of 62.5, which is much closer to an average strength of schedule. In terms of overall productivity, LSU is the #5 ranked team overall, with the #22 ranked offense and the #2 ranked defense. Here is LSU's regular season schedule as well.

Date		Opponent		PF		PA		SOS	Venue
9/3/2011		Oregon		40		27		2	Neutral Site
9/10/2011		Northwestern St.		49		3		121	Home
9/15/2011		Mississippi St.		19		6		25	Away
9/24/2011		West Virginia		47		21		10	Away
10/1/2011		Kentucky		35		7		111	Home
10/8/2011		Florida		41		11		71	Home
10/15/2011		Tennessee		38		7		88	Away
10/22/2011		Auburn		45		10		72	Home
11/5/2011		Alabama							Away
11/12/2011		Western Ky.							Home
11/19/2011		Ole Miss							Away
11/25/2011		Arkansas							Home

As NCAA FBS fans already know, this game is a toss up - pitting two superior defenses against two excellent offenses. I wish the model could give some insight as to who was going to win, but it does not.