2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 2

With the second full week of NCAA FBS games finished, below is the latest Top 25 rankings using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.  According to the Complex Invasion College Football production model, the Boise State Broncos are currently the most productive team after the conclusion of the last week.

Rank	Team
1	Boise State
2	Ohio State
3	Georgia
4	TCU
5	Boston College
6	Oklahoma State
7	UCF
8	Oregon
9	Auburn
10	Oklahoma
11	Mississippi State
12	Wisconsin
13	Vanderbilt
14	Toledo
15	Missouri
16	West Virginia
17	Washington State
18	Alabama
19	Utah
20	Georgia Southern
21	North Texas
22	Louisiana Tech
23	Baylor
24	Virginia Tech
25	Arizona State

Previous 2018 Top 25 Rankings
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #1

2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 1

With the NCAA FBS full season under way (except for Akron, Iowa State and Nebraska - due to weather), I have decided to post the Top 25 rankings after the first week. Normally, I like to wait until the second week, but the results are good using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided at www.cfbstats.com.  According to the Complex Invasion College Football production model, the University of Memphis Tigers are the most productive team after the 66-13 defeat of Mercer during the first week.  Let's see how this holds up as teams start to play similar competition in a few weeks.

Rank	Team
1	Memphis
2	Toledo
3	Mississippi State
4	UAB
5	Fresno State
6	Texas A&M
7	TCU
8	Liberty
9	Florida
10	Oklahoma
11	UCF
12	Georgia
13	Arizona State
14	Nevada
15	Southern Mississippi
16	Oklahoma State
17	Utah
18	Charlotte
19	Ohio State
20	Eastern Michigan
21	Air Force
22	Georgia Tech
23	Houston
24	Ball State
25	Virginia

NCAA FBS Performance 2008 to 2012

Over the last few weeks I have wanted to look at how NCAA FBS teams have fared year to year.  After spending just a little time putting the data together, I have calculated the correlation coefficient (called r, which measures the degree to which two variables vary together or apart) and the coefficient of determination (called r2, which measures the proportion of variance in common between the two variables).  So I will present both statistics - though I will only be interpreting r2 as that is the statistic that looks at what I am interested in explaining.

Since the 2008 NCAA FBS season, the variation in common of winning percentage in one year to the next explains from 36% in the 2008-2009 seasons to 23.5% for the 2011-2012 seasons.

Winning Percent	r	r2
2008-2009	0.5999	0.3599
2009-2010	0.5257	0.2764
2010-2011	0.5527	0.3055
2011-2012	0.4851	0.2354

So given that NCAA FBS previous seasons winning percent explains less than half of the next seasons winning percent, how does the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model's ranking relate year to year?  As you can see in the table below the variation in total NCAA FBS Production Rank from one year to the next explains between 28% and 43% of the variation in total rank.

Total Rank	r	r2
2008-2009	0.6536	0.4272
2009-2010	0.5362	0.2875
2010-2011	0.6551	0.4291
2011-2012	0.5262	0.2769

In terms of offensive ranking, the previous seasons offensive rank explains from 19% to 34% and in terms of defensive ranking, the prior seasons defensive rank explains from 28% to 34%.

Off. Rank	r	r2
2008-2009	0.4830	0.2333
2009-2010	0.4853	0.2355
2010-2011	0.5861	0.3435
2011-2012	0.4439	0.1970
Def. Rank	r	r2
2008-2009	0.5833	0.3402
2009-2010	0.5296	0.2805
2010-2011	0.5511	0.3037
2011-2012	0.5334	0.2845

In each case, the previous season is not a great predictor of the next season in that the variation in common is less than 50%; which is what makes college football so interesting - that for the "league" as a whole we really cannot predict what will happen.

Nebraska Under Bo Pelini

December 2007 the University of Nebraska hired Bo Pelini as their new head football coach. Given that Pelini has five seasons under his belt, I thought that I would look at the University of Nebraska's program using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model. 

First let's take a look at the production of the Husker's football team starting with the 2008 season and move forward in time.  Nebraska finished 9-4 in 2008 overall.  The Huskers were the #34 most productive team in the Football Bowl Subdivision using my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model Ranking,  with the #17 ranked most productive offense and the #92 most productive defense.  All of this against a tougher (strength of schedule (SOS) = 51.62) than the 2008 season's average SOS of 62.94.  Nebraska's most impressive victory came against the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model #29 ranked Kansas Jayhawks (45 - 35) and their worst performance was a 30-35 loss to Complex Invasion College Football Production Model #47 ranked Virginia Tech.

In 2009 in terms of the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model the Husker's were ranked #16 in terms of overall production, which is an improvement from 2008.  In terms of offense and defense, the team switched with their offense dropping to #53 and their defense increasing to #9 in the nation.  Nebraska faced a strength of schedule equal to 58.43 - which is average as compared to the average SOS for 2009 of (62.97) and finished 8-4 in the regular season and 9-4 overall. The Cornhusker's best win was against the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model #8 University of Oklahoma Sooners (10-3) and their worst loss was to the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model #83 Iowa State (7-9).

In 2010 in terms of the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, Nebraska finished the regular season at 9-3 and lost their bowl game to Washington to finish 9-4 during the 2010 season.  The University of Nebraska finished again as the #16 most productive team overall in the football bowl subdivision with the #27 ranked offense and the #12 ranked defense.  The Husker's faced an average strength of schedule of 68.86 as compared to the overall league SOS of 63.05. Nebraska's best win using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model was against #12 Oklahoma State (51-41) and their worst loss was to the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model #86 Washington (7-19).  This was also the last year that Nebraska played in the Big 12.

The following season (2011) resulted in a similar end of season win-loss record (9-4) and saw a small decline in Nebraska's production in terms of the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model as the Husker's were the #23 most productive team in the Football Bowl Subdivision with the offense ranked using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model at #57 and their defense was ranked #16.  Nebraska played against a tougher SOS (37.54) as compared to the league average SOS of 63.57.  Note that this is the first year that Nebraska played in the Big 10 as opposed to the Big 12  Nebraska's best win was a (24-3) victory over #4 ranked Michigan State and their worst loss was to #37 South Carolina (13-30).

This past season (2012) the Husker's finished the regular season at 10-3 and lost the Capital One Bowl (as I predicted) against the University of Georgia to finish the season overall at 10-4.  Nebraska again played against a tougher SOS 51.86 which is greater than one standard deviation of schedule strengths given the "league's" SOS for 2012 of 65.53.  In terms of the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, Nebraska finished as the #35 ranked team overall with the #18 ranked offense, but having the #75 ranked defense. The Husker's best game that season was a 42-13 victory over #29 ranked Arkansas State using my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model and their worst performance was a 30-36 loss to #36 ranked UCLA Bruins using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Week 15

With the completion of the Army-Navy game on Saturday, the regular FBS season has now finished. In order to be complete, I have re-run the model including this last game and below are the rankings. You will notice that there is not much difference, (North Carolina State replaced Baylor at #24 in the NCAA FBS production ranking) but there is some differences in the total rankings, as previously Army and Navy were ranked against teams that had played more regular season games then they had, and now are more complete.
I have also included each teams current BCS rankings as well - if applicable.

Rank		School	BCS
1		Alabama	(2)
2		Oklahoma State	(3)
3		LSU	(1)
4		Houston	(6)
5		Wisconsin	(15)
6		Boise State	(7)
7		South Carolina	(12)
8		Oregon	(9)
9		Florida State	(-)
10		Stanford	(4)
11		Georgia Tech	(-)
12		TCU	(18)
13		Temple	(-)
14		Michigan	(16)
15		Michigan State	(13)
16		Oklahoma	(10)
17		Toledo	(-)
18		North Carolina	(-)
19		Cincinnati	(-)
20		Arkansas State	(-)
21		USC	(-)
22		Missouri	(25)
23		San Diego State	(-)
24		North Carolina State	(-)
25		West Virginia	(23)

Week 14 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 13 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 12 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 11 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 10 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 9 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 8 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 7 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 6 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 5 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 4 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 3 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking

Army vs Navy 2011

Today's Army-Navy game marks the end of the regular season in college FBS football for this year. As I did last year, let's take a look at these two teams for today's game.

Army is currently 3-8 playing against a strength of schedule equal to 64.0. Army's best win was against currently ranked #77 Northwestern and their worst loss was the following week against #104 Ball State. Army currently has the #55 most productive team in the nation - which is slightly above average, so their win/loss record shows they have had a rather "unlucky" season. Army has the 63rd most productive offense and the 42nd most productive defense.

Navy is in a similar situation. The Midshipman are 4-7 playing against a strength of schedule of 69.82. Navy's best win was against #61 SMU and their worst loss was against #95 East Carolina. Navy has consistently underperformed in terms of wins and losses this season. Navy has the #30 most productive team in the nation, with the #23rd most productive offense and the #52 most productive defense

Both teams have underperformed in terms of wins this season. Army has lost to Ball State, Miami (OH) and Rutgers. Each team is statistically less productive than Army, and thus Army should be at least a bowl eligible team this season. Navy has lost to East Carolina, Rutgers and San Jose State. Statistically the Midshipmen could have 7 or 8 wins as opposed to the four wins they currently have.

Given that Navy is a more productive team than Army this season, the model "predicts" that Navy will be the winner of the game today.

NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Week 14

Here is the latest NCAA FBS production top 25 rankings. Houston has dropped to #4 in the model, with Alabama jumping up to the #1 spot and Oklahoma State's excellent performance this weekend moving the Cowboys to #2 in the model. Thus, from just the team's production, Alabama and Oklahoma State should be playing in the "Championship" game, unless something really funny happens in the Army-Navy game.

So, after the Army-Navy game this coming weekend (yes, include all the data) I will have the final regular (and conference championship season top 25, and I will use the model at that point to evaluate each bowl game on the day the bowl game is played.)

I have also included each teams current BCS rankings as well - if applicable.

	Top 25 Production
Rank		School	BCS
1		Alabama	(2)
2		Oklahoma State	(3)
3		LSU	(1)
4		Houston	(6)
5		Wisconsin	(15)
6		Boise State	(7)
7		South Carolina	(12)
8		Oregon	(9)
9		Florida State	(-)
10		Stanford	(4)
11		Georgia Tech	(-)
12		TCU	(18)
13		Temple	(-)
14		Michigan	(16)
15		Michigan State	(13)
16		Oklahoma	(10)
17		Toledo	(-)
18		North Carolina	(-)
19		Cincinnati	(-)
20		Arkansas State	(-)
21		USC	(-)
22		Missouri	(25)
23		San Diego State	(-)
24		Baylor	(17)
25		West Virginia	(23)

Week 13 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 12 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 11 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 10 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 9 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 8 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 7 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 6 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 5 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 4 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 3 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking

LSU vs Arkansas - 2011

On November 25th LSU faces the University of Arkansas. In terms of BCS rankings, LSU is ranked #1 and Arkansas is ranked #3.

Earlier in the season, I examined LSU and Alabama. You will notice that the rankings and strength of schedule have changed since then, as more data changes each.

LSU is currently 11-0. In terms of the NCAA FBS Production model, LSU is the #3 ranked team overall with the #14 ranked offense and the 2nd highest ranked defense as of last weekend. LSU has played against a strength of schedule equal to 67.09, which is slightly easier than the average strength of schedule. Here is LSU's regular season schedule.

Date		Opponent		PF		PA		SOS		Result
9/3/2011		Oregon		40		27		8		W
9/10/2011		Northwestern St.		49		3		121		W
9/15/2011		Mississippi St.		19		6		63		W
9/24/2011		West Virginia		47		21		17		W
10/1/2011		Kentucky		35		7		102		W
10/8/2011		Florida		41		11		61		W
10/15/2011		Tennessee		38		7		73		W
10/22/2011		Auburn		45		10		80		W
11/5/2011		Alabama		9		6		4		W
11/12/2011		Western Ky.		42		9		97		W
11/19/2011		Ole Miss		52		3		112		W
11/25/2011		Arkansas

Arkansas is currently 10-1, with their only loss to Alabama. From the NCAA FBS production model, the University of Arkansas is the #20 ranked team overall with the #17 ranked offense and the #41 ranked defense. Arkansas has played against a strength of schedule equal to 69.5 - again easier than the average strength of schedule.

Date		Opponent		PF		PA		SOS		Result
9/3/2011		Missouri St.		51		7		121		W
9/10/2011		New Mexico		52		3		119		W
9/17/2011		Troy		38		28		95		W
9/24/2011		Alabama		14		38		4		L
10/1/2011		Texas A&M		42		38		47		W
10/8/2011		Auburn		38		14		80		W
10/22/2011		Ole Miss		29		24		112		W
10/29/2011		Vanderbilt		31		28		39		W
11/5/2011		South Carolina		44		28		11		W
11/12/2011		Tennessee		49		7		73		W
11/19/2011		Mississippi St.		44		17		63		W
11/25/2011		LSU

Thus in terms of the production model, LSU is the better team on defense relative to Arkansas' defense and thus from the data and the model's weights, LSU is expected to win.

NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Week 10

Houston remains atop the NCAA FBS production rankings for the second straight week.

From last week both Alabama and LSU dropped, but Alabama still is more productive than LSU - so why would that be? Alabama and LSU both dropped because it was a very evenly matched performance. That means that neither Alabama or LSU significantly out-performed (on the field) each other, as Alabama and LSU have done in the previous games they played. Hence they dropped relative to the performance of Houston, Oregon and Wisconsin. Since LSU did not significantly out produce Alabama, Alabama is ranked higher than LSU.

Here are the current rankings along with their current BCS ranking and the previous rankings over the last few weeks after the top 25.

	2011 Weights		BCS
Rank		School
1		Houston	(11)
2		Oregon	(7)
3		Wisconsin	(18)
4		Alabama	(3)
5		Stanford	(4)
6		LSU	(1)
7		Oklahoma State	(2)
8		Oklahoma	(6)
9		Boise State	(5)
10		West Virginia	(-)
11		Florida State	(-)
12		Cincinnati	(23)
13		Georgia Tech	(21)
14		TCU	(-)
15		Arizona State	(-)
16		North Carolina	(-)
17		Mississippi State	(-)
18		South Carolina	(13)
19		Virginia Tech	(10)
20		Michigan	(24)
21		Utah State	(-)
22		Michigan State	(17)
23		Southern Mississippi	(22)
24		Georgia	(15)
25		Illinois	(-)

Week 9 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 8 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 7 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 6 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 5 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 4 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking
Week 3 NCAA FBS Top 25 Production Ranking

Alabama vs. LSU - 2011

This weekend the Alabama Crimson Tide (ranked #2 in the BCS standings) face the Louisiana State Tigers (ranked #1 in the BCS standings). So let's take a look through the lens of the NCAA FBS production model as to how these two teams have fared up to this point in the season. Here is the top 25 most productive teams as of last weekend.

First, let's take a look at the Crimson Tide. Alabama is currently 8-0, but the Crimson Tide has played a rather weak schedule from the perspective of the NCAA FBS model, with a strength of schedule of 76.3, which is higher than an average strength of schedule equal to 60.5. In terms of the NCAA FBS production model, Alabama is currently the #3 team in the nation in overall production, with the #25th most productive offense and the #1 ranked defense. Here is Alabama's 2011 regular season schedule and their opponents strength of schedule as of this past weekend.

Date		Opponent		PF		PA		SOS	Venue
9/3/2011		Kent St.		48		7		108	Home
9/10/2011		Penn St.		27		11		27	Away
9/17/2011		North Texas		41		0		110	Home
9/24/2011		Arkansas		38		14		40	Home
10/1/2011		Florida		38		10		71	Away
10/8/2011		Vanderbilt		34		0		53	Home
10/15/2011		Ole Miss		52		7		113	Away
10/22/2011		Tennessee		37		6		88	Home
11/5/2011		LSU							Home
11/12/2011		Mississippi St.							Away
11/19/2011		Ga. Southern							Home
11/26/2011		Auburn							Away

LSU is currently 8-0 against a strength of schedule of 62.5, which is much closer to an average strength of schedule. In terms of overall productivity, LSU is the #5 ranked team overall, with the #22 ranked offense and the #2 ranked defense. Here is LSU's regular season schedule as well.

Date		Opponent		PF		PA		SOS	Venue
9/3/2011		Oregon		40		27		2	Neutral Site
9/10/2011		Northwestern St.		49		3		121	Home
9/15/2011		Mississippi St.		19		6		25	Away
9/24/2011		West Virginia		47		21		10	Away
10/1/2011		Kentucky		35		7		111	Home
10/8/2011		Florida		41		11		71	Home
10/15/2011		Tennessee		38		7		88	Away
10/22/2011		Auburn		45		10		72	Home
11/5/2011		Alabama							Away
11/12/2011		Western Ky.							Home
11/19/2011		Ole Miss							Away
11/25/2011		Arkansas							Home

As NCAA FBS fans already know, this game is a toss up - pitting two superior defenses against two excellent offenses. I wish the model could give some insight as to who was going to win, but it does not.

Boise State's Head Coach Petersen Salary Increase

ESPN reports that Boise State's head football coach Chris Petersen has received a salary increase. Details are in the link. Boise State has had a great run in terms of productivity over the last few years, and this is a great reason (or excuse) to document how productive Boise State has been over the last few years.

The 2008 Boise State Broncos were 12-0 during the regular season but were unsuccessful against TCU in the Poinsettia bowl - losing by one point. Using the NCAA FBS production model the 2008 Boise State Broncos were the 6th best team in terms of overall production with the 15th best offense and the 8th best defense.

In 2009 the Broncos were 13-0 during the regular season and avenged their 2008 Poinsettia Bowl loss by defeating TCU 17-10 in the Fiesta Bowl. Boise State was the 2nd most productive team overall, with the 13th ranked offense and the 2nd ranked defense. All of this against a strength of schedule of 71.21, which is easier than an average schedule.

In 2010 Boise State finished the regular season 11-1 (only loss was an overtime loss to Nevada) and defeated Utah in the Maaco Las Vegas Bowl. The Broncos were the #1 most productive team in college football on both sides of the ball and thus were the #1 team in terms of production in the NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision. All of this was done against a strength of schedule of 69.69, which is an easier schedule than average.

This season, Boise State has taken a step backwards, which is natural given their superior performance last season. Boise State is currently 7-0, and ranked 5th in the BCS standings. Boise State is ranked 9th overall in the NCAA FBS model and 9th in offense and 23rd in defense against a strength of schedule of 55.1 (currently).

Given the large salaries given to NCAA FBS head coaches - in terms of just production - Peterson is well worth the money. Of course, those following who remember their Prin. of Microeconomics will note that production (or more specifically marginal productivity) is not the only feature that impacts an employees salary - the other is marginal revenue.

Who is the best NCAA FBS team in Florida?

At the end of the sixth week of the 2011 NCAA FBS season the University of Florida, Florida State University and Miami of Florida were all absent from the Associated Press Top 25 poll for the first time since December 6th 1982. (You might also notice that neither of those three teams were in any of the three top 25 production rankings). So that got me thinking - which NCAA FBS school in Florida is the most productive through the 6th week of the 2011 season?

For those who are reading this blog, you will notice that I have three different top 25 rankings. The reason is that the model I want to use (the one on the left in the link above which only takes into account the results from this season) still does not have enough variation in the data for it to be as accurate as I would like. As of the end of week 6 it has an explanatory power of over 85%, but the other two time periods are better - both over 90%. My hope is that as NCAA FBS teams are now playing primarily other NCAA FBS (and not FCS or Division II) schools that the model using only the 2011 data will become as accurate as the others, as it did last year. Since it currently is not, I have three top 25 ranks for now.

Even though the 2011 weights model has slightly lower explanatory power, I will use it for the rest of this post. So, using the data from only this season, here is how a variety of Florida based NCAA FBS schools are faring in terms of offensive productivity, defensive productivity and total productivity; ranked by total productivity.

The University of Central Florida is currently ranked as the 16th most productive NCAA FBS school, and the 77th most productive offense and 3rd most productive defense.

The University of South Florida is currently ranked as the 20th most productive NCAA FBS school, and the 29th most productive offense and 29th most productive defense.

Florida State University is currently ranked as the 26th most productive NCAA FBS school, and the 70th most productive offense and 7th most productive defense.

The University of Florida is currently ranked as the 32nd most productive NCAA FBS school, and the 51st most productive offense and 25th most productive defense.

Florida International University is currently ranked as the 41st most productive NCAA FBS school, and the 39th most productive offense and 44th most productive defense.

The University of Miami (Florida) is currently ranked as the 56th most productive NCAA FBS school, and the 40th most productive offense and 68th most productive defense.

Florida Atlantic University is currently ranked as the 99th most productive NCAA FBS school, and the 118th most productive offense and 38th most productive defense.

Arizona Under Mike Stoops

Head football coach Mike Stoops was fired by the University of Arizona.

Using my NCAA FBS production model, let's take a look at how Arizona has fared under head coach Stoops from 2008 to this season. (This is the time period in which I have the data from www.cfbstats.com to produce the NCAA FBS production model).

In 2008, Arizona won 7 regular season games (plus their bowl game against BYU), finished as the 19th ranked offense; and the 13th ranked defense and as the 12th overall ranked team in terms of production for that season.

In 2009, Arizona won 8 regular season games (and lost their bowl game against Nebraska), finished as the 56th ranked offense; and the 31st ranked defense and as the 42nd overall ranked team in terms of production for that season.

In 2010, Arizona won 8 regular season games (and lost to Oklahoma State in the Alamo Bowl), finished as the 31st ranked offense; and the 29th ranked defense and as the 27th overall ranked team in terms of production for that season.

This year Arizona is currently 1-5 overall (with their only win over Northern Arizona which is a non-FBS NCAA football team), and 0-4 in the Pac12. Arizona is currently the 44th ranked offense; and the 119th ranked defense (that's second to last) and as the 101st overall ranked team in terms of production.

Coupled with Arizona State who is currently ranked #18 in the AP poll and #20 in the USA Today coaches poll. Arizona State is 5-1 and 3-0 in the Pac12. Arizona State is currently the 14th ranked offense; and the 49th ranked defense and as the 25th overall ranked team in terms of production.

For this head coach Mike Stoops was terminated. Here is his contract if you are interested.

New Mexico Fires Head Football Coach

The USAToday reports that the University of New Mexico has fired their head football coach Mike Locksley. It was rumored during the end of the 2010 season that Locksley would be fired, but some feel that the $1.5 million buyout was holding up making a coaching change.

NCAA rules violation (academic fraud) by assistant coaches under the previous head coach limited the number of scholarships Locksley could offer in the 2009 and 2010 seasons. This has likely impacted the team's recent performance.

In 2008, New Mexico's head coach was Rocky Long, and the Lobos finished 4-8. In that season according to the NCAA FBS Production model, New Mexico ranked #82 in offensive production, #37 in defensive production and #66 in overall total production. In terms of strength of schedule, New Mexico had a 59.17, which is close to average. (An exactly average strength of schedule equals 60.5).

After the 2008 season, head coach Rocky Long left New Mexico, and the Lobos hired Mike Locksley for the 2009 season. New Mexico finished 1-11 that season, with their only win over Colorado State. In terms of production, New Mexico ranked #113 in offensive production, #109 in defensive production and #113 in overall total production. The Lobos strength of schedule was 61.17 which was slightly easier than the previous season.

Unfortunately New Mexico's productivity worsened on both sides of the ball in 2010 and hit rock bottom. New Mexico was the lowest ranked (#120) offense and defense, making them the lowest (worst) team in NCAA football bowl subdivision in 2010. Strength of schedule was 60.58, which again is very similar to the previous two seasons, and almost exactly average.

This season (up to 9/25/11) when Locksley was terminated, the New Mexico Lobos were 0-4. Notice they were competitive with Colordo State (at the time the #104 ranked team and with Sam Houston State - a non-FBS school - which I use the default rank of 121). The loss to a non-FBS school, seems to be the last straw at UNM. In terms of production, through Sept. 25th, the Lobos were the #116th ranked offense, the #119th ranked defense, resulting in the worst overall productive team at #120 in the model. New Mexico's Strength of Schedule was equal to 71, meaning that their overall schedule was easier than many of the other schools in the football bowl subdivision.

Date		Opponent		PF		PA		SOS		Venue
9/3/2011		Colorado St.		10		14		104		Home
9/10/2011		Arkansas		3		52		29		Away
9/17/2011		Texas Tech		13		59		30		Home
9/24/2011		Sam Houston St.		45		48		121		Home
10/1/2011		New Mexico St.								Home
10/15/2011		Nevada								Away
10/22/2011		TCU								Away
10/29/2011		Air Force								Home
11/5/2011		San Diego St.								Away
11/12/2011		UNLV								Home
11/19/2011		Wyoming								Away
12/3/2011		Boise St.								Away

NCAA FBS Top 25 Production - Week 4

With week four completed, here is the top 25 (in terms of production) using weights from three different time periods. Special thanks to cfbstats.com for the data. The first is using the estimated weights just from this season (2011) , the second is using the estimated weights from all of the 2010 season, and the third is using the estimated weights over the 2008-2010 seasons. As you can see the model is starting to converge in terms of the teams. While the 2011 model is still pre-liminary, it is getting better as there is more variation in the data with each additional week. My expectation is that by the time the BCS starts ranking the top 25 NCAA FBS teams, that I will only be using the weights from the 2011 production data. Here are the top 25 production results.

	2011 Weights			2010 Weights			2008-2010 Weights
Rank		School			School			School
1		Wisconsin		1	Wisconsin		1	Wisconsin
2		Georgia Tech		2	South Florida		2	South Florida
3		South Florida		3	Florida		3	Florida
4		Alabama		4	Illinois		4	Virginia Tech
5		Florida		5	Stanford		5	Georgia Tech
6		Houston		6	Texas		6	Oregon
7		Illinois		7	Alabama		7	Houston
8		Michigan State		8	Virginia Tech		8	Illinois
9		Virginia Tech		9	LSU		9	Michigan State
10		Baylor		10	Georgia Tech		10	Arizona State
11		Cincinnati		11	UCF		11	Texas
12		UCF		12	Michigan State		12	Cincinnati
13		Oklahoma State		13	Cincinnati		13	Alabama
14		Ohio		14	Penn State		14	North Carolina
15		Bowling Green		15	Baylor		15	Stanford
16		Florida State		16	Texas Tech		16	West Virginia
17		Temple		17	Houston		17	Baylor
18		SMU		18	Oklahoma State		18	Penn State
19		LSU		19	Temple		19	LSU
20		Georgia		20	Utah		20	Michigan
21		Missouri		21	Arizona State		21	Texas Tech
22		Texas		22	Florida State		22	UCF
23		West Virginia		23	Michigan		23	SMU
24		Nebraska		24	Ohio		24	California
25		Michigan		25	Oregon		25	Oklahoma State

Week 3 Top 25 NCAA FBS Production Ranking