NCAA FBS Top 25 Production - Week 4

With week four completed, here is the top 25 (in terms of production) using weights from three different time periods. Special thanks to cfbstats.com for the data. The first is using the estimated weights just from this season (2011) , the second is using the estimated weights from all of the 2010 season, and the third is using the estimated weights over the 2008-2010 seasons. As you can see the model is starting to converge in terms of the teams. While the 2011 model is still pre-liminary, it is getting better as there is more variation in the data with each additional week. My expectation is that by the time the BCS starts ranking the top 25 NCAA FBS teams, that I will only be using the weights from the 2011 production data. Here are the top 25 production results.

	2011 Weights			2010 Weights			2008-2010 Weights
Rank		School			School			School
1		Wisconsin		1	Wisconsin		1	Wisconsin
2		Georgia Tech		2	South Florida		2	South Florida
3		South Florida		3	Florida		3	Florida
4		Alabama		4	Illinois		4	Virginia Tech
5		Florida		5	Stanford		5	Georgia Tech
6		Houston		6	Texas		6	Oregon
7		Illinois		7	Alabama		7	Houston
8		Michigan State		8	Virginia Tech		8	Illinois
9		Virginia Tech		9	LSU		9	Michigan State
10		Baylor		10	Georgia Tech		10	Arizona State
11		Cincinnati		11	UCF		11	Texas
12		UCF		12	Michigan State		12	Cincinnati
13		Oklahoma State		13	Cincinnati		13	Alabama
14		Ohio		14	Penn State		14	North Carolina
15		Bowling Green		15	Baylor		15	Stanford
16		Florida State		16	Texas Tech		16	West Virginia
17		Temple		17	Houston		17	Baylor
18		SMU		18	Oklahoma State		18	Penn State
19		LSU		19	Temple		19	LSU
20		Georgia		20	Utah		20	Michigan
21		Missouri		21	Arizona State		21	Texas Tech
22		Texas		22	Florida State		22	UCF
23		West Virginia		23	Michigan		23	SMU
24		Nebraska		24	Ohio		24	California
25		Michigan		25	Oregon		25	Oklahoma State

Week 3 Top 25 NCAA FBS Production Ranking