Wednesday, January 18, 2017

2016 NCAA FBS Competitive Balance

Now that the NCAA FBS season is over, let's take a look at how competitive the "league" was this year. For the 2016 season the Noll-Scully Competitive Balance measure was 1.414 for all games played.  For those that are interested in calculating this on their own, here is a step-by-step guide as to how to perform the Noll-Scully competitive balance calculation.  Below is the Noll-Scully for FBS football since 2002.



As you can see from the chart above, that competitive balance among NCAA FBS teams has not changed much from one year to the next.  In fact the average Noll-Scully is 1.518 for this time period.  Of those listed only the 2005, 2014 and this past (2016) NCAA FBS seasons were more competitive than the average (i.e. had a Noll-Scully that was less than one standard deviation below the mean) and the 2003 and 2013 NCAA FBS seasons were less competitive than the average (i.e. had a Noll-Scully that was greater than one standard deviation above the mean).

Monday, January 16, 2017

California Fires Head Football Coach Sonny Dykes

Earlier this month California or UC Berkely has fired head football coach Sonny Dykes.  So let's take a look at the productivity of the Golden Bears under head coach Dykes.

Below is a chart of offense, defense and total production of the California Golden Bears football program during Dykes' tenure as head football coach, along with who would be the lowest ranked team during this time period (in purple) and the average team (sky blue).   As you may notice, California has been trending downward over the last few years under his tenure. All rankings in this blog come from my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  More details about the program under Dykes are after the chart below, including his original contract (and recent contract amendment) are linked below.




Sonny Dykes (2013 - 2016) [2016 contract amendment]

2013
At the end of the regular season the Golden Bears were 1-11 and bowl ineligible, while playing against an "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that their strength of schedule was between one to two standard deviations lower than the "league's" average SOS.  The Golden Bears only win was over FCS Portland State (37-30) and their worst loss was to #104 ranked Colorado by a score of (24-41).  California had the #119 ranked team in total production with the #98 ranked offense and the #124 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2014 
The Golden Bears again finished the regular season at 5-7 and were again bowl ineligible.  California played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Golden Bears best regular season game was a victory (31-24) over #81 Northwestern and their worst loss was to #51 ranked Washington by a score of (7-31).  Overall, the Golden Bears had the #84 ranked team with the #38 ranked offense and the #115 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015 

California finished the regular season overall at 7-5 (bowl eligible) and defeated by #37 ranked Air Force in their post-season bowl game by a score of (55-36) to finish the season at 8-5.  California played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Golden Bears best game again was their victory over #4 ranked San Diego State (35-7) and their worst loss was to #54 ranked Oregon (28-44).  California had the #41 ranked team in total production with the #9 ranked offense and the #102 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2016 

At the end of the regular season the Golden Bears were 5-7 (and were bowl ineligible) playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, which means that their current strength of schedule was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "league's" average SOS.  The Golden Bears best win was over #43 ranked Utah (28-23) and their worst loss was to #116 ranked Arizona State by a score of (41-51).  California had the #98 ranked team in total production with the #39 ranked offense and the #122 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.
 
2016 NCAA Head Football Head Coaching Changes 
Texas and Charlie Strong
Georgia State and Trent Miles
Fresno State and Tim DeRuyter
Purdue and Darrell Hazell
LSU and Les Miles
Florida International University and Ron Turner
Baylor and Art Briles

Wednesday, January 11, 2017

2016 NCAA FBS Top 25 Final Ranking

Below is the list of the Top 25 teams using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided at www.cfbstats.com.  According to the Complex Invasion College Football production model The University of Alabama Crimson Tide finished as the number one team in terms of the most productive team in the FBS, even though they were not the winner of the national championship game.  Links to the previous weeks rankings at the bottom.

Rank Team
1 Alabama
2 Washington
3 Ohio State
4 Michigan
5 Clemson
6 San Diego State
7 LSU
8 Western Michigan
9 Temple
10 Western Kentucky
11 Louisville
12 Penn State
13 Miami (Florida)
14 Auburn
15 Oklahoma
16 Colorado
17 Appalachian State
18 Wisconsin
19 Toledo
20 Army
21 South Florida
22 Old Dominion
23 Louisiana Tech
24 Florida State
25 Boise State

Previous 2016 Top 25 Rankings
2016 Top 25 for Week #15
2016 Top 25 for Week #14
2016 Top 25 for Week #13
2016 Top 25 for Week #12
2016 Top 25 for Week #11
2016 Top 25 for Week #10
2016 Top 25 for Week #9
2016 Top 25 for Week #8
2016 Top 25 for Week #7
2016 Top 25 for Week #6
2016 Top 25 for Week #5
2016 Top 25 for Week #4
2016 Top 25 for Week #3
2016 Top 25 for Week #2