Monday, May 30, 2016

Baylor Fires Art Briles

Last week Baylor University fired head football coach Art Briles as a result of a report regarding the universities handling of sexual misconduct by football players against other Baylor students.  The incidence report from a third party law firm details problems under former head coach Briles' tenure at Baylor.  While the reasons for firing Briles are shocking and unconscionably, I do still want to look at the football program under Briles tenure as head football coach.

Below is a chart of offense, defense and total production of the Baylor Bears football program during Briles' tenure as head football coach, along with who would be the lowest ranked team during this time period (in purple) and the average team (sky blue).   As you may notice, Baylor's offense has been excellent over the last few years under Briles' tenure. All rankings in this blog come from my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  More details about the program under Briles are after the chart below.


Art Briles (2008 - 2015)

2008
At the end of the Briles first season as head football coach, the Bears were 4-8 (bowl ineligible) while playing against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that their strength of schedule was between one to two standard deviations lower than the "league's" average SOS.  The Bears best win was over #104 ranked Iowa State (38-10) and their worst loss was to #40 ranked Nebraska by a score of (20-32).  Baylor had the #50 ranked team in total production with the #46 ranked offense and the #53 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2009
The Bears again finished the regular season at 4-8 and were bowl ineligible.  Baylor again played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Bears best regular season game was a victory (40-32) over #47 Missouri and their worst loss was to #83 ranked Iowa State (10-24).  Overall, the Bears had the #103 ranked team with the #105 ranked offense and the #69 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2010

Baylor finished the regular season overall at 7-5 (bowl eligible) and were defeated by #18 ranked Illinois in their post-season bowl game by a score of (14-38) to finish the season at 7-6.  Baylor played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, which means that their current strength of schedule was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "league's" average SOS.  The Bears best game again was their victory over #70 ranked Texas (30-22) and their worst loss was to #64 ranked Texas Tech (38-45).  Baylor had the #51 ranked team in total production with the #27 ranked offense and the #95 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2011

At the end of the regular season the Bears were 9-3 (bowl eligible) and defeated #70 Washington in a shoot-out in the Alamo Bowl (67-56) to finish 10-3 overall, playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Bears best win was over #9 ranked TCU (50-48) and their worst loss was to #61 ranked Kansas State by a score of (35-36).  Baylor had the #26 ranked team in total production with the #3 ranked offense and the #101 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2012
At the end of the regular season the Bears were 7-5 (bowl eligible) winning their post-season bowl game over #36 ranked UCLA by a score of (49-26) to finish 8-5 overall, while playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.   The Bears best win was over #17 ranked Kansas State (52-24) and their worst loss was to #72 ranked Iowa State by a score of (21-35).  Baylor had the #49 ranked team in total production with the #3 ranked offense and the #123 ranked defense (2nd from last in all of the FBS) from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2013
At the end of the regular season the Bears were 11-1 (bowl eligible) losing their post-season bowl game to #20 ranked University of Central Florida by a score of (42-53) to finish 11-2 overall, while playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Bears best win was again over #28 ranked Kansas State (35-25) and their only regular season loss was to #15 ranked Oklahoma State by a score of (17-49).  Baylor had the #4 ranked team in total production with the #2 ranked offense and the #24 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2014 
The Bears again finished the regular season at 11-1 and were bowl eligible and again lost their post-season bowl game, this time to #3 ranked Michigan State by a score of (41-42).  Baylor played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Bears best regular season game was a victory (61-58) over #1 ranked TCU and their only regular season loss was to #67 ranked West Virginia (27-41).  Overall, the Bears had the #6 ranked team with the #5 ranked offense and the #48 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015 

Baylor finished the regular season overall at 9-3 (bowl eligible) and defeated by #29 ranked North Carolina in their post-season bowl game by a score of (49-38) to finish the season at 10-3.  Baylor played against an "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that their strength of schedule was one standard deviation higher than the "league's" average SOS.  The Bears best game again was their victory over #33 ranked West Virginia (62-38) and their worst loss was to #83 ranked Texas (17-23).  Baylor had the #15 ranked team in total production with the #2 ranked offense and the #79 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.