Wednesday, January 27, 2016

Gary Pinkel Resigns as Head Football Coach

Gary Pinkel is resigning as head football coach from the University of Missouri due to health related concerns.  Coach Pinkel has been at the helm of the Missouri Tigers football program since 2001.  The model that I use goes back to the 2008 season, so I will only look at the last eight seasons of Pinkel's tenure.

Below is a chart of offense, defense and total production of the Missouri Tigers football program during Pinkel's tenure as head football coach since the 2008 season, along with who would be the lowest ranked team during this time period (in purple) and the average team (sky blue).   As you may notice, Missouri has been up and down during the last few years under Pinkel's tenure. All rankings in this blog come from my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  More details about the program under Pinkel are after the chart below, including contract information.


Gary Pinkel [2001-2015]

2008
At the end of the regular season the Tigers were 9-4 and bowl eligible in which Missouri defeated #54 ranked Northwestern (30-23) to finish the season at 10-4.  Missouri  played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that their strength of schedule was plus or minus one standard deviation to the "league's" average SOS.  The Tigers best win was over #32 ranked Nevada by a score of (69-17) and their worst loss was to #42 ranked Kansas by a score of (37-40).  Missouri had the #16 ranked team in total production with the #4 ranked offense and the #95 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.


2009
At the end of the regular season the Tigers were 8-4 and bowl eligible, but lost to #32 ranked Navy (13-35) to finish 8-5 overall. The Tigers again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Tigers best regular season victory was over #30 ranked Nevada (31-21) and their worst loss was to #100 ranked Baylor by a score of (32-40).  Missouri had the #47 ranked team in total production with the #43 ranked offense and the #54 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.
2010 The Tigers again finished the regular season at 10-2 and were again bowl eligible where they were defeated by #17 Iowa by a score of (24-27).  Missouri again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Tigers best regular season game was a victory (36-27) over #12 Oklahoma and their worst loss was to #64 ranked Texas Tech by a score of (17-24).  Overall, the Tigers had the #14 ranked team with the #30 ranked offense and the #8 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2011
Missouri finished the regular season overall at 7-5 (bowl eligible) and defeated by #36 ranked North Carolina in their post-season bowl game by a score of (41-24) to finish the season at 8-5.  Missouri played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Tigers best game again was their victory over #33 ranked Texas A&M (38-31) and their worst loss was to #62 ranked Arizona State (30-37).  Missouri had the #31 ranked team in total production with the #17 ranked offense and the #58 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2012 Missouri moved from the Big 12 conference to the SEC conference during this season and the Tigers had a rough start in the new conference.  At the end of the regular season the Tigers were 5-7 and were bowl ineligible, while playing against a "much tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Missouri's SOS was more than two standard deviations below the "leagues" average SOS.  The Tigers best win was over #19 ranked UCF (21-16) and their worst loss was to #38 ranked Vanderbilt by a score of (15-19).  Missouri had the #93 ranked team in total production with the #95 ranked offense and the #63 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model

2013
At the end of the regular season the Tigers were 11-2 (and were bowl eligible) and defeated #15 Oklahoma State (41-31) to finish 12-2 overall.  Missouri played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Tigers best regular season victory was against #32 Texas A&M (28-21) and their worst loss was to #30 ranked Auburn by a score of (42-59).  Missouri had the #13 ranked team in total production with the #9 ranked offense and the #65 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2014 The Tigers again finished the regular season at 10-3 and were again bowl eligible, and defeated #45 ranked Minnesota by a score of (33-17).  Missouri played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Tigers best regular season game was a victory (21-14) over #22 Arkansas and their worst loss was to #94 ranked Indiana by a score of (27-31).  Overall, the Tigers had the #27 ranked team with the #46 ranked offense and the #26 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015
Missouri finished the regular season overall at 5-7 and bowl eligible while playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Tigers best game again was their victory over #42 ranked BYU (20-16) and their worst loss was to #89 ranked Vanderbilt (3-10).  Missouri was a contrast in opposites this season, with the #65 ranked team in total production with the #125 ranked offense and the #2 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

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