Rutgers Fires their Head Football Coach

Rutgers fired their head football coach, Chris Ash, yesterday, after a 0-52 loss to the University of Michigan.  Ash was 1-3 in 2019.  Here is a look at the Rutgers Scarlet Knights since 2008; under three different head coaches - Schiano (partial), Flood and Ash.  As you will notice, Rutgers has had some remarkably productive seasons, and some not so remarkably productive seasons - especially under Ash.

Below is the Rutgers Scarlet Knights production rank (total, offense, defense, and the average and worst) since 2008 using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com, as well as lines for head coaching firing/leaving.  More details about the program under Ash (including a link to his contract) is provided below.

Chris Ash [2016 - 2019*]

2016
Rutgers finished the regular season again at (2-10).  Rutgers played against a “much tougher” strength of schedule, meaning that the Scarlet Knights strength of schedule was more than two standard deviation below the of the "league" average strength of schedule.  Rutgers best regular season victory against #33 ranked New Mexico by a score of (37-28) and their worst loss was to #99 ranked Illinois (7-24).  The Scarlet Knights finished the season as the #126 ranked team overall, with the #128 ranked offense and the #97 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2017
Rutgers finish the reason at (4-8) while playing against an “average” strength of schedule, meaning that Rutgers strength of schedule was plus or minus one standard deviations of the "league's" average strength of schedule.  Rutgers best game was their victory against #41 ranked Purdue by a score of (14-12) and their worst loss was to currently ranked #118 Nebraska by a score of (17-27).  The Scarlet Knights end of regular season production rankings are:  #116 team overall, with the #126 offense and the #74 defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2018
The Scarlet Knights finished the regular season again at (1-11).  Rutgers played against a “tougher” strength of schedule, meaning that the Scarlet Knights strength of schedule was between one and two standard deviations lower than the "league" average strength of schedule.  Rutgers only regular season victory against #75 ranked Texas State by a score of (35-7) and their worst loss was to #121 ranked Illinois (17-38).  Rutgers finished the season as the #125 ranked team overall, with the #129 ranked offense and the #93 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2019*
After four regular season games, Rutgers fired head football coach Chris Ash, which at the time was (1-3), while playing against a “tougher” strength of schedule.  During the first four games of the season Rutgers only victory was against currently ranked #127 Massachusetts by a score of (48-21) and their worst loss was to currently ranked #73 Boston College by a score of (16-30).  Rutgers current production rankings are:  #122 team overall, with the #126 offense and the #91 defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 5

Using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model most productive team in all of the NCAA FBS is the Ohio State University Buckeyes.

If you are interested, here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Rank	Team
1	Ohio State
2	Alabama
3	Georgia
4	Penn State
5	Wisconsin
6	Oregon
7	Clemson
8	Oklahoma
9	Baylor
10	Louisiana-Lafayette
11	Florida
12	Utah
13	TCU
14	Missouri
15	Kansas State
16	LSU
17	Memphis
18	Washington
19	Michigan State
20	Washington State
21	Utah State
22	Notre Dame
23	UCF
24	Boise State
25	Navy

Previous 2019 Top 25 Rankings
2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #2
2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #3
2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #4

2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 4

Using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model has a new number one FBS team this week.  Vaulting into the number one spot for this week is the Ohio State University Buckeyes.

If you are interested, here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Rank	Team
1	Ohio State
2	Alabama
3	Georgia
4	Wisconsin
5	Oregon
6	Washington State
7	LSU
8	Penn State
9	Clemson
10	Maryland
11	Washington
12	Oklahoma
13	Missouri
14	Coastal Carolina
15	Kansas State
16	UCF
17	Michigan State
18	Navy
19	Iowa State
20	Utah
21	Florida
22	Baylor
23	Wake Forest
24	Troy
25	Texas Tech

Previous 2019 Top 25 Rankings
2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #2
2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #3

Power 5 Team Performance After Conference Change

Brett McMurphy has a nice article on the twelve "Power 5" NCAA FBS teams that have changed athletic conference since 2011.  McMurphy uses winning percent and conference titles as his measure of team performance, which is very reasonable.  I looked at those teams using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model for the FBS from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

Let's take a look at each season starting with the 2011 season.  In 2011, Nebraska left the Big 12 to play in the Big 10; Colorado left the Big 12 for the Pac 10; and Utah left the Mountain West for the Pac 10.  Here is Nebraska, Colorado and Utah's total production.  As you can see, Utah has been recently the best of the three; and has the best average production rank since 2011.

Looking at the 2012 season, Missouri and Texas A&M moved from the Big 12 Conference to the SEC; and TCU moved from the Mountain West and West Virginia moved from the Big East to the Big 12 Conference.  All four teams have been on average above average in their total production rank, with TCU as the most productive of the group; and Missouri and Texas A&M being almost identical in their average production rank.

For the 2013 seasons both Pitt and Syracuse left the Big East and moved to the ACC.   Pitt is basically an average program over this time period, and Syracuse was substantially below average (even with their highly productive 2018 season).

For the 2014 season, Louisville moved from the American Athletic Conference to the Atlantic Coast Conference; Rutgers left the American Athletic Conference to the Big 10 Conference and Maryland left the Atlantic Coast Conference for the Big 10 Conference.  We see that Louisville (even with the 2018 season) was the best of these three teams in terms of overall production; while Rutgers was one of the worst teams overall.

Finally, here is all 12 teams on one graph.

Finally, what I am interested in is how does it effect the athletic department financially moving from one conference to another conference?  Sounds like something I should add to my list of research projects.

2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 3

There is a new number one FBS team given the lack luster performance of the Maryland Terrapins against the Temple Owls.  Vaulting into the number one spot is the University of Oklahoma Sooners at the end of week 3 using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model for the FBS from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com; using the aggregate data for each team in the model.  If you are interested, here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Rank	Team
1	Oklahoma
2	Georgia
3	Wisconsin
4	UCF
5	Alabama
6	Washington State
7	LSU
8	Ohio State
9	Baylor
10	Clemson
11	Oregon
12	Navy
13	Penn State
14	Utah
15	Air Force
16	Maryland
17	Kansas State
18	Oklahoma State
19	Temple
20	Louisiana-Lafayette
21	Memphis
22	Notre Dame
23	Texas Tech
24	Utah State
25	Missouri

Previous 2019 Top 25 Rankings
2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #2

When your Enemy is Making Mistakes, Don't Interrupt Them

Is Running a High Number of Plays Good?  Opportunity Cost in College Football

The Wall Street Journal published an article yesterday that argued that the reason Syracuse beat Clemson in 2017 was because Syracuse ran a lot of plays during the game.   [Paywall]

No mention of Clemson losing their starting quarterback Kelly Bryant just before the end of the first half was mentioned, because according to the article, the reason Syracuse defeated one of the best teams in all of FBS was because they ran a lot of plays.  Yes, Syracuse ran a lot of plays, 89 in the 2017 game against Clemson.

As you might have guessed, I disagree; because running a play is actually a cost (in economic terms we call it an opportunity cost), because if the team does not do enough positive things to overcome using the scarce resource (play); this reduces a teams ability to score.  Just like "outs" are an opportunity cost in baseball (think Moneyball "when your enemy is making mistakes, don't interrupt them"), or shot attempts in basketball.

Plays in football are an opportunity cost.  We see this in pro football in research done by David Berri, as well as referred to in our book, The Wages of Wins.  Running a play has a statistically significant negative impact on the ability of NFL teams to score points.  Likewise, the same is true in the FBS.  For the 2017 season, I estimate that each play results in (-0.444) points scored.  Likewise the more plays your opponent runs results in your opponent reducing their ability to score points by an estimated (-0.359) points scored.

To overcome this opportunity cost, offenses need to do things that are positive on the field to increase their ability to score points (gain yards, make first downs, and most importantly - not turn the ball over) and defenses need to do things that stop their opponent from doing things that increase their ability to score points.

So, let's go back to Syracuse.  Syracuse defeated what ended up being the #10 ranked team overall using my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model for the Football Bowl Subdivision.  So was it more likely due to Syracuse playing a lot of plays or that Clemson's starting quarterback was missing for half the game?  If running lots of plays, then Syracuse should also be successful against other teams as well; but Syracuse finished up at 4 wins and 8 losses.  In terms of the my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model for the Football Bowl Subdivision Syracuse finished as the #104 ranked team in total productivity, with the #87 ranked team in offensive production and the #109 ranked team in defensive production.  That Syracuse team was below average on both sides of the ball, and as such, running plays doesn't seem to be the deciding factor.

2019 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 2

Each year I estimate a Complex Invasion College Football Production Model for the FBS from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com in order to find a Top 25 rank for each week (except week 0 or week 1).  So here is the first for the 2019 season.  Given it is very early, the rankings will have a number of substantial changes.  But as of the end of week 2, this is the Top 25 most productive teams.

According to the Complex Invasion College Football production model, the University of Maryland Terrapins are the most productive team in all of the Football Bowl Subdivision at the end of week 2 using all aggregate data for each team that is used in the model.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Rank	Team
1	Maryland
2	Washington State
3	UCF
4	Oklahoma
5	Alabama
6	Wisconsin
7	Kansas State
8	Penn State
9	North Carolina State
10	Baylor
11	Georgia
12	Temple
13	Air Force
14	Oklahoma State
15	LSU
16	Utah State
17	Texas Tech
18	Arizona
19	Ohio State
20	Navy
21	Oregon
22	Arizona State
23	Indiana
24	Troy
25	Clemson

2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for the Season
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for the Season
2016 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for the Season
2015 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for the Season
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for the Season
2013 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for the Season
2012 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for the Season
2011 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for the Season
2010 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for the Season