Tuesday, December 22, 2020

Auburn Fires Head Football Coach Gus Malzahn

Auburn fired head football coach Gus Malzahn at the beginning of last week.  Head football coach Malzahn was at the helm of the Auburn Tigers football program since 2013.  So here is a look at the Auburn University Tigers football program since 2008 (the first year that I collected all the variables needed for the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model).  This time period spans head coach Tommy Tuberville last season with the Tigers (2008), Gene Chizik (2009-2012), and the eight seasons under Gus Malzahn (2013-2020).

After the figure below is a more detailed look at the Auburn Tigers football program during head coach Malzahn's tenure based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.  (The vertical school color bars represent seasons where head coaches changed).

Gus Malzahn [2013-2020*] {original contract} {third amended contract}

2013 [SEC Champion]
Auburn finished the regular season at 11-1, and won the SEC championship game over #13 ranked Missouri by a score of (59-42).  The Tigers then won their bowl game over #1 ranked Florida State (31-24) to finish 13-1 overall. The Tiger played against a “tougher” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that Auburn's SOS was between one and two standard deviations lower than the "league's" average SOS.  Auburn's best regular season victory was against in state rival #7 ranked Alabama by a score of (34-28) and their ONLY loss was to #11 ranked LSU by a score of (21-35).  Auburn was the #30 ranked team overall, with the #10 ranked offense and the #93 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2014
Auburn finished the regular season at 8-4, and were again bowl eligible, but were defeated by #10 ranked Wisconsin (31-34) to finish 8-5 overall.  The Tigers played against a “much tougher” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that Illinois's SOS was more than standard deviations lower than the "league's" average SOS.  Auburn's best regular season victory was against #9 ranked Louisiana Tech (45-17) and their worst loss was to #65 ranked Texas A&M 38-41).  Auburn was the #28 ranked team overall, with the #20 ranked offense, and the #72 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2015
Auburn finished the regular season at 6-6, and were again bowl eligible, where they defeated #46 ranked Memphis (31-10) to finish the season at 7-6. The Tigers played against a “tougher” strength of schedule (SOS).  Auburn's best regular season victory was again against #39 ranked Louisville by a score of (31-24) and their worst loss was to #32 ranked Mississippi State by a score of (9-17).  Auburn was the #57 ranked team overall, with the #76 ranked offense and the #40 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2016
Auburn finished the regular season at 8-4, and were defeated by #15 ranked Oklahoma (19-35) to finish 8-5 overall. The Tigers played against a “tougher” strength of schedule (SOS).  Auburn's best regular season victory was again against #29 ranked Arkansas State by a score of (34-20) and their worst loss was to #47 ranked Texas A&M by a score of (16-29). Auburn was the #14 ranked team overall, with the #38 ranked offense and the #7 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2017 [SEC Runner-Up]
Auburn finished the regular season at 10-2, and played in the SEC Championship game against #8 ranked Georgia, losing (7-28).  The Tigers were then defeated by #6 ranked UCF (27-34) to finish 10-4 overall.  The Tigers played against a “tougher” strength of schedule (SOS).  Auburn's best regular season victory was against #1 ranked Alabama (26-14) and their worst loss was to #17 ranked LSU (23-27).  Auburn was the #13 ranked team overall, with the #21 ranked offense, and the #17 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2018
Auburn finished the regular season at 7-5, and were again bowl eligible, where they defeated #88 ranked Purdue (63-14) to finish 8-5 overall. The Tigers played against a “tougher” strength of schedule (SOS).  Auburn's best regular season victory was again against #81 ranked Minnesota by a score of (55-31) and their worst loss was to #12 ranked Washington by a score of (21-16).  Auburn was the #29 ranked team overall, with the #52 ranked offense and the #22 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2019 
Auburn finished the regular season at 9-3, and were bowl eligible, where they were defeated by #20 ranked Minnesota by a score of (24-31) to finish 9-4 overall.  The Tigers played against a “much tougher” strength of schedule (SOS).  Auburn' best regular season victory was against #3 ranked Alabama (48-45) and their worst loss was to #14 ranked Florida (13-24).  Auburn was the #22 ranked team overall, with the #30 ranked offense and the #19 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2020
Auburn is currently 6-4 with their best win was over currently #65 ranked Arkansas and their worst loss of the season was to currently ranked #116 South Carolina.  The Tigers are currently the #40 ranked offense, the #88 ranked defense and the #57 ranked team in the Football Bowl Subdivision.

2020 NCAA FBS Head Coaching Changes 

Sunday, December 20, 2020

2020 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 16

Since not all the teams in the FBS are playing, I have also had to make some changes with the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model in terms of the use of conference fixed effects - specifically deleting all of them.  As such, the comparability of this week's models numbers with past years is no longer as accurate.

Using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model most productive team in all of the NCAA FBS is for the second straight week:   the Alabama Crimson Tide.

Rank Team
1 Alabama
2 BYU
3 Clemson
4 Coastal Carolina
5 Cincinnati
6 North Carolina
7 Oklahoma
8 Liberty
9 Notre Dame
10 Florida
11 Iowa State
12 Marshall
13 Appalachian State
14 UCF
15 Louisiana-Lafayette
16 Texas A&M
17 Texas
18 Buffalo
19 Ohio State
20 SMU
21 Tulane
22 UAB
23 San Jose State
24 Miami (Florida)
25 Army

 

2020 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings

Thursday, December 17, 2020

Illinois Fires Head Football Coach Lovie Smith

Illinois fired head football coach Lovie Smith at the beginning of this week.  Head football coach Smith was at the helm of the Illini football program since 2016.  So here is a look at the University of Illinois football program since 2008 (the first year that I collected all the variables needed for the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model).  This time period spans head coach Ron Zook last four seasons with the Illini (2008-2011), Tim Beckman (2012 - 2014), Bill Cubit (2015), and the five seasons under Lovie Smith (2016-2020).

After the figure below is a more detailed look at the Illinois Illini football program during head coach Smith's tenure based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.  (The vertical school color bars represent seasons where head coaches changed).

Lovie Smith [2016-2020]

2016
Illinois finished the regular season at 3-9, and were bowl ineligible. The Illini played against a “tougher” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that Illinois's SOS was between one and two standard deviations lower than the "league's" average SOS.  Illinois' best regular season victory was again against #72 ranked Michigan State by a score of (31-27) and their worst loss was to #122 ranked Purdue by a score of (31-34).  Illinois was the #99 ranked team overall, with the #112 ranked offense and the #65 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2017
Illinois finished the regular season at 2-10, and were again bowl ineligible.  The Illini played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that Illinois's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "league's" average SOS.  Illinois' best regular season victory was against #80 ranked Western Kentucky (20-7) and their worst loss was to #118 ranked Nebraska (6-28).  Illinois was the #125 ranked team overall, with the #129 ranked offense (i.e. 2nd to last) and the #94 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2018
Illinois finished the regular season at 4-8, and were again bowl ineligible. The Illini played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  Illinois' best regular season victory was again against #81 ranked Minnesota by a score of (55-31) and their worst loss was to #88 ranked Purdue by a score of (7-46).  Illinois was the #121 ranked team overall, with the #87 ranked offense and the #127 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2019 
Illinois finished the regular season at 6-6, and were now bowl eligible, where they were defeated by #68 California by a score of (20-35) to finish 6-7 overall.  The Illini played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  Illinois' best regular season victory was against #12 ranked Wisconsin (24-23) and their worst loss was to in state rival #99 ranked Northwestern (10-29).  Illinois was the #74 ranked team overall, with the #91 ranked offense and the #50 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2020
Illinois is currently 2-4 with their best win was over currently #94 ranked Rutgers and their worst loss of the season was to currently ranked #80 Minnesota.  The Illini are currently the #92 ranked offense, the #69 ranked defense and the #98 ranked team in the Football Bowl Subdivision.

2020 NCAA FBS Head Coaching Changes 

Monday, December 14, 2020

Arizona Fires Head Football Coach Kevin Sumlin

Late last week Arizona fired head football coach Kevin Sumlin.  The Arizona Wildcats have lost twelve games in a row (going back to the 2019 season).  Here is a look at the University of Arizona football program since 2008 (the first year that I collected all the variables needed for the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model).  This time period spans head coach Mike Stoops last four seasons with the Wildcats (2008-2011), Rich Rodriguez (2012 - 2017), and the three seasons under Kevin Sumlin (2018-2020).

After the figure below is a more detailed look at the Arizona Wildcats football program during head coach Sumlin's tenure based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.  (The vertical school color bars represent seasons where head coaches changed).

Kevin Sumlin [2018-2020*]

2018
Arizona finished the regular season at 5-7, and were bowl ineligible. The Wildcats' played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that Arizona's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "league's" average SOS.  Arizona's best regular season victory was again against #35 ranked Oregon by a score of (44-15) and their worst loss was to #103 ranked UCLA by a score of (30-31).  Arizona was the #80 ranked team overall, with the #73 ranked offense and the #88 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2019 
Arizona finished the regular season at 4-8, and were again bowl ineligible.  The Wildcats played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  Arizona's best regular season victory was against #83 ranked Texas Tech (28-14) and their worst loss was to #112 ranked Stanford (31-41).  Arizona was the #90 ranked team overall, with the #64 ranked offense and the #111 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2020
Arizona is currently 0-5 with their worst loss of the season was to currently ranked #63 Washington by the score of (27-44).  The Wildcats' are currently the #121 ranked offense, the #62 ranked defense and the #121 ranked team in the Football Bowl Subdivision.

2020 NCAA FBS Head Coaching Changes 

2020 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 15

Since not all the teams in the FBS are playing, I have also had to make some changes with the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model in terms of the use of conference fixed effects - specifically deleting all of them.  As such, the comparability of this week's models numbers with past years is no longer as accurate.

Using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model most productive team in all of the NCAA FBS is now the Alabama Crimson Tide.

Rank Team
1 Alabama
2 BYU
3 Clemson
4 Coastal Carolina
5 Cincinnati
6 Notre Dame
7 Liberty
8 North Carolina
9 Oklahoma
10 Iowa State
11 Marshall
12 Florida
13 Appalachian State
14 Louisiana-Lafayette
15 Buffalo
16 Texas A&M
17 Iowa
18 Army
19 UCF
20 Texas
21 Ohio State
22 Tulane
23 SMU
24 UAB
25 Georgia Southern


2020 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings

Sunday, December 13, 2020

Head Football Coach Blake Anderson Leaves Arkansas State for Utah State

Late last week Blake Anderson resigned as head football coach at Arkansas State to take up the same position at Utah State.  Here is a look at the Arkansas State football program since 2008 (the first year that I collected all the variables needed for the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model).  This time period spans head coach Steve Roberts last three seasons with the Red Wolves (2008-2010), Hugh Freeze (2011), Gus Malzhan (2012), Bryan Harsin (2013) and the seven seasons under Blake Anderson (2014-2020).

After the figure below is a more detailed look at the Arkansas State Red Wolves football program during head coach Anderson's tenure based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.  (The vertical school color bars represent seasons where head coaches changed).

Blake Anderson [2014-2020*]

2014
Arkansas State finished the regular season at 4-8 (and bowl eligible) where they were defeated by #42 ranked Toledo by a score of (44-63) to finish the season at 7-6 overall.  The Red Wolves' played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that the Red Wolves (SOS) was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "leagues" SOS.  Arkansas State's best regular season victory was against #32 ranked Utah State by a score of (21-14) and their worst loss was to #63 ranked Tennessee by a score of (19-34).  Arkansas State was the #50 ranked team overall, with the #26 ranked offense and the #98 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com

2015
Arkansas State finished the regular season again at 9-3, and played #19 Louisiana Tech in their bowl game, which they lost by a score of (28-47) resulting in a 9-4 overall record. The Red Wolves played  against an “easier” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that the Red Wolves' SOS was between one and two standard deviations greater than the "league" average SOS.  Arkansas State's best regular season victory was against #1 ranked Appalachian State by a score of (40-27) and their worst loss was again to #65 ranked Missouri by a score of (20-27).  Arkansas State was the #77 ranked team overall, with the #43 ranked offense and the #100 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2016
Arkansas State finished the regular season at 7-5 (and bowl eligible).  This year the Red Wolves were victorious in the bowl game against #66 ranked UCF by a score of (31-13) giving them an 8-5 overall record.  The Red Wolves' again played against an “easier” strength of schedule   Arkansas State's best regular season victory was against #31 ranked Troy by a score of (35-3) and their worst loss was to FCS Central Arkansas by a score of (23-28).  Arkansas State was the #29 ranked team overall, with the #63 ranked offense and the #20 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com

2017
Arkansas State finished the regular season again at 7-4, and were defeated in their bowl game against #69 ranked Middle Tennessee State (30-35) to finish 7-5 overall; while playing against a “much easier” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that the Red Wolves (SOS) was greater than standard deviations of the "leagues" SOS.  Arkansas State's best regular season victory was against #65 ranked New Mexico State by a score of (37-21) and their worst loss was again to #118 ranked Nebraska by a score of (36-43).  Arkansas State was the #29 ranked team overall, with the #27 ranked offense and the #58 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2018
Arkansas State finished the regular season at 8-4, and were bowl eligible, where they were defeated by #52 ranked Nevada by the score (13-16) to finish 8-5 overall. The Red Wolves' played against an “easier” strength of schedule.  Arkansas State's best regular season victory was again against #75 ranked Texas State by a score of (33-7) and their worst loss was to #100 ranked Louisiana-Lafayette by a score of (43-47).  Arkansas State was the #47 ranked team overall, with the #24 ranked offense and the #68 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2019 
Arkansas State finished the regular season at 7-5, and were bowl eligible, where they defeated #87 FIU (34-26) to finish 8-5 overall.  The Red Wolves played against an “easier” strength of schedule (SOS).  Arkansas State's best regular season victory was against #58 ranked Georgia Southern (38-33) and their worst loss was to #110 ranked Georgia State (38-52).  Arkansas State was the #92 ranked team overall, with the #43 ranked offense and the #122 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2020
Arkansas State is currently 4-7 with their best win against #68 Georgia State by a score of (59-52) and their worst loss of the season was to currently ranked #117 Texas State by the score of (45-47).  The Red Wolves' are currently the #11 ranked offense, the #126 ranked defense (2nd to last given three teams are currently not playing this Fall) and the #74 ranked team  in the Football Bowl Subdivision.

2020 NCAA FBS Head Coaching Changes 

Tuesday, December 8, 2020

Louisiana Monroe fires head football coach Matt Viator

Louisiana-Monroe fired head football coach Matt Viator after a dismal (0-10) start to the 2020 season.  Below is a figure of the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks since 2008: under the last two seasons of head football coach Charlie Weatherbie (2008-2009), Todd Berry (2010-2015), and head football coach Matt Viator (2016-2020).  As you will notice the Warhawks have been well below average under all five seasons with Viator.

Below is a closer look at the Louisiana-Monroe Warkhawks during head coach Viator's tenure with the program using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from data provided by www.cfbstats.com.

Matt Viator [2016-2020]

2016
Louisiana-Monroe finished the regular season at 4-8 (and bowl ineligible).  The Warhawks' played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that the Warhawks (SOS) was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "leagues" SOS.  Louisiana-Monroe's best regular season victory was against #77 ranked South Alabama by a score of (42-35) and their worst loss was to #84 ranked Georgia Southern by a score of (21-23).  Louisiana-Monroe was the #127 ranked team overall, with the #121 ranked offense and the #117 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com

2017
Louisiana-Monroe finished the regular season again at 4-8, while playing against an “average” strength of schedule.  Louisiana-Monroe's best regular season victory was against #14 ranked Appalachian State by a score of (52-45) and their worst loss was again to #96 ranked South Alabama by a score of (23-33).  Louisiana-Monroe was the #109 ranked team overall, with the #37 ranked offense and the #129 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2018
Louisiana-Monroe finished the regular season at 6-6, and were bowl eligible, but did not merit a bowl invite. The Warhawks' played against an “average” strength of schedule.  Louisiana-Monroe's best regular season victory was again against #31 ranked Georgia Southern by a score of (44-25) and their worst loss was to #123 ranked Georgia State by a score of (14-46).  Louisiana-Monroe was the #91 ranked team overall, with the #82 ranked offense and the #85 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2019 
Louisiana-Monroe finished the regular season at 5-7, and were bowl ineligible, while playing against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  Louisiana-Monroe's best regular season victory was against #81 ranked Coastal Carolina and their worst loss was to #92 ranked Arkansas State.  Louisiana-Monroe was the #101 ranked team overall, with the #55 ranked offense and the #123 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2020
Louisiana-Monroe is currently 0-10 with their worst loss of the season was to currently ranked #117 Texas State by a score of (17-38).  The Warhawks' are currently the #73 ranked offense, the #125 ranked defense and the #126 ranked team (2nd to last given three teams are currently not playing this Fall) in the Football Bowl Subdivision.

2020 NCAA FBS Head Coaching Changes 

Monday, December 7, 2020

South Alabama Jaguars fired head football coach Steve Campbell

Sunday the University of South Alabama announced that they had fired their head football coach Steve Campbell.  South Alabama currently has a 4-7 win/loss record at the time of head coach Campbell's firing.  Below is a figure of the South Alabama Jaguars since 2012 under both head football coach Joey Jones (2012-2017) and head football coach Steve Campbell (2018-2020).  As you will notice the Jaguars have been well below average under all three seasons with Campbell.

Below is a closer look at the South Alabama Jaguars during head coach Campbell's tenure with the program using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from data provided by www.cfbstats.com.

Steve Campbell [2018 - 2020]

2018
South Alabama finished the regular season at 3-9, and were bowl ineligible.  The Jaguars played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that South Alabama's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation from the "leagues" average SOS for that season. South Alabama's best regular season victory was again against #75 ranked Texas State by a score of (41-31) and their worst loss was to #100 ranked Louisiana-LaFayette (Louisiana) by a score of (38-48).  South Alabama was the #113 ranked team overall, with the #103 ranked offense and the #109 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com

2019 
South Alabama finished the regular season at 3-9, and were bowl ineligible, while playing against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  South Alabama's best regular season victory was against #58 ranked Georgia Southern by a score of (20-17) and their worst loss was to #119 ranked Texas State by a score of (28-30).  South Alabama was the #97 ranked team overall, with the #113 ranked offense and the #58 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2020
South Alabama is currently 4-7.   South Alabama's best regular season victory was against #74 ranked Arkansas State by a score of (38-31) and their their worst loss of the season was to currently ranked #68 Georgia State by a score of (14-31).  The Jaguars are currently the #48 ranked offense, the #119 ranked defense and the #112 ranked team in the Football Bowl Subdivision.

2020 NCAA FBS Head Coaching Changes 

2020 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 14

Since not all the teams in the FBS are playing, I have also had to make some changes with the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model in terms of the use of conference fixed effects - specifically deleting all of them.  As such, the comparability of this week's models numbers with past years is no longer as accurate.

Using aggregate data provided from www.cfbstats.com, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model most productive team in all of the NCAA FBS is still the Brigham Young Cougars.

Rank Team
1 BYU
2 Alabama
3 Clemson
4 Coastal Carolina
5 Cincinnati
6 Notre Dame
7 Liberty
8 Oklahoma
9 Iowa State
10 Marshall
11 Florida
12 North Carolina
13 Appalachian State
14 Louisiana-Lafayette
15 Texas A&M
16 Miami (Florida)
17 Ohio State
18 UCF
19 Army
20 Texas
21 Buffalo
22 Tulane
23 SMU
24 Georgia Southern
25 Iowa

2020 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings