Tuesday, December 22, 2020

Auburn Fires Head Football Coach Gus Malzahn

Auburn fired head football coach Gus Malzahn at the beginning of last week.  Head football coach Malzahn was at the helm of the Auburn Tigers football program since 2013.  So here is a look at the Auburn University Tigers football program since 2008 (the first year that I collected all the variables needed for the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model).  This time period spans head coach Tommy Tuberville last season with the Tigers (2008), Gene Chizik (2009-2012), and the eight seasons under Gus Malzahn (2013-2020).

After the figure below is a more detailed look at the Auburn Tigers football program during head coach Malzahn's tenure based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.  (The vertical school color bars represent seasons where head coaches changed).

Gus Malzahn [2013-2020*] {original contract} {third amended contract}

2013 [SEC Champion]
Auburn finished the regular season at 11-1, and won the SEC championship game over #13 ranked Missouri by a score of (59-42).  The Tigers then won their bowl game over #1 ranked Florida State (31-24) to finish 13-1 overall. The Tiger played against a “tougher” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that Auburn's SOS was between one and two standard deviations lower than the "league's" average SOS.  Auburn's best regular season victory was against in state rival #7 ranked Alabama by a score of (34-28) and their ONLY loss was to #11 ranked LSU by a score of (21-35).  Auburn was the #30 ranked team overall, with the #10 ranked offense and the #93 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2014
Auburn finished the regular season at 8-4, and were again bowl eligible, but were defeated by #10 ranked Wisconsin (31-34) to finish 8-5 overall.  The Tigers played against a “much tougher” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that Illinois's SOS was more than standard deviations lower than the "league's" average SOS.  Auburn's best regular season victory was against #9 ranked Louisiana Tech (45-17) and their worst loss was to #65 ranked Texas A&M 38-41).  Auburn was the #28 ranked team overall, with the #20 ranked offense, and the #72 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2015
Auburn finished the regular season at 6-6, and were again bowl eligible, where they defeated #46 ranked Memphis (31-10) to finish the season at 7-6. The Tigers played against a “tougher” strength of schedule (SOS).  Auburn's best regular season victory was again against #39 ranked Louisville by a score of (31-24) and their worst loss was to #32 ranked Mississippi State by a score of (9-17).  Auburn was the #57 ranked team overall, with the #76 ranked offense and the #40 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2016
Auburn finished the regular season at 8-4, and were defeated by #15 ranked Oklahoma (19-35) to finish 8-5 overall. The Tigers played against a “tougher” strength of schedule (SOS).  Auburn's best regular season victory was again against #29 ranked Arkansas State by a score of (34-20) and their worst loss was to #47 ranked Texas A&M by a score of (16-29). Auburn was the #14 ranked team overall, with the #38 ranked offense and the #7 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2017 [SEC Runner-Up]
Auburn finished the regular season at 10-2, and played in the SEC Championship game against #8 ranked Georgia, losing (7-28).  The Tigers were then defeated by #6 ranked UCF (27-34) to finish 10-4 overall.  The Tigers played against a “tougher” strength of schedule (SOS).  Auburn's best regular season victory was against #1 ranked Alabama (26-14) and their worst loss was to #17 ranked LSU (23-27).  Auburn was the #13 ranked team overall, with the #21 ranked offense, and the #17 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2018
Auburn finished the regular season at 7-5, and were again bowl eligible, where they defeated #88 ranked Purdue (63-14) to finish 8-5 overall. The Tigers played against a “tougher” strength of schedule (SOS).  Auburn's best regular season victory was again against #81 ranked Minnesota by a score of (55-31) and their worst loss was to #12 ranked Washington by a score of (21-16).  Auburn was the #29 ranked team overall, with the #52 ranked offense and the #22 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2019 
Auburn finished the regular season at 9-3, and were bowl eligible, where they were defeated by #20 ranked Minnesota by a score of (24-31) to finish 9-4 overall.  The Tigers played against a “much tougher” strength of schedule (SOS).  Auburn' best regular season victory was against #3 ranked Alabama (48-45) and their worst loss was to #14 ranked Florida (13-24).  Auburn was the #22 ranked team overall, with the #30 ranked offense and the #19 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2020
Auburn is currently 6-4 with their best win was over currently #65 ranked Arkansas and their worst loss of the season was to currently ranked #116 South Carolina.  The Tigers are currently the #40 ranked offense, the #88 ranked defense and the #57 ranked team in the Football Bowl Subdivision.

2020 NCAA FBS Head Coaching Changes