Tuesday, January 5, 2021

Texas Fired Head Football Coach Tom Herman

Last week, the University of Texas fired head football coach Tom Herman after four seasons at the helm of the Texas Longhorns program.  Here is a look at the University of Texas Longhorns football program since 2008 (the first year that I collected all the variables needed for the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model).  This time period spans part of head coach Mack Brown (2008-2013), Charlie Strong (2014-2016), and the four seasons under Tom Herman (2017-2020).

After the figure below is a more detailed look at the Texas Longhorn's football program during head coach Herman's tenure based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.  (The vertical school color bars represent seasons where head coaches changed).

Tom Herman [2017-2020] {original contract

2017
Texas finished the regular season at 6-6, becoming bowl eligible where they defeated 33 ranked Missouri (33-16) to finish 7-6 overall.  The Longhorns played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that the Longhorns SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation from the league's SOS.  Texas' best regular season victory was against #36 ranked Iowa State (17-7) and their worst loss was on opening day to #105 ranked Maryland (41-51).  Texas was the #47 ranked team overall, with the #71 ranked offense, and the #28 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2018 [Big 12 Runner-Up]
Texas finished the regular season at 9-3, and played in the Big 12 Championship game against #24 ranked Oklahoma, losing (27-39).  The Longhorns defeated #7 ranked Georgia (28-21) to finish 10-4 overall. The Longhorns played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  Texas' best regular season victory was again against #24 ranked Oklahoma by a score of (48-45) and their worst loss was to #76 ranked Oklahoma State by a score of (35-38).  Texas was the #51 ranked team overall, with the #45 ranked offense and the #55 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.comIn the off-season, head coach Herman received a two year contract extension.

2019 
Texas finished the regular season at 7-5, and were bowl eligible, where they defeated #8 ranked Utah by a score of (38-10) to finish 8-5 overall.  The Longhorns played against a “tougher” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that the Longhorn's SOS was between one and two standard deviations lower than the "league" average SOS.  Texas' best regular season victory was against #42 ranked Kansas State (27-24) and their worst loss was to #43 ranked TCU (27-37).  Texas was the #59 ranked team overall, with the #32 ranked offense and the #88 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2020
Texas finished the regular season at 6-3, and defeated currently ranked #66 Colorado (55-23) in the bowl game to finish at 7-3 overall.  The Longhorns best regular season win was over currently #34 ranked West Virginia and their worst loss of the season was to currently ranked #35 TCU.  The Longhorns are currently the #22 ranked offense, the #61 ranked defense and the #17 ranked team in the Football Bowl Subdivision.  Yes, this is currently a Top 20 program and the head coach was fired.

2020 NCAA FBS Head Coaching Changes