Thursday, December 17, 2020

Illinois Fires Head Football Coach Lovie Smith

Illinois fired head football coach Lovie Smith at the beginning of this week.  Head football coach Smith was at the helm of the Illini football program since 2016.  So here is a look at the University of Illinois football program since 2008 (the first year that I collected all the variables needed for the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model).  This time period spans head coach Ron Zook last four seasons with the Illini (2008-2011), Tim Beckman (2012 - 2014), Bill Cubit (2015), and the five seasons under Lovie Smith (2016-2020).

After the figure below is a more detailed look at the Illinois Illini football program during head coach Smith's tenure based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.  (The vertical school color bars represent seasons where head coaches changed).

Lovie Smith [2016-2020]

2016
Illinois finished the regular season at 3-9, and were bowl ineligible. The Illini played against a “tougher” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that Illinois's SOS was between one and two standard deviations lower than the "league's" average SOS.  Illinois' best regular season victory was again against #72 ranked Michigan State by a score of (31-27) and their worst loss was to #122 ranked Purdue by a score of (31-34).  Illinois was the #99 ranked team overall, with the #112 ranked offense and the #65 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2017
Illinois finished the regular season at 2-10, and were again bowl ineligible.  The Illini played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that Illinois's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "league's" average SOS.  Illinois' best regular season victory was against #80 ranked Western Kentucky (20-7) and their worst loss was to #118 ranked Nebraska (6-28).  Illinois was the #125 ranked team overall, with the #129 ranked offense (i.e. 2nd to last) and the #94 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2018
Illinois finished the regular season at 4-8, and were again bowl ineligible. The Illini played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  Illinois' best regular season victory was again against #81 ranked Minnesota by a score of (55-31) and their worst loss was to #88 ranked Purdue by a score of (7-46).  Illinois was the #121 ranked team overall, with the #87 ranked offense and the #127 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2019 
Illinois finished the regular season at 6-6, and were now bowl eligible, where they were defeated by #68 California by a score of (20-35) to finish 6-7 overall.  The Illini played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  Illinois' best regular season victory was against #12 ranked Wisconsin (24-23) and their worst loss was to in state rival #99 ranked Northwestern (10-29).  Illinois was the #74 ranked team overall, with the #91 ranked offense and the #50 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2020
Illinois is currently 2-4 with their best win was over currently #94 ranked Rutgers and their worst loss of the season was to currently ranked #80 Minnesota.  The Illini are currently the #92 ranked offense, the #69 ranked defense and the #98 ranked team in the Football Bowl Subdivision.

2020 NCAA FBS Head Coaching Changes