Monday, November 20, 2017

Joey Jones Resigns at South Alabama

Earlier today Joey Jones resigned as head football coach from the University of South Alabama Jaguars.  Jones has been the Jaguars only head football coach, with the program starting in 2009 and playing in the FBS in 2012 in the Sun Belt Conference.  So, here is my analysis of the University of South Alabama under head coach Jones since they officially played in the FBS.

Below is a chart of offense, defense and total production of the University of South Alabama football program during Jones' tenure as head football coach, along with who would be the lowest ranked team during this time period (in purple) and the average team (sky blue).  All rankings in this blog come from my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  More details about the program under Jones are after the chart below, including a link to his employment contract are below.




Joey Jones [2012-2017*]


2012
The Jaguars were 2-11 (bowl ineligible) during the inaugural season for the University of South Alabama's football program.  South Alabama played against an "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that their SOS was between one and two standard deviations above the "league" average SOS.  The Jaguars best game again was their victory over #110 ranked Florida Atlantic University (37-34) and their worst loss was to #119 ranked Hawai'i (7-23).  South Alabama had the #112 ranked team in total production with the #120 ranked offense and the #73 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2013
The Jaguars finished the regular season at 6-6 and while they were bowl eligible, the Jaguars did not merit a bowl invitation, which is unfortunate since this was the best team in terms of productivity during Jones' tenure as head football coach.  South Alabama again played against a "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Jaguars best game again was their victory over #36 ranked Western Kentucky (31-24) and their worst loss was to FCS Southern Utah (21-22).  South Alabama had the #55 ranked team in total production with the #68 ranked offense and the #29 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2014
South Alabama finished the regular season at 6-6 and were bowl eligible.  This season they did receive a post-season bowl invitation and were defeated by #89 ranked Bowling Green (28-33) in their post-season bowl game to finish 6-7 overall.  The Jaguars played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that their SOS was plus or minus standard deviation of the "league" average SOS.  The Jaguars best game again was their victory over #34 ranked Appalachian State (47-21) and their worst loss was again to #79 ranked South Carolina (12-37).  South Alabama had the #90 ranked team in total production with the #94 ranked offense and the #76 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015
The Jaguars finished the regular season at 5-7 and were bowl ineligible.  South Alabama played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Jaguars best game was their victory over #4 ranked San Diego State (34-27) and their worst loss was to #117 ranked Texas State (18-36).  South Alabama had the #108 ranked team in total production with the #106 ranked offense and the #101 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2016
South Alabama finished the regular season at 6-6 and were bowl eligible and lost to #36 ranked Air Force (21-45).  The Jaguars played against an "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Jaguars best game again was their victory over #6 ranked San Diego State (42-24) and their worst loss was again to #127 ranked Louisiana-Monroe (35-42).  South Alabama had the #77 ranked team in total production with the #80 ranked offense and the #61 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2017*
At the time of Jones' resignation, the Jaguars were 4-7 overall having just lost (0-52) to then winless Georgia Southern and playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Jaguars best win was against #32 currently ranked Arkansas State by a score of (24-19) and their worst loss was to #118 currently ranked Georgia Southern by a score of (0-52).  At the time of Jones' resignation, South Alabama had the #94 ranked team in total production, with the #111 ranked offense and the #54 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2017 NCAA FBS Head Coach Changes
Minnesota and Tracy Claeys
California and Sonny Dykes
Oklahoma and Bob Stoops
Mississippi (Ole Miss) and Hugh Freeze
UTEP and Sean Kugler
Oregon State and Gary Andersen
Georgia Southern and Tyson Summers
Florida and Jim McElwain
Butch Jones and Tennessee
Jim Mora and UCLA

2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 12

Below is the Top 25 ranked teams using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided at www.cfbstats.com.  According to the Complex Invasion College Football production model, the University of Alabama is back on top as the most productive team in all of the Football Bowl Subdivision as of the end of last week. Links to the previous weeks rankings for this season are at the bottom of the page.
Rank Team
1 Alabama
2 Washington
3 Ohio State
4 Penn State
5 Wisconsin
6 UCF
7 Auburn
8 Georgia
9 Oklahoma
10 Clemson
11 Miami (Florida)
12 Louisville
13 TCU
14 Oklahoma State
15 Notre Dame
16 South Florida
17 Boise State
18 San Diego State
19 Mississippi State
20 Washington State
21 Florida Atlantic
22 Fresno State
23 Northern Illinois
24 LSU
25 Memphis

Previous 2017 Top 25 Rankings
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #11
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #10
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #9
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #8
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #7
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #6
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #5
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #4
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #3
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #2

Sunday, November 19, 2017

UCLA Fires Head Football Coach Jim Mora

Earlier today UCLA fired head football coach Jim Mora.  Mora has been the head football coach at UCLA since 2012 and finishes with a win/loss record of 46-30 overall.  Given the change in leadership coming with the Bruins, let's take a look at the football program since Mora's arrival at UCLA.

Below is a chart of offense, defense and total production of the University of California at Los Angeles football program during Mora's tenure as head football coach, along with who would be the lowest ranked team during this time period (in purple) and the average team (sky blue).   As you may notice the last two seasons has resulted in a decline in overall productivity (below average).  All rankings in this blog come from my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  More details about the program under Mora are after the chart below, including a link to his employment contract are below.


Jim Mora [2012 - 2017*]

2012
The Bruins were 9-3 during the regular season under Mora's first year at the helm of the football program, and lost the Pac12 championship game to Stanford (24-27) and also lost their bowl game to #49 ranked Baylor (26-49) to finish the season 9-5.  UCLA played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that their SOS was plus or minus standard deviation of the "league" average SOS.  The Bruins best game again was their victory over #24 ranked Arizona State (45-43) and their worst loss was to #102 ranked California (17-43).  UCLA had the #36 ranked team in total production with the #19 ranked offense and the #76 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2013
The Bruins again finished the regular season at 9-3 and defeated #54 ranked Virginia Tech by as score of (42-12) to finish overall 10-3.  UCLA played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Bruins best game again was their victory over #12 ranked Washington (41-31) and their worst loss was to #27 ranked Stanford (10-24).  UCLA had the #26 ranked team in total production with the #28 ranked offense and the #34 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2014
UCLA finished the regular season at 9-3 for the third straight season under Mora's tenure at the helm of the football program (bowl eligible), and defeated #37 Kansas State (40-35) in their post-season bowl game to finish 10-3 overall.  The Bruins played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that their SOS was between one and two standard deviations below the "league" average SOS.  The Bruins best game again was their victory over #12 ranked Memphis (42-35) and their worst loss was again to #62 ranked Utah (28-30).  UCLA had the #44 ranked team in total production with the #31 ranked offense and the #71 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015
The Bruins were 8-4 during the regular season under Mora's fourth year at the helm of the football program (bowl eligible), and were defeated by #79 ranked Nebraska in their post-season bowl game by a score of (29-37) to finish 8-5 overall.  UCLA played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Bruins best game again was their victory over #41 ranked California (40-24) and their worst loss was to #81 ranked Arizona State (23-38).  UCLA had the #36 ranked team in total production with the #33 ranked offense and the #55 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2016
UCLA finished the regular season at 4-8 and were bowl ineligible for the first time with Mora as their head football coach.  The Bruins played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Bruins best game again was their victory over #50 ranked BYU (17-14) and their worst loss was again to #116 ranked Arizona State (20-23).  UCLA had the #70 ranked team in total production with the #108 ranked offense and the #25 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2017*
At the time of Mora's departure, the Bruins were 5-6 overall, playing against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Bruins best win was their opening game against #44 currently ranked Texas A&M by a score of (45-44) and their worst loss was to #56 currently ranked Utah by a score of (17-48).  At the time of Mora's departure, UCLA had the #102 ranked team in total production, with the #39 ranked offense and the #123 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2017 NCAA FBS Head Coach Changes
Minnesota and Tracy Claeys
California and Sonny Dykes
Oklahoma and Bob Stoops
Mississippi (Ole Miss) and Hugh Freeze
UTEP and Sean Kugler
Oregon State and Gary Andersen
Georgia Southern and Tyson Summers
Florida and Jim McElwain
Butch Jones and Tennessee

Monday, November 13, 2017

2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 11

Below is the Top 25 ranked teams using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided at www.cfbstats.com.  According to the Complex Invasion College Football production model, the University of Washington is now the most productive team in all of the Football Bowl Subdivision as of the end of last week. Links to the previous weeks rankings for this season are at the bottom of the page.

Rank Team
1 Washington
2 Penn State
3 Wisconsin
4 UCF
5 Georgia
6 Northern Illinois
7 Washington State
8 Alabama
9 San Diego State
10 LSU
11 Ohio State
12 Boise State
13 Appalachian State
14 Toledo
15 Arizona
16 West Virginia
17 Texas
18 Miami (Florida)
19 Stanford
20 Army
21 Texas A&M
22 Auburn
23 Marshall
24 Colorado State
25 Houston

Previous 2017 Top 25 Rankings
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #10
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #9
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #8
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #7
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #6
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #5
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #4
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #3
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #2

Sunday, November 12, 2017

Tennessee Announces Head Football Coach Transition

The University of Tennessee's athletic director John Currie has announced a head football coaching transition today.  Here is a look at the Volunteers football program under Jones' tenure as head football coach at Tennessee.

Below is a chart of offense, defense and total production of the University of Tennessee Volunteers football program during Jones' tenure as head football coach, along with who would be the lowest ranked team during this time period (in purple) and the average team (sky blue).   As you may notice, after two seasons of improvement, Tennessee's productivity has dropped dramatically during the last two seasons, with this season the Volunteers being one of the bottom 20 teams in all of the FBS. All rankings in this blog come from my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  More details about the program under Jones are after the chart below, including a link to his employment contract are below.


Butch Jones [2013 - 2017*]

2013
The Volunteers were 5-7 during the regular season under Jones' first year at the helm of the football program and bowl ineligible.  Tennessee played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that their SOS was between one and two standard deviations below the "league" average SOS.  The Volunteers best game again was their victory over #14 ranked South Carolina (23-21) and their worst loss was to #79 ranked Florida (17-31).  Tennessee had the #91 ranked team in total production with the #91 ranked offense and the #85 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2014
Tennessee finished the regular season at 6-6 under Jones' second year at the helm of the football program (bowl eligible), and defeated #47 Iowa (45-28) in their post-season bowl game to finish 7-6 overall.  The Volunteers played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Volunteers best game again was their victory over #32 ranked Utah State (38-7) and their worst loss was again to #38 ranked Florida (9-10).  Tennessee had the #63 ranked team in total production with the #64 ranked offense and the #52 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015
The Volunteers were 8-4 during the regular season under Jones' third year at the helm of the football program (bowl eligible), and defeated by #64 ranked Northwestern in their post-season bowl game by a score of (45-6).  Tennessee played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that their SOS was plus or minus standard deviation of the "league" average SOS.  The Volunteers best game again was their victory over #13 ranked Georgia (38-31) and their worst loss was to #48 ranked Florida (27-28).  Tennessee had the #28 ranked team in total production with the #46 ranked offense and the #25 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2016
Tennessee again finished the regular season at 8-4 under Jones' fourth year at the helm of the football program (bowl eligible), and again won their post-season bowl game against #58 ranked Nebraska (38-24) to again finish 9-4 overall; the third straight year defeating a Big 10 team in the post-season.  The Volunteers played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Volunteers best game again was their victory over #17 ranked Appalachian State (20-13) and their worst loss was to #91 ranked South Carolina (21-24).  Tennessee had the #65 ranked team in total production with the #16 ranked offense and the #115 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2017*
At the time of Jones' departure, the Volunteers were 4-6 overall, playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Volunteers best win was their opening game against #58 currently ranked Georgia Tech by a score of (42-41) and their worst loss was on a last second touchdown to #110 currently ranked Florida by a score of (20-26).  At the time of Jones' departure, Tennessee had the #111 ranked team in total production, with the #111 ranked offense and the #97 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2017 NCAA FBS Head Coach Changes
Minnesota and Tracy Claeys
California and Sonny Dykes
Oklahoma and Bob Stoops
Mississippi (Ole Miss) and Hugh Freeze
UTEP and Sean Kugler
Oregon State and Gary Andersen
Georgia Southern and Tyson Summers
Florida and Jim McElwain

Monday, November 6, 2017

2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 10

Below is the Top 25 ranked teams using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided at www.cfbstats.com.  According to the Complex Invasion College Football production model, the University of Alabama is still the most productive team in all of the Football Bowl Subdivision as of the end of last week. Links to the previous weeks rankings for this season are at the bottom of the page.

Rank Team
1 Alabama
2 Washington
3 Ohio State
4 Penn State
5 Notre Dame
6 Georgia
7 UCF
8 Wisconsin
9 Oklahoma State
10 Oklahoma
11 Miami (Florida)
12 Florida Atlantic
13 Auburn
14 TCU
15 South Florida
16 Clemson
17 Fresno State
18 Louisville
19 Memphis
20 USC
21 Toledo
22 San Diego State
23 Mississippi State
24 Virginia Tech
25 Washington State

Previous 2017 Top 25 Rankings
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #9
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #8
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #7
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #6
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #5
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #4
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #3
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #2

Sunday, November 5, 2017

AAC vs Mountain West

Kelly Lyell, who is a reporter for the Fort Collins Coloradoan said the following:
and I thought the same as well.  So I looked at whether this holds using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model since the 2008 season.  The results are listed in the table below.  First, I found the top ranked team in each conference and listed the conference.  The AAC/Big East had the better top ranked team in six of the ten seasons.  Then I looked at the average of the top four teams in each conference and found that the AAC/Big East had the better teams in nine of the last ten seasons.  Finally, in terms of conference overall rankings, the AAC/Big East was better than the Mountain West for each season.

Season
Top
Average
2008
Mountain West
AAC
2009
AAC
AAC
2010
AAC
AAC
2011
Mountain West
AAC
2012
AAC
AAC
2013
AAC
AAC
2014
AAC
AAC
2015
Mountain West
AAC
2016
Mountain West
Mountain West
2017*
AAC
AAC