Monday, October 20, 2014

2014 NCAA Football Top 25 for Week 8

We are now halfway through the 2014 NCAA football season.  Here is the latest top 25 based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data from cfbstats.com.  Notice that we have a new number one team in the Michigan State Spartans.

Rank Team
1 Michigan State
2 East Carolina
3 Nebraska
4 Marshall
5 Baylor
6 Wisconsin
7 USC
8 Mississippi
9 Houston
10 Minnesota
11 Alabama
12 Maryland
13 Georgia
14 Memphis
15 Penn State
16 Iowa
17 Utah State
18 TCU
19 UCLA
20 Oregon
21 Northern Illinois
22 Georgia Southern
23 UAB
24 Auburn
25 LSU

Previous 2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 7
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 6
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 5
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 4
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 3
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 2 

Monday, October 13, 2014

2014 NCAA Football Top 25 for Week 7

Here is the latest Top 25 based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data from cfbstats.com.  Of the top four teams, Auburn has dropped from #4 to #7 and Georgia Southern has moved into the top 4.  Yes, that is a shock to me as well.

Notice that the SEC has 7 teams in the top 25, and that Florida State is back in the top 25 at #24.

Rank Team
1 Baylor
2 Michigan State
3 Marshall
4 Georgia Southern
5 Georgia
6 Mississippi
7 Auburn
8 East Carolina
9 Louisville
10 Alabama
11 Duke
12 Mississippi State
13 Oklahoma
14 Oregon
15 Nebraska
16 Wisconsin
17 Kentucky
18 Texas A&M
19 TCU
20 Miami (Florida)
21 LSU
22 Stanford
23 Clemson
24 Florida State
25 Notre Dame

Previous 2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 6
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 5
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 4
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 3
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 2 

Friday, October 10, 2014

MLB Pay and Performance 1988 to 2014

With the MLB regular season in the books and the playoffs underway, I thought that I would get back to looking at MLB pay and performance.  As we state in our book, The Wages of Wins, while there is a positive and statistically significant relationship between relative payroll and team performance (as measured by winning percent); the variation that is common between the two variables is not a lot.  So what I will do here is measure both the relationship and the amount of common variation (using r-squared) for the MLB regular season over a few different time periods.

If you are interested in performing your own payroll and performance analysis, here is a step-by-step guide to analyzing payroll and performance.

First, the two variables are MLB regular season winning percent, which I grabbed from ESPN and MLB team payrolls which I got from USA Today's MLB team payroll page. 

Second, as I have explained previously, I am using relative payroll because average payrolls have been increasing over time and average winning percent is constant over time.  Hence if I use total payroll instead of relative payroll, I will find a weaker relationship since MLB total payrolls are increasing and MLB winning percent is constant.  If I use relative payroll (a team's total payroll divided by that seasons average payroll) then I will be comparing two variables that are stationary to each other and get better results.

How much in common is the variation in relative payroll and the variation in winning percent by season?

1995-2014:  18.1%
2000-2014:  14.8%
2005-2014:  13.7%
2010-2014:    8.4%
2014:  relative payroll is statistically insignificant.

Over different time periods we see that the explanatory power of relative payroll on team winning percent has been declining since 1995.

Monday, October 6, 2014

2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 6

This past weekend has had more movement than an bowl of jello in an earthquake.  We have seen teams at the top (including the model's top team) lose.  Again this ranking is based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model Top 25 ranking using data from cfbstats.com.

After all the changes the model has the following four teams in the college football playoff:  1.  Baylor; 2. Michigan State; 3. Marshall; and 4. Auburn.

Surprises:
1.  Florida State is no where to be found in the top 25 and some teams
2.  Marshall is a playoff team and Georgia Southern is in the top 10.
3.  Mississippi State is ranked below Texas A&M, and
4.  The B1G has six teams in the top 25.

Rank Team
1 Baylor
2 Michigan State
3 Marshall
4 Auburn
5 Louisville
6 Mississippi
7 Georgia
8 Georgia Southern
9 East Carolina
10 Nebraska
11 TCU
12 Texas A&M
13 Oklahoma
14 Mississippi State
15 Alabama
16 Duke
17 Oregon
18 LSU
19 Clemson
20 Missouri
21 Wisconsin
22 Notre Dame
23 Minnesota
24 Ohio State
25 Penn State

Previous 2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 5
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 4
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 3
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 2 

Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Kansas Jayhawks under Charlie Weis

ESPN reports that the Kansas Jayhawk's have fired head football coach Charlie Weis who was in the third year of a five year contract.  Here is my analysis of the Kansas Jayhawk's under former head football coach Weis' tenure using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

In the chart below, I have graphed the Complex Invasion College Football Production Rankings since 2008 by the team's total rank, offensive rank, defensive rank and worst team in the "league".  The first two seasons (2008 & 2009) were under Mark Mangino, the next two seasons (2010 & 2011) were under Turner Gill, and the last three seasons were under Charlie Weis.  As you can tell from the production rankings, Kansas has been a very poor performing football program for a number of seasons.


 
2014* Through the fifth week of the 2014 season.

I am only going to focus on Kansas under Charlie Weis for this blog.  I hope to come back and go back to the 2008 season at a later time.

2012
In his first season at the helm of the Kansas Jayhawks football program the Jayhawks finished at 1-11 and were bowl ineligible.  This season the Jayhawks again played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their SOS was between one and two standard deviations below the "league" average SOS.  The Jayhawk's only victory was over FCS South Dakota State and their worst game was a loss to #72 ranked Iowa State.  Overall, the Jayhawks had the #117 ranked team with the #106 ranked offense and the #118 ranked defense out of 124 FBS teams.

2013
Kansas finished the regular season at 3-9 and were again bowl ineligible.  Kansas again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning they were plus or minus one standard deviation from the league average SOS.  Kansas's best game was their victory over #88 ranked Louisiana Tech and their worst loss was to #109 ranked Iowa State.  Overall, the Jayhawk's had the #114 ranked team with the #122 ranked offense and the #79 ranked defense.

2014
In what ended up as only four games coached by Charlie Weis, the Jayhawks were 2-2.  As of the end of the fifth week, Kansas has the #112 (out of 128) ranked team overall with the #123 offense and the #86 defense.


2014 NCAA FBS Head Coaching Changes (to date):
June Jones at SMU

Monday, September 29, 2014

2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 5

Week number 5 is in the books and we have a new #1 team using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model Top 25 ranking using data from cfbstats.com in the Texas A&M Aggies.  The Aggies are followed by Baylor, Michigan State and LSU as the top 4 teams in overall production.  Marshall who was #1 last week has dropped to #6 in terms of overall team production.  Expect teams to move up and down each week.

Rank Team
1 Texas A&M
2 Baylor
3 Michigan State
4 LSU
5 Nebraska
6 Marshall
7 East Carolina
8 Mississippi
9 Auburn
10 Oklahoma
11 Oregon
12 TCU
13 Alabama
14 Georgia Southern
15 Louisville
16 Wisconsin
17 Houston
18 UCLA
19 Duke
20 Maryland
21 Mississippi State
22 Memphis
23 Georgia
24 Cincinnati
25 UAB

Previous 2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 4
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 3
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 2

Sunday, September 28, 2014

Competitive Balance in MLB

With the end of the Major League Baseball season, I have calculated the Noll-Scully measure of competitive balance and find that MLB was 1.509 for the 2014 season.  Below is a chart of the Noll-Scully measure of competitive balance since 1982.  For the entire time period the average Noll-Scully measure of competitive balance is 1.700.   So for this time period, the 2014 MLB season was more competitive than the average since 1982.


If you are interested in doing this on your own, here is a step-by-step guide to calculate the Noll-Scully measure of competitive balance using Microsoft Excel.