Monday, December 8, 2014

2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 15

The college football regular season has now finished week 15.  As you can see the Oregon Ducks are the most productive team in all of college football using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data from cfbstats.com.

Of the top 4, the model only has one of those chosen by the College Football Playoff committee - Oregon.  Ohio State is #5, Alabama is #7 and Florida State is #19 in terms of overall productivity.

Here is the Top 25.

Rank Team
1 Oregon
2 Marshall
3 TCU
4 Baylor
5 Ohio State
6 Michigan State
7 Alabama
8 Georgia
9 Louisiana Tech
10 Boise State
11 Mississippi State
12 Georgia Southern
13 Georgia Tech
14 Northern Illinois
15 Mississippi
16 Wisconsin
17 East Carolina
18 Memphis
19 Florida State
20 BYU
21 Arizona
22 Cincinnati
23 Oklahoma
24 USC
25 Western Kentucky

Previous 2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 14
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 13
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 12
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 11
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 10
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 9
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 8
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 7
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 6
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 5
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 4
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 3
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 2 

Monday, December 1, 2014

2014 NCAA Football Top 25 for Week 14

The college football regular season has now finished week 14.  As you can see we have a new #1 team in all of college football using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data from cfbstats.com - the Oregon Ducks.

Here is the Top 25.

Rank Team
1 Oregon
2 Marshall
3 Michigan State
4 Baylor
5 TCU
6 Georgia
7 Alabama
8 Wisconsin
9 Ohio State
10 Mississippi State
11 Georgia Southern
12 Louisiana Tech
13 Mississippi
14 Memphis
15 Georgia Tech
16 Arizona
17 BYU
18 East Carolina
19 Boise State
20 Western Kentucky
21 Louisville
22 USC
23 Florida State
24 Auburn
25 Missouri

Previous 2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 13
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 12
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 11
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 10
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 9
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 8
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 7
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 6
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 5
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 4
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 3
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 2 

Thursday, November 27, 2014

College Football Conference Distributions

One of the topics in my First Year Seminar on College Football is about conferences.  Economically, conferences allow schools to lower costs and create consumer demand to generate higher revenues.  Last year the Big 12 conference distributed millions of dollars to the member schools and here is an article listing the amounts distributed since 1997.

Monday, November 24, 2014

2014 NCAA Football Top 25 for Week 13

The college football regular season has now finished week 13.  As you can see Marshall is still the most productive team using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data from cfbstats.com.  Here is the Top 25.

Rank Team
1 Marshall
2 Oregon
3 Michigan State
4 Georgia
5 Baylor
6 Wisconsin
7 Alabama
8 TCU
9 Mississippi State
10 Ohio State
11 Georgia Southern
12 Mississippi
13 Utah State
14 Georgia Tech
15 Memphis
16 BYU
17 Auburn
18 Arizona
19 Oklahoma
20 Florida State
21 Louisville
22 Arizona State
23 East Carolina
24 Miami (Florida)
25 Western Michigan

Previous 2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 12
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 11
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 10
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 9
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 8
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 7
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 6
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 5
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 4
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 3
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 2 

Monday, November 17, 2014

2014 NCAA Football Top 25 for Week 12

The college football regular season is now three quarters of the way finished and the top 25 (and top 4) have had a few changes with the recent weekend results.  As you can see Marshall is still the most productive team using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data from cfbstats.com.  Here is the Top 25.

Rank Team
1 Marshall
2 Oregon
3 Michigan State
4 Baylor
5 TCU
6 Wisconsin
7 Georgia
8 Alabama
9 Georgia Southern
10 Ohio State
11 Mississippi
12 Mississippi State
13 Georgia Tech
14 Miami (Florida)
15 Florida State
16 Duke
17 Louisville
18 Utah State
19 Memphis
20 Louisiana Tech
21 Auburn
22 USC
23 Arizona State
24 Western Michigan
25 Arizona

Previous 2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 11
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 10
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 9
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 8
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 7
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 6
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 5
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 4
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 3
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 2  

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Payroll and Performance in MLS

One of the ideas that we focus on in our book The Wages of Wins is the relationship between team payroll and team performance.  We focus primarily on Major League Baseball as that is the sport that the payroll and performance discussion tends to get the most talk.  What we find is that using team performance (regular season winning percentage) and team payroll (relative payroll when comparing multiple seasons or total payroll for one season) we find that there is a positive relationship between team performance and team payroll.  Additionally, we find that that relationship is statistically significant over multiple seasons, meaning that from a statistical viewpoint the two variables are different from zero.  Each of these we find evidence for.  Yet in terms of the amount that the two variables have in common, we find is less than 20% over most time periods.

So, let's take a look at MLS for just the 2014 regular season.  First let me note that since there are only 19 teams in MLS this season, the number of observations is suspect.  So take the following with a statistical "grain of salt".  Eventually, I will like to come back and analyze this over a much longer time period, but it will take some time for me to get the salary data cleaned up from the pdf's on the internet

Thus given I am only looking at the 2014 regular season the statistical results are not very promising.  For the 2014 regular season neither base salary nor guaranteed salary are statistically significant with respect to standings points.  In other words, from a statistically viewpoint either base salary or guaranteed salary do not explain end of regular season standings points.

Monday, November 10, 2014

2014 NCAA Football Top 25 for Week 11

Now that week 11 is finished, here is the latest Complex Invasion College Football Production Model Top 25 rankings.  Marshall has re-taken the top spot in the Top 25, followed by Baylor, TCU and Oregon.

Rank Team
1 Marshall
2 Baylor
3 TCU
4 Oregon
5 Georgia Southern
6 Michigan State
7 Mississippi
8 Wisconsin
9 Alabama
10 Mississippi State
11 Georgia
12 Louisville
13 Ohio State
14 Nebraska
15 Auburn
16 Duke
17 Utah State
18 LSU
19 Louisiana Tech
20 Miami (Florida)
21 Arizona State
22 UCLA
23 Florida State
24 Georgia Tech
25 USC

Previous 2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 10
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 9
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 8
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 7
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 6
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 5
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 4
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 3
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 2