Wednesday, September 20, 2017

Chris Brown's Observation about East Carolina

Earlier this month Chris B. Brown tweeted about East Carolina being "atrocious".
Here is my analysis of the Pirates under McNeill's tenure as head football coach. What I found was that the team was on an upward trend during the first five years as head coach, and then had one poor season and was let go.  While I cannot answer why former head coach McNeill was let go, I can confirm that East Carolina is currently "atrocious".

In the following season (2016), East Carolina was 3-9 and in terms of the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model the Pirates were ranked #113 out of 128 at the end of the season, with the #114 ranked offense and #100 ranked defense.

And things have gotten worse at the beginning of the 2017 season.  East Carolina after both the second and third full weeks of the season ranked as the worst team in all of the FBS.  Next week is not encouraging as they will face South Florida, which is currently a top 25 team in terms of total production.

Monday, September 18, 2017

2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 3

Below is the Top 25 ranked teams using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided at www.cfbstats.com.  According to the Complex Invasion College Football production model, Penn State is currently the most productive team in all of the Football Bowl Subdivision as of the end of last week. Links to the previous weeks rankings for this season are at the bottom of the page.

Rank Team
1 Penn State
2 Wisconsin
3 Mississippi State
4 Oklahoma State
5 Oklahoma
6 Washington
7 Duke
8 Clemson
9 Oregon
10 Wake Forest
11 South Florida
12 Maryland
13 Minnesota
14 TCU
15 Vanderbilt
16 Washington State
17 Virginia Tech
18 North Carolina State
19 Kansas State
20 UCF
21 Air Force
22 Utah
23 Texas A&M
24 Arizona
25 Texas Tech

Previous 2017 Top 25 Rankings
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #2

Monday, September 11, 2017

2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 2

Below is the Top 25 ranked teams using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided at www.cfbstats.com.  According to the Complex Invasion College Football production model, Air Force is currently the most productive team in all of the Football Bowl Subdivision as of the end of week #2.  It is still very early in the season, so much will be changing as the season moves forward.

Rank Team
1 Air Force
2 Oklahoma
3 Clemson
4 Colorado
5 Penn State
6 Texas Tech
7 Kansas State
8 Oklahoma State
9 Miami (Florida)
10 LSU
11 Mississippi State
12 Alabama
13 Ohio
14 Washington
15 UCF
16 Wisconsin
17 Central Michigan
18 Northern Illinois
19 Colorado State
20 Georgia Tech
21 UTSA
22 Mississippi
23 Navy
24 Wake Forest
25 Connecticut

Monday, July 24, 2017

Hugh Freeze Out at Mississippi

The University of Mississippi (Ole Miss) and head football coach Hugh Freeze have parted ways recently.  While much is being made of the circumstances regrading coach Freeze's departure, I want to look at the football programs productivity during coach Freeze's tenure.

Below is a chart of offense, defense and total production of the Mississippi Rebels football program during Freeze's tenure as head football coach, along with who would be the lowest ranked team during this time period (in purple) and the average team (sky blue).   Mississippi has been trending upward since 2012 except for last season under his tenure. All rankings in this blog come from my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  More details about the program under Freeze are after the chart below.


Hugh Freeze (2012 - 2016) [2015 contract]

2012
During Freeze's first year at the helm of the Rebels football team, Mississippi finished the end of the regular season at 6-6 (and were bowl eligible) and defeated to #31 Pittsburgh (38-17) to finish 7-6 overall.  Mississippi played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Mississippi was within one standard deviation of the "leagues" SOS.  The Rebels best win was over interstate rival #44 ranked Mississippi State (41-24) in the Egg Bowl, and their worst loss was to #53 ranked Texas by a score of (31-66).  Mississippi had the #45 ranked team in total production with the #48 ranked offense and the #39 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model

2013
At the end of the regular season the Rebels were 7-5 (and were bowl eligible) and defeated #43 Georgia Tech (25-17) to finish 8-5 overall.  Mississippi played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Rebels best victory was against #11 LSU (27-24) and their worst loss was to #47 ranked Mississippi State by a score of (10-17).  Mississippi had the #45 ranked team in total production with the #53 ranked offense and the #53 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2014
The Rebels again finished the regular season at 9-3 and were bowl eligible, losing to #1 ranked TCU by a score of (3-42).  Mississippi played against a "much tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that their SOS was more than two standard deviations below the "league" average SOS.  The Rebels best regular season game was a victory (23-17) over #7 Alabama, and their worst loss was to #31 ranked LSU by a score of (3-10).  Overall, the Rebels had the #16 ranked team with the #39 ranked offense and the #12 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015
Mississippi finished the regular season overall at 9-3 (bowl eligible) and defeated by #40 ranked Oklahoma State in their post-season bowl game by a score of (48-20) to finish the season at 10-3.  Mississippi played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Rebels best game again was their victory over #7 ranked Alabama (43-37), and their worst loss was to #48 ranked Florida (10-38).  Mississippi had the #6 ranked team in total production with the #11 ranked offense and the #29 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2016
At the end of the regular season the Rebels were 5-7, and were bowl ineligible for the first time under Freeze's tenure, while playing against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Mississippi had an SOS between one and two standard deviations lower than the "league" average SOS.  The Rebels best win was over #45 ranked Georgia (45-14) and their worst loss was to #85 ranked Arkansas by a score of (30-34).  Mississippi had the #83 ranked team in total production with the #56 ranked offense and the #93 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

Wednesday, July 5, 2017

Ranking the Alabama Crimson Tide Under Head Coach Saban

The USA Today recently had an article ranking Alabama over the last ten seasons during Saban's tenure as head coach with the Crimson Tide.  So that prompted me to do the same, except that the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model that I use starts in 2008, so that I will not have anything to say specifically about the 2007 season.  The author of the article (Paul Myerberg) ranks the Crimson Tide teams [by season] as listed below.  I encourage you to read his thoughts in the article linked at the beginning of this blog, and here I will share mine.

Myerberg
2011
2009
2015
2012
2016
2013
2014
2008
2010
2007

First, let me briefly discuss the process about how I came up with the rankings.  To do this, I grabbed all the offense and defense data for all the FBS teams that I use for the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from 2008 to 2016 and then I ran an offense regression and a defense regression.  I used the coefficient's from the offense and defense (which were all statistically significant and of the correct sign) and multiplied the actual on-field production to get a offense total value and a defense total value.  The higher the value for offense is a better offense and a lower value for defense is a better defense.  Then I subtracted the defense value from the offense value to get the total value.  The advantage here is that we are comparing those nine Crimson Tide seasons using the same "weights" for each season.

Second, I ranked offense, defense and total values since 2008.  Below is my rankings of the Alabama Crimson Tide (in terms of production) overall, with just offense and with just defense.

Total
Offense
Defense
2016
2016
2011
2012
2012
2009
2011
2014
2016
2009
2015
2012
2015
2013
2010
2010
2010
2008
2014
2009
2015
2013
2011
2013
2008
2008
2014

As you can see since 2008, last season's Crimson Tide was the most productive, and the 2008 team was the least productive (excluding 2007 since I don't have that data).  As you can see of the four national championships during Saban's tenure (2009, 2011, 2012 & 2015) that the 2016 team was actually more productive than the others and last year's team would have won except for that last exceptional drive by Clemson, that the 2016 team would also fit in that group.

Thursday, June 8, 2017

Bob Stoops Retires as Oklahoma's Head Football Coach

Recently, Oklahoma head football coach Bob Stoops announced that he is retiring from coaching the Oklahoma Sooners football program.  Stoops' has been at the helm of the Sooners since 1999.  Unfortunatley, I do not have that long of an analysis of FBS programs, so I will start with the 2008 season - a year in which Oklahoma played for the national championship - to the end of this last season.

Below is a chart of offense, defense and total production of the Oklahoma Sooners football program during Stoops' tenure as head football coach, along with who would be the lowest ranked team during this time period (in purple) and the average team (sky blue).   As you may notice, Oklahoma has been trending downward since 2008 with an upward trend over the last few years under his tenure. All rankings in this blog come from my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  More details about the program under Stoops are after the chart below, including his last three contracts are linked below.


Bob Stoops (2008 - 2016) [2005 contract extension; 2009 contract extension]

2008
At the end of the regular season the Sooners were 12-1 and bowl eligible playing for the national championship against #1 ranked Florida, in which Oklahoma lost 14-24.  Oklahoma  played against an "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that their strength of schedule was between one to two standard deviations lower than the "league's" average SOS.  The Sooners best win was over #6 ranked TCU by a score of (35-10) and their only regular season loss was to #5 ranked Texas by a score of (35-45).  Oklahoma had the #3 ranked team in total production with the #1 ranked offense and the #80 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2009
At the end of the regular season the Sooners were 7-5 and bowl eligible, and defeated #48 ranked Stanford (31-27) to finish 8-5 overall. The Sooners again played against an "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Sooners best regular season victory was over #42 ranked Ohlahoma State (27-0) and their worst loss was to #20 ranked Miami (FL) by a score of (20-21).  Oklahoma had the #8 ranked team in total production with the #18 ranked offense and the #12 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2010
The Sooners again finished the regular season at 11-2 and were again bowl eligible where they defeated #53 Connecticut by a score of (48-20).  Oklahoma again played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Sooners best regular season game was a victory (47-41) over #10 Oklahoma State and their worst loss was to #27 ranked Texas A&M by a score of (19-33).  Overall, the Sooners had the #12 ranked team with the #11 ranked offense and the #36 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2011
Oklahoma finished the regular season overall at 9-3 (bowl eligible) and defeated by #59 ranked Iowa in their post-season bowl game by a score of (31-14) to finish the season at 10-3.  Oklahoma played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that their SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation from the average SOS of the league.  The Sooners best game again was their victory over #7 ranked Stanford (41-38) and their worst loss was to #100 ranked Texas Tech (38-41).  Oklahoma had the #19 ranked team in total production with the #12 ranked offense and the #41 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2012
At the end of the regular season the Sooners were 10-2 (and were bowl eligible) and lost to #7 Texas A&M (13-41) to finish 10-3 overall.  Oklahoma played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Sooners best win was over #21 ranked Oklahoma State (51-48) and their worst loss was to #17 ranked Kansas State by a score of (19-24).  Oklahoma had the #23 ranked team in total production with the #11 ranked offense and the #65 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model

2013
At the end of the regular season the Sooners were 10-2 (and were bowl eligible) and defeated #7 Alabama (45-31) to finish 11-2 overall.  Oklahoma played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Sooners best victory was against #15 Oklahoma State (33-24) and their worst loss was to #64 ranked Texas by a score of (20-36).  Oklahoma had the #29 ranked team in total production with the #43 ranked offense and the #18 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2014
The Sooners again finished the regular season at 8-4 and were again bowl eligible, losing to #11 ranked Clemson by a score of (6-40).  Oklahoma played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Sooners best regular season game was a victory (48-16) over #9 Louisiana Tech and their worst loss was to #102 ranked Oklahoma State by a score of (35-38).  Overall, the Sooners had the #33 ranked team with the #23 ranked offense and the #70 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015
Oklahoma finished the regular season overall at 11-1 (bowl eligible) and were again defeated by #11 ranked Clemson in their post-season bowl game by a score of (17-37) to finish the season at 11-2.  Oklahoma played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Sooners best game again was their victory over #15 ranked Baylor (44-34) and their worst loss was to #83 ranked Texas (17-24).  Oklahoma had the #2 ranked team in total production with the #7 ranked offense and the #24 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2016
At the end of the regular season the Sooners were 10-2 (and were bowl eligible) defeating #14 ranked Auburn (35-19) while playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Sooners best win was over #30 ranked Oklahoma State (38-20) and their worst loss was to #39 ranked Houston by a score of (23-33).  Oklahoma had the #15 ranked team in total production with the #1 ranked offense and the #86 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

Wednesday, May 10, 2017

NBA Salary Inequality for the 2016-17 Season

Now that the NBA playoffs are well underway, I thought I would come back to looking at salary inequality among NBA players.  As I wrote earlier, NBA salary inequality had been improving over the last few years.  So I again I collected the NBA salary data from ESPN and calculated the Gini coefficient for the league as a whole.  For the most recent season, we see that salary inequality has taken a step backwards, with the Gini coefficient now 0.5519 and is worse than the US Gini coefficient for 2014 of 0.480.