Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Ron Turner has been Relieved of Duties at Florida International University

Florida International University announced that head football coach Ron Turner has been relieved of duties last weekend. Ron Turner finished at FIU with a 10-30 mark.  So with the change in the head coach, let's take a look at the productivity of the Florida International University Panthers under head coach Turner's tenure.  I will also briefly look at the program under the last five of the six years under the previous head football coach, Mario Cristobal.

Below is a chart of offense, defense and total production of the Florida International University football program since 2008 along with who would be the lowest ranked team during this time period (in purple) and the average team (sky blue).   As you may notice, FIU has been below average for most of this time period. All rankings in this blog come from my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  More details about the program are after the chart below.


Ron Turner (2013 - 2016*)

2013
On January 4, Florida International University hired head football coach Ron Turner.   The Panthers  finished their first season under the helm of head coach Turner at 1-11, playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Florida International was plus or minus within one standard deviation of the leagues average SOS.  Their best game was their victory over #121 ranked Southern Mississippi and their worst loss was to FCS Bethune-Cookman.  Overall, FIU had the #123 ranked team with the #125 ranked offense (the worst in the league) and the #99 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.
 
2014
FIU finished the regular season at 4-8 and were bowl ineligible.  The Panthers again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  This season the Panthers best game was a victory over #73 ranked UAB their worst loss was again to FCS Bethune-Cookman.  Overall, the Panthers had the #82 ranked team with the #111 ranked offense and the #27 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015
The Panthers finished overall at 5-7 while playing against a "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS and again were bowl ineligible.  The Panthers best game was a victory was over #93 ranked Old Dominion and their worst loss was to #101 ranked Florida Atlantic.  FIU had the #95 ranked team in total production with the #101 ranked offense and the #74 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2016
At the time of head football coaches Turner's departure, the Panthers were 0-4 playing against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that FIU's current SOS is more than one standard deviation below the mean of the leagues average SOS.  To date, the Panthers worst loss was to #108 ranked Massachusetts.  FIU at the time of Turner's departure had the #123 ranked team in total production with the #121 ranked offense and the #115 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

Mario Cristobal
From 2007 to the end of the 2012 season, Mario Cristobal was the head coach of the Panthers.  During his tenure the team went 27-47 overall.  The only season the team finished above average was in 2011, where the team was 8-5 and finished as the #37 most productive team in total production.  Each of the other four seasons since 2008, the team finished below average in total production.

Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Les Miles Dismissed as Head Football Coach at LSU

LSU has dismissed head football coach Les Miles after four games into the 2016 NCAA FBS football season.  Coach Miles has served as head football coach at LSU since the 2005 season going 114-34. So let's take a look at the LSU program during Les Miles tenure.  Unfortunately, I only have complete data starting with the 2008 football season (yes, the year after LSU won the national championship).  Miles was originally hired by LSU on January 21, 2005 and paid a base salary of $3,600,000 per year, with additional payments of $600,000 for media appearances and $350,000 from the Tiger Athletic Foundation, plus bonuses detailed in the first contract. So here is a look at the Louisiana State University football program since 2008.

Below is a chart of offense, defense and total production of the LSU football program since 2008 along with who would be the lowest ranked team during this time period (in purple) and the average team (sky blue).   As you may notice, LSU has been above average in terms of total production and defense for each season except for this partial 2016 season, and for offense except the 2009 season. All rankings in this blog come from my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  More details about the program are after the chart below.

 

2008
After finishing the 2007 season as national champions, LSU rewarded head football coach Les Miles with a contract amendment with regard to termination.  The following season LSU finished at 8-5.  The Tigers played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was within one  standard deviations from the "league" average SOS.  LSU's best game was a victory over #17 ranked Troy and their worst loss was to #86 ranked Arkansas.  Overall, the Tigers had the #38 most productive college football team with the #38 ranked offense and the #52 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2009
The Tigers finished the regular season at 9-4. LSU now played a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that LSU's SOS was between one and two standard deviations below the "league" average SOS.  The Tigers best game was a victory over #24 ranked Arkansas and their worst game was to #29 ranked Mississippi.  Overall, the Tigers had the #43 ranked team in terms of total production with the #80 ranked offense and the #14 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2010
LSU finished with a 11-2 mark for the season.  LSU played a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Tigers best game was a victory over #5 ranked Alabama and their worst game was to #21 ranked Arkansas.  LSU finished the season with the #34 ranked team in overall productivity and the #54 ranked offense and the #2712 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2011

At the beginning of the season, head football coach Les Miles contract was amended.  The Tigers finished at 13-1.  LSU played a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Tigers best game was a their regular season victory over #1 ranked Alabama and their only loss was to #1 ranked Alabama in the national championship game.  LSU had the #3 ranked team in terms of total production with the #11 ranked offense and the #2 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2012
The Tigers finished the season again at 10-3. LSU played an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  LSU's best game was a victory over #7 ranked Texas A&M and their worst loss was in their bowl game to #18 ranked Clemson.  Overall, LSU had the #14 ranked team with the #50 ranked offense and the #7 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2013
On January 1, LSU extended Les Miles contract (as well as adjusting some bonuses).   LSU again finished at 10-3.  The Tigers played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  Their best game was their victory over #30 ranked Auburn and their worst loss was to #45 ranked Mississippi.  Overall, LSU had the #11 ranked team with the #21 ranked offense and the #12 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.
 
2014
LSU finished the regular season at 8-4, and lost to #64 Notre Dame in their post season bowl game to end the season at 8-5.  LSU again played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  This season the Tigers best game was a victory over #10 ranked Wisconsin at the beginning of the season and their worst loss was to Notre Dame in the Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl.  Overall, the Tigers had the #31 ranked team with the #62 ranked offense and the #15 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015
During the 2015 season, rumors about head coach Les Miles being terminated abounded.   Even sill the Tigers finished overall a bowl eligible team at 9-3 while playing against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Tigers best game was a victory was over #14 ranked Western Kentucky and their worst loss was to #17 ranked Arkansas.  LSU had the #10 ranked team in total production with the #27 ranked offense and the #14 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  Yes, LSU was a top 10 team with a coach on the hot seat for most of the season.  This gives anecdotal evidence for Humphreys, Paul & Weinbach's research that coaches are fired not because of actual performance, but rather not attaining expected performance.

2016
At the time of head football coaches Miles departure, the Tiger were 2-2 playing against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  To date, the Tigers best game was a victory was over #38 ranked Mississippi State (at the end of LSU's fourth game) and their worst loss was to #44 ranked Auburn.  LSU at the time of Miles departure had the #84 ranked team in total production with the #91 ranked offense and the #62 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

Monday, September 26, 2016

2016 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 4

Below is the list of the Top 25 teams using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided at www.cfbstats.com.  According to the Complex Invasion College Football production model Louisville has jumped up to the number one ranking as the most productive team in the FBS!  Links to the previous weeks rankings at the bottom.


Rank Team
1 Louisville
2 Ohio State
3 Washington
4 Miami (Florida)
5 Michigan
6 Memphis
7 Alabama
8 Missouri
9 Toledo
10 Colorado
11 Texas A&M
12 Clemson
13 Florida
14 TCU
15 Nebraska
16 Troy
17 Southern Mississippi
18 Western Michigan
19 South Florida
20 Boise State
21 Maryland
22 Baylor
23 Houston
24 Virginia Tech
25 Central Michigan

Previous 2016 Top 25 Rankings
2016 Top 25 for Week #3
2016 Top 25 for Week #2

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

WNBA Competitive Balance in 2016

The question at hand for today is how competitive is the WNBA?  Since the regular season ended on Sunday night, I thought I would take a look at the leagues level of competitiveness using the Noll-Scully measure of competitive balance.  Specifically, the Noll-Scully measure captures how far a particular sport or league’s distribution of wins deviates from the purely random outcome.  For those interested in doing your own analysis, here is a step-by-step guide to calculate this on your own.  So now that we have a simple measure of competitive balance, let's take a look at the WNBA and then think about some other leagues level of competitiveness using the same measure.

I grabbed the data on end of the regular season standings from the WNBA website.  After calculating the Noll-Scully I found that for the 2016 season, that the league was a 1.935, which is less competitive than over the last three seasons.  For more details here is a link to the analysis for a number of seasons in the WNBA.

For comparison purposes, here is the Noll-Scully for the NBA over a similar time period.  Notice that the men's league is less balanced than the women's league. 

Monday, September 19, 2016

2016 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 3

With week #3 in the books (if we count the Cal-Hawai'i game as week #0), listed below is the Top 25 teams in terms of their overall production using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided at www.cfbstats.com.  According to the Complex Invasion College Football production model Louisville has jumped up to the number one ranking as the most productive team in the FBS!  Links to the previous weeks rankings at the bottom.

Rank Team
1 Ohio State
2 Miami (Florida)
3 Louisville
4 Washington
5 Toledo
6 Florida
7 Colorado
8 South Florida
9 Baylor
10 Central Michigan
11 Texas A&M
12 Nebraska
13 Michigan
14 Southern Mississippi
15 Georgia Southern
16 Army
17 Clemson
18 Maryland
19 Middle Tennessee
20 Alabama
21 Western Michigan
22 TCU
23 North Carolina State
24 Oregon
25 Texas Tech
Previous 2016 Top 25 
2016 Top 25 for Week #2

Monday, September 12, 2016

2016 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 2

The first NCAA FBS top 25 for the 2016 season using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using the data from www.cfbstats.com is here. While it is very early in the process, below is a list of the most productive teams according to the model.  While there are some teams that we expect to be there (Ohio State and Alabama) there are also a number of teams that we would not expect to be there as well.  As the season progresses, the model will converge to the true estimates for on field activities for the season, and we should expect the most productive teams to be somewhat different than what we have now.

Rank Team
1 Marshall
2 Georgia Southern
3 Ohio State
4 Miami (Florida)
5 Alabama
6 Toledo
7 South Florida
8 Texas A&M
9 Baylor
10 Michigan State
11 Central Michigan
12 Washington
13 Indiana
14 Stanford
15 Nebraska
16 LSU
17 Troy
18 Duke
19 Michigan
20 Kansas
21 Oklahoma
22 Army
23 Navy
24 Missouri
25 Louisville

Wednesday, December 16, 2015

Syracuse Fires Head Football Coach Scott Shafer

Syracuse dismissed head football coach Scott Shafer after three years at the helm of the Orangemen football program.  So here is a look at the Syracuse University football program since 2008.  This time period covers Greg Robinson's last season as head football coach, all of Doug Marrone's tenure and all of Scott Shafer's time at the helm of the football program.

Below is a chart of offense, defense and total production by Syracuse since 2008 along with who would be the lowest ranked team during this time period (in purple) and the median team (sky blue).   As you may notice, Syracuse has been above average on  defense for much of this time period, but below average on offense (except for Marrone's last season in 2012). The rankings below come from my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  More details about the program are after the chart below.


Greg Robinson's last season at Syracuse
2008
Syracuse finished the 2008 regular season at 3-9 and were bowl ineligible.  The Orangemen played against a "much tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was less than two standard deviations from the "league" average SOS, which is a rare occurrence.  Syracuse's best game was their 24-23 victory over #60 Notre Dame and their worst loss was 28-42 to #64 ranked Akron.  Overall, the Orangemen had the #110 most productive college football team with the #103 ranked offense and the #89 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production ModelWith two games left in the regular season, Syracuse fired head football coach Robinson.


 Doug Marrone (2009 - 2012) as head football coach

2009
Under new head football coach Doug Marrone, the Orangemen finished the regular season at 4-8. Syracuse now played a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Syracuse's SOS was between one and two standard deviations below the "league" average SOS.  The Orangemen best game was a 31-13 victory over #21 ranked Rutgers and their worst game was a 9-10 loss was to #103 ranked Louisville.  Overall, the Orangemen had the #93 ranked team in terms of total production with the #99 ranked offense and the #71 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2010
Syracuse finished with a 7-5 regular season (with two of their wins over FCS teams) and defeated #69 Kansas State 36-34 in their post-season bowl game to finish 8-5 overall.  Syracuse played an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Syracuse's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviations from the "league" average SOS.  The Orangemen best game was a 19-14 victory over #15 ranked West Virginia and their worst game was a 20-41 loss to #87 ranked Washington.  Syracuse finished the season with the #49 ranked team in overall productivity and the #67 ranked offense and the #27 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2011  
The Orangemen finished the regular season at 5-7 and out of bowl eligibility.  Syracuse played an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Orangemen best game was a 33-30 victory over #22 ranked Toledo and their worst game was a 20-33 loss was to #80 ranked Pitt.  Syracuse had the #75 ranked team in terms of total production with the #80 ranked offense and the #60 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2012  
The Orangemen finished the regular season again at 7-5 and defeated #63 ranked West Virginia 38-14 in the post season to finish 8-5 overall. Syracuse played an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  Syracuse's best game was a 45-26 victory over #27 ranked Louisville and their worst loss was 10-17 to #90 ranked Minnesota.  Overall, Syracuse had the #30 ranked team with the #26 ranked offense and the #46 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  At the end of the season, Doug Marrone left Syracuse for the head coaching position with the Buffalo Bills.


Scott Shafer (2013 - 2015) as head football coach

2013
The Scott Shafer era, Syracuse finished the regular season 6-6 and were bowl eligible defeating #71 ranked Minnesota 21-17.  The Orangemen played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  Their best game was their victory over #65 ranked Maryland 20-3 and their worst loss was to #69 ranked Northwestern 27-48.  Overall, Syracuse had the #74 ranked team with the #83 ranked offense and the #55 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.
 
2014
Syracuse finished the regular season at 3-9.  Syracuse again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  This season the Orangemen best game was a victory over #59 ranked Central Michigan 40-3 and their worst loss was to #77 ranked Maryland 20-34.  Overall, the Orangemen had the #88 ranked team with the #119 ranked offense and the #17 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015
Syracuse announced that head football coach Scott Shafer would not return for the next season and  the Orangemen finished 4-8 overall.  The Orangemen played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Orangemen best game was a victory was over #42 ranked Boston College (at the end of their season) and their worst loss was to #95 ranked Virginia 38-44.  Syracuse had the #90 ranked team in total production with the #87 ranked offense and the #88 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  With numbers like those ...

2015 In Season NCAA FBS Head Coach Changes
University of Illinois and Tim Beckman
University of Maryland and Randy Edsall
University of North Texas and Dan McCarney 
University of Southern California and Steve Sarkisian 
University of South Carolina and Steve Spurrier 
University of Miami (FL) and Al Golden 
University of Central Florida and George O'Leary 
University of Minnesota and Jerry Kill 
University of Hawai'i and Norm Chow 
University of Louisiana-Monroe and Toddy Berry 
Iowa State University and Paul Rhoades