Wednesday, January 9, 2019

2018 NCAA FBS Competitive Balance

With the end of the NCAA FBS 2018 season, I can update the how competitive the highest tier of college football was using the Noll-Scully Competitive Balance measure.  I have decided to calculate this since 1996 (the year that the NCAA FBS went to overtime to decide games), thus there are no ties and the version used by Roger Noll and Gerald Scully is used here.  For those that are interested in calculating this on their own, here is a step-by-step guide as to how to perform the Noll-Scully competitive balance calculation.

As you can see below, competitive balance slightly improved this past season as the Noll-Scully moved closer to one (a league where wins and losses randomly occur), and that for the last 20 plus years, competitive balance among NCAA FBS programs has been relatively stable.



Tuesday, January 8, 2019

2018 NCAA FBS Final Top 25 Ranking

With all of the NCAA FBS post season now complete here is the final Top 25 rankings using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com

According to the Complex Invasion College Football production model, the Clemson University Tigers are the most productive team in all of the Football Bowl Subdivision rankings.  In terms of overall productivity, Clemson is the best team, and Alabama the second best team; the rest of the FBS is quite a ways behind those two.  Kinda nice that it also worked out that way on the field.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Rank Team
1 Clemson
2 Alabama
3 Utah State
4 Fresno State
5 Mississippi State
6 Appalachian State
7 Georgia
8 Cincinnati
9 UCF
10 Florida
11 Ohio State
12 Washington
13 Ohio
14 Notre Dame
15 Iowa
16 Boise State
17 Michigan
18 Army
19 Miami (Florida)
20 Memphis
21 UAB
22 Penn State
23 West Virginia
24 Oklahoma
25 Virginia

Previous 2018 Top 25 Rankings
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #1
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #2
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #3
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #4
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #5
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #6
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #7
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #8
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #9
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #10
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #11
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #12
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #13
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #14
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #15

Monday, January 7, 2019

2018 NCAA FBS National Championship Game

Tonight the NCAA FBS National Championship game pits the Alabama Crimson Tide from the Southeastern Conference against the Clemson Tigers from the Atlantic Coast Conference .  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.  The model has been updated to include all the bowl game results, which is why the numbers below might be different from last weeks game.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Clemson Tigers.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Alabama Crimson Tide (14-0) of the Southeastern Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #6 currently ranked Mississippi State
Lowest Ranked Loss:  -----
Current Total Production Rank:  #2
Current Offense Production Rank:  #2
Current Defense Production Rank:  #13

Clemson Tigers (14-0) of the Atlantic Coast Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule: Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #15 currently ranked Notre Dame
Lowest Ranked Loss:  -----
Current Total Production Rank:  #1
Current Offense Production Rank:  #1
Current Defense Production Rank:  #4

2018 Bowl Game Analysis
2018 Cure Bowl
2018 New Mexico Bowl
2018 Las Vegas Bowl 
2018 Camellia Bowl 
2018 New Orleans Bowl
2018 Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl
2018 DXL Frisco Bowl 
2018 Bad Boys Mowers Gasparilla Bowl 
2018 Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl
2018 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl 
2018 Jared Birmingham Bowl 
2018 Dollar General Bowl 
2018 Sofi Hawai'i Bowl 
2018 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl 
2018 ServPro First Responder Bowl 
2018 Quick Lane Bowl 
2018 Cheez-it Bowl 
2018 Walk On's Independence Bowl 
2018 New Era Pinstripe Bowl

Thursday, January 3, 2019

2018 NFL Payroll and Performance

Yesterday, I blogged about competitive balance in the NFL for the 2018 season.  Today I will look at the relationship between payroll and performance in the NFL for the 2018 season.  The basic idea is that teams that pay higher salaries to their players will perform better.  As sports economists, we tend to be highly skeptical of this hypothesis, but it is a persistent topic - especially in baseball.  So let's see what happens.

To do this, first I need the data.  Payroll data is from spotrac and performance data is from profootball reference.   Once that is done, the first thing I did was to calculate the correlation coefficient between payroll and performance, and the correlation between payroll and performance is NEGATIVE!!  That is a first for me.  Now, one thing we know statistically is that you should not draw conclusions from descriptive statistics, but there are those that do.  If one was to draw a conclusion (again this is not statistically valid, then those who do this would have to conclude that lower pay results in better performing NFL teams).  I doubt you will hear much from the pay and performance crowd about the 2018 NFL season.

Running a regression between performance and payroll (with robust standard errors), I get that the coefficient on payroll is negative and statistically significant as well.  This is a problem for the payroll and performance hypothesis holders.  Additionally, just for the 2018 season, payroll "explains" only 17% of team performance, so this seems to be not only the wrong sign, but also the not a lot.

Wednesday, January 2, 2019

2018 NFL Competitive Balance

With the end of the NFL regular season, let's take a look at how competitive the NFL was this past season.  I grabbed the NFL standings data from profootballreference, and then calculated the Noll-Scully measure of competitive balance.  For those interested, here is a step-by-step guide to calculating the Noll-Scully Competitive Balance measure.

For this past season the Noll-Scully measure of competitive balance for the entire league was 1.445, and for the AFC the Noll-Scully was 1.364 and the NFC the Noll-Scully was 1.569.

Recent historical perspective on competitive balance in the NFL.

Tuesday, January 1, 2019

2018 AllState Sugar Bowl

In today's AllState Sugar Bowl the Georgia Bulldogs from the Southeastern Conference face the Texas Longhorns from the Big 12 Conference.  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Georgia Bulldogs.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Georgia Bulldogs (11-2) of the Southeastern Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Tougher
Highest Ranked Victory:  #15 currently ranked Florida
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #33 currently ranked LSU
Current Total Production Rank:  #5
Current Offense Production Rank:  #10
Current Defense Production Rank:  #15

Texas Longhorns (9-4) of the Big 12 Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #23 currently ranked Oklahoma
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #68 currently ranked Oklahoma State
Current Total Production Rank:  #52
Current Offense Production Rank:  #51
Current Defense Production Rank:  #50

2018 Bowl Game Analysis
2018 Cure Bowl
2018 New Mexico Bowl
2018 Las Vegas Bowl 
2018 Camellia Bowl 
2018 New Orleans Bowl
2018 Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl
2018 DXL Frisco Bowl 
2018 Bad Boys Mowers Gasparilla Bowl 
2018 Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl
2018 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl 
2018 Jared Birmingham Bowl 
2018 Dollar General Bowl 
2018 Sofi Hawai'i Bowl 
2018 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl 
2018 ServPro First Responder Bowl 
2018 Quick Lane Bowl 
2018 Cheez-it Bowl 
2018 Walk On's Independence Bowl 
2018 New Era Pinstripe Bowl

2018 Rose Bowl

In today's Rose Bowl the Ohio State Buckeyes from the Big 10 Conference face the Washington Huskies from the Pacific 12 Conference.  Here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Washington Huskies.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1) of the Big 10 Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #12 currently ranked Michigan
ONLY Loss:  #67 currently ranked Purdue
Current Total Production Rank:  #14
Current Offense Production Rank:  #4
Current Defense Production Rank:  #76

Washington Huskies (10-3) of the Pacific 12 Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #24 currently ranked Utah (twice)
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #64 currently ranked California
Current Total Production Rank:  #11
Current Offense Production Rank:  #30
Current Defense Production Rank:  #3

2018 Bowl Game Analysis
2018 Cure Bowl
2018 New Mexico Bowl
2018 Las Vegas Bowl 
2018 Camellia Bowl 
2018 New Orleans Bowl
2018 Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl
2018 DXL Frisco Bowl 
2018 Bad Boys Mowers Gasparilla Bowl 
2018 Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl
2018 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl 
2018 Jared Birmingham Bowl 
2018 Dollar General Bowl 
2018 Sofi Hawai'i Bowl 
2018 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl 
2018 ServPro First Responder Bowl 
2018 Quick Lane Bowl 
2018 Cheez-it Bowl 
2018 Walk On's Independence Bowl 
2018 New Era Pinstripe Bowl