Monday, August 18, 2014

SI on Changes in CFB Rankings

Short video about changes in the college football rankings for the selection committee.

Monday, June 23, 2014

Bowling Green under Dave Clawson

Dave Clawson took over the helm as the Bowling Green head football coach starting with the 2009 season and finished as head football coach after accepting the head football coaching position at Wake Forest.  Here is my analysis of the Bowling Green Falcon's football team during coach Clawson's tenure at Bowling Green using the using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model starting with his first season as head football coach.  Below is a chart with the Falcons ranking over the last five seasons as well as the worst team in the Football Bowl Subdivision during that time as well.  As you can see, Bowling Green has been a program on the rise over the last three seasons, and has been above average for the last two seasons.


2009
In Clawson's first season as head football coach, the Falcons finished the regular season at 7-5 making them bowl eligible but lost to #78 ranked Idaho to finish overall at 7-6.  Bowling Green played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was within one standard deviation of the "league" average.  The Falcon's best game was a victory over #49 ranked Troy and their worst game was a loss to #90 ranked Marshall.  Overall, the Falcon's had the #52 ranked team with the #32 ranked offense and the #84 ranked defense.

2010
This was Clawson's worst season as head football coach, as the Falcons finished the regular season at 2-10 making them bowl ineligible.  Bowling Green again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average.  The Falcon's best game was a victory over #82 ranked Marshall and their worst game was a loss to #99 ranked Buffalo.  Overall, the Falcons had the #110 ranked team with the #112 ranked offense and the #99 ranked defense.

2011
This was the second to worst season under Clawson even though the Falcons improved their regular season in the win/loss column to 5-7, still making the Falcons bowl ineligible.  Bowling Green again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average.  The Falcon's best game was a victory over #13 ranked Temple and their worst game was a loss to #85 ranked Kent State.  Overall, the Falcons had the #98 ranked team with the #102 ranked offense and the #87 ranked defense.

2012
This was the season that turned Bowling Green around, with the Falcons finishing the regular season at 8-4 and playing in a post-season bowl.  While the Falcons lost to #12 ranked San Jose State to finish overall at 8-5, this is a big change from the previous two seasons.  Bowling Green again played against an "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that Bowling Green's SOS was between one and two standard deviations higher than the "league" average.  Bowling Green's best game was their victory over #54 ranked Ohio and their worst game was a loss to #71 ranked Toledo.  Overall, the Falcons had the #42 ranked team with the #77 ranked offense and the #13 ranked defense.

2013
In what ended up as Clawson's last season as Bowling Green head football coach, the Falcons finished the regular season at 8-4; and winning the Mid American Conference championship game over #16 ranked Northern Illinois to finish the regular season at 9-4.  The Falcons lost their bowl game (not coached by Clawson) to #67 ranked Pittsburg to finish overall at 9-5.  Bowling Green again played against an "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average.  Bowling Green's best game was their Mid American Conference victory over #16 ranked Northern Illinois.  Their worst loss was to #77 ranked Indiana.  Overall, the Falcons had the #17 ranked team with the #25 ranked offense and the #17 ranked defense.

Analysis of 2013 NCAA FBS Head Coach Changes
Louisville and Charlie Strong
UAB and Garrick McGee
Western Kentucky and Bobby Petrino
Arkansas State and Bryan Harsin
Army and Rich Ellerson
Vanderbilt and James Franklin
Penn State and Bill O'Brien
UMass and Charley Molnar
Boise State and Chris Petersen
Texas and Mack Brown
Washington and Steve Sarkisian
Wake Forest and Jim Grobe
Wyoming and Dave Christensen
Eastern Michigan and Ron English
Florida Atlantic and Carl Pelini
Miami of Ohio and Don Treadwell
UConn and Paul Pasqualoni
USC and Lane Kiffen

Thursday, June 19, 2014

Louisville under Charlie Strong

At the end of the 2013 NCAA FBS season, Charlie Strong left the Louisville Cardinals as head football coach to take the head football coach at the University of Texas.  Here is my analysis of the Louisville Cardinals during coach Strong's tenure at Louisville using the using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model starting with his first season as head football coach.  Below is a chart with the Cardinals ranking over the last four seasons as well as the worst team in the Football Bowl Subdivision during that time as well.


2010
In Strong's first season as head football coach, the Cardinals finished the regular season at 6-6 making them bowl eligible and they defeated #44 ranked Southern Mississippi to finish overall at 7-6.  Louisville played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was within one standard deviation of the "league" average.  Louisville's best game was their bowl victory over #44 ranked Southern Mississippi and their worst game was a loss to #86 ranked Oregon State.  Overall, the Cardinals had the #35 ranked team with the #48 ranked offense and the #23 ranked defense.

2011
This was the worst of the four seasons under Strong even though the Cardinals finished  the regular season better in the win/loss column at 7-5.  In the bowl that season Louisville lost to #42 ranked North Carolina State to finish overall at 7-6.  Louisville played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average.  Louisville's best game was their bowl victory over #24 ranked West Virginia and their worst game was a loss to #90 ranked Marshall.  Overall, the Cardinals had the #66 ranked team with the #90 ranked offense and the #43 ranked defense.

2012
This was the season that turned Louisville around, with the Cardinals finishing the regular season at 10-2.  They also defeated #13 ranked Florida to finish overall at 11-2.  Louisville again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average.  Louisville's best game was their victory over #8 ranked Cincinnati and their worst game was a loss to #70 ranked Connecticut.  Overall, the Cardinals had the #27 ranked team with the #31 ranked offense and the #27 ranked defense.

2013
In what ended up as Strong's last season as Louisville head football coach, the Cardinals finished the regular season at 11-1 and they defeated #46 ranked Miami (FL) to finish overall at 12-1.  Louisville played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average.  Louisville's best game was their victory over #22 ranked Houston and their second best victory was over #25 Cincinnati.  All of their other victories were against teams in the bottom half of the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model Rankings.  Their only loss was to #20 ranked Central Florida.  Overall, the Cardinals had the #2 ranked team with the #11 ranked offense and the #1 ranked defense.   Yes, Louisville had the best defense in the nation!

Analysis of 2013 NCAA FBS Head Coach Changes
UAB and Garrick McGee
Western Kentucky and Bobby Petrino
Arkansas State and Bryan Harsin
Army and Rich Ellerson
Vanderbilt and James Franklin
Penn State and Bill O'Brien
UMass and Charley Molnar
Boise State and Chris Petersen
Texas and Mack Brown
Washington and Steve Sarkisian
Wake Forest and Jim Grobe
Wyoming and Dave Christensen
Eastern Michigan and Ron English
Florida Atlantic and Carl Pelini
Miami of Ohio and Don Treadwell
UConn and Paul Pasqualoni
USC and Lane Kiffen

Tuesday, June 10, 2014

McGee at UAB

Garrick McGee resigned from the University of Alabama-Birmingham to take the offensive coordinator position under Bobby Petrino at Louisville.  McGee only lasted two seasons at the helm of the Blazers, which is longer than Petrino did at Western Kentucky.  So continuing on with the teams that had head football coaching changes during or after the 2013 football season, let's take a look at UAB under McGee using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2012
In McGee's first season at UAB the Blazers finished 3-9 playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average. Alabama-Birmingham's best game was a victory over #67 ranked Marshall with the other two wins over teams ranked at 118 and 125.  The Blazer's worst game was a loss to #121 ranked Tulane.  For the season, UAB finished as the #106 ranked team with the #82 ranked offense and the #114 ranked defense.

2013
In what ended up as McGee's last season as Blazer's head football coach the team finished the regular season at 2-10 and was again bowl ineligible for 2013.  UAB again played against an "average" SOS and their two wins were over teams ranked above 120 (Florida International University at #123 and FCS Northwestern State is given a rank of #126 as are all FCS schools).  UAB's worst defeat came against #121 Southern Mississippi at the end of the season.  Unfortunately for UAB, they were moving in the wrong direction on both sides of the ball as compared to the 2012 campaign.  While UAB finished as the #113 ranked team overall, the offensive production fell relative to the rest of the "league" to finish ranked at #89 and even though McGee changed defensive coordinator's mid-season, their defensive rank finished at #120.

Analysis of 2013 NCAA FBS Head Coach Changes
Western Kentucky and Bobby Petrino
Arkansas State and Bryan Harsin
Army and Rich Ellerson
Vanderbilt and James Franklin
Penn State and Bill O'Brien
UMass and Charley Molnar
Boise State and Chris Petersen
Texas and Mack Brown
Washington and Steve Sarkisian
Wake Forest and Jim Grobe
Wyoming and Dave Christensen
Eastern Michigan and Ron English
Florida Atlantic and Carl Pelini
Miami of Ohio and Don Treadwell
UConn and Paul Pasqualoni
USC and Lane Kiffen