Thursday, December 13, 2018

2018 New Mexico Bowl

This Saturday the New Mexico Bowl pits the North Texas Mean Green from Conference USA against the Utah State Aggies from the Mountain West Conference.  So here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Utah State Aggies.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

North Texas Mean Green (9-3) of Conference USA
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Much Easier
Highest Ranked Victory:  #43 currently ranked Southern Mississippi.
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #107 currently ranked Old Dominion.
Current Total Production Rank:  #19
Current Offense Production Rank:  #13
Current Defense Production Rank:  #39

Utah State Aggies (10-2) of the Mountain West Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Easier
Highest Ranked Victory:  #51 currently ranked BYU.
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #59 currently ranked Michigan State.
Current Total Production Rank:  #7
Current Offense Production Rank:  #7
Current Defense Production Rank:  #28

2018 Bowl Game Analysis
2018 Cure Bowl

2018 Cure Bowl

This Saturday the Football Bowl Subdivision season kicks off with the Cure Bowl pitting the La-LaFayette Rajin Cajuns from the Sun Belt Conference against the Tulane Green Wave from the American Athletic Conference.  So here is my analysis of based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, which uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives a small edge to the Tulane Green Wave.  Below is a "tale of the tape" for each of these two football programs this season.

La-LaFayette Rajun Cajuns (7-6) of Sun Belt Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #45 currently ranked Arkansas State.
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #109 currently ranked Coastal Carolina.
Current Total Production Rank:  #91
Current Offense Production Rank:  #43
Current Defense Production Rank:  #115

Tulane Green Wave (6-6) of the American Athletic Conference
Based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model:
Strength of Schedule:  Average
Highest Ranked Victory:  #17 currently ranked Memphis.
Lowest Ranked Loss:  #99 currently ranked Wake Forest.
Current Total Production Rank:  #86
Current Offense Production Rank:  #75
Current Defense Production Rank:  #87

Monday, December 10, 2018

2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 15

With all of the NCAA FBS regular season now complete here is the latest Top 25 rankings using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.  According to the Complex Invasion College Football production model, the Clemson University Tigers are the most productive team in all of the Football Bowl Subdivision rankings.  In terms of overall productivity, Clemson is the best team, and Alabama the second best team; the rest of the FBS is quite a ways behind those two.

Here are the details of the Complex Invasion College Football production model.

Rank Team
1 Clemson
2 Alabama
3 Fresno State
4 Mississippi State
5 Georgia
6 UCF
7 Utah State
8 Appalachian State
9 Cincinnati
10 Notre Dame
11 Washington
12 Michigan
13 Miami (Florida)
14 Ohio State
15 Florida
16 Iowa
17 Memphis
18 Boise State
19 North Texas
20 Penn State
21 West Virginia
22 Ohio
23 Oklahoma
24 Utah
25 Washington State


Previous 2018 Top 25 Rankings
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #1
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #2
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #3
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #4
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #5
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #6
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #7
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #8
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #9
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #10
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #11
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #12
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #13
2018 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #14

Tuesday, December 4, 2018

Urban Meyer Retires as Ohio State's Head Football Coach

Today Urban Meyer announced his retirement as head football coach for The Ohio State Buckeyes.  Since the 2008 season, Ohio State has had three head coaches - Jim Tressel, who was fired in 2010, Luke Fickell who was an interim head coach for the 2011 season (now head coach at Cincinnati) and Urban Meyer, who was head coach from 2012 until the end of this season.  As you can see below, not only has Ohio State has been above average for each season, but from 2013 to 2017, they have been a top 5 program in all of the BCS.  A remarkable run.



Urban Meyer [2012-2018]

2012
The Buckeyes finished the regular season at (12-0); but were bowl ineligible due to a bowl ban.  Ohio State played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that the Buckeye's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "league" average SOS.  Ohio State's best regular season victory against #19 ranked UCF by a score of (31-16).  The Buckeyes finished the season as the #15 ranked team overall, with the #32 ranked offense and the #15 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2013
The Buckeyes finished the regular season again at (12-0); and this year were eligible to play in the Big 10 Conference Championship game against #6 ranked Michigan State where they were defeated (24-34).  Ohio State went on to play #10 ranked Clemson where they lost by a score of (35-40) to finish (12-2) overall.  Ohio State played against an “average” strength of schedule.  Ohio State's best regular season victory against #9 ranked Wisconsin by a score of (31-24).  The Buckeyes finished the season as the #5 ranked team overall, with the #3 ranked offense and the #62 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2014:  National Champions
The Buckeyes finished the regular season at (11-1); and this year were eligible to play in the Big 10 Conference Championship game against #10 ranked Wisconsin where they defeated the Badgers (59-0).  Ohio State went on to play #7 ranked Alabama and won by a score of (42-35), which propelled them to the first national championship game against #2 Oregon and the Buckeyes won by a score of (42-20) to finish (14-1) overall.  Ohio State played against a “tougher” strength of schedule, meaning that the Buckeyes strength of schedule was between one and two standard deviations lower than the "league" average strength of schedule.  Ohio State's best regular season victory against #3 ranked Michigan State by a score of (49-37) and only regular season loss was to #56 ranked Virginia Tech by a score of (21-35).  The Buckeyes finished the season as the #4 ranked team overall, with the #2 ranked offense and the #60 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2015
The Buckeyes finished the regular season at (11-1); and defeated #27 ranked Notre Dame (44-28) to finish the season overall at (12-1).  Ohio State played against an “average” strength of schedule.  Ohio State's best regular season victory against arch rival #24 ranked Michigan by a score of (42-13), and their only regular season loss was to #38 ranked Michigan State (14-17).  The Buckeyes finished the season as the #3 ranked team overall, with the #29 ranked offense and the #6 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2016
The Buckeyes finished the regular season at (11-1); and were defeated by #5 ranked Clemson (0-31) to finish the season overall at (11-2).  Ohio State played against a “tougher” strength of schedule.  Ohio State's best regular season victory against arch rival #4 ranked Michigan by a score of (30-27), and their only regular season loss was to #12 ranked Penn State (21-24).  The Buckeyes finished the season as the #3 ranked team overall, with the #30 ranked offense and the #2 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2017
The Buckeyes finished the regular season again at (10-2); and played in the Big 10 Conference Championship game against #7 ranked Wisconsin where they defeated the Badgers by a score of  (27-21).  Ohio State went on to play #24 ranked USC Trojans winning by a score of (24-7) to finish (12-2) overall.  Ohio State played against an “average” strength of schedule.  Ohio State's best regular season victory against #3 ranked Penn State by a score of (39-38) and their worst loss was to #58 ranked Iowa (24-55).  The Buckeyes finished the season as the #2 ranked team overall, with the #4 ranked offense and the #18 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2018
The Buckeyes currently are (12-1); after defeating currently ranked #82 Northwestern in the Big 10 Championship game while playing against an “average” strength of schedule.  During the regular season Ohio State's best game was their victory against arch rival currently ranked #12 Michigan by a score of (62-39) and their only loss was to currently ranked #66 Pirdue by a score of (20-49).  The Buckeye's currently rank as the #14 team overall, with the #4 offense and the #77 defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2018 NCAA FBS Head Coaching Changes
Mike Jinks at Bowling Green
DJ Durkin at Maryland
Bobby Petrino and Louisville
Mike MacIntyre and Colorado
Everett Withers and Texas State
Brad Lambert and Charlotte 
Mark Whipple and Massachusetts
John Bonamego and Central Michigan
David Beaty and Kansas
Larry Fedora and North Carolina
Kliff Kingsbury and Texas Tech
Mike Sanford and Western Kentucky
Paul Johnson and Georgia Tech
Scottie Montgomery and East Carolina
Bill Snyder and Kansas State
Terry Bowden and Akron
Turner Gill and Liberty

Turner Gill retires as Liberty Flames Head Football Coach

Turner Gill retires as Liberty Universities head football coach, to take care of his wife.  Our hearts are with the Gill family, and our prayer is for the Lord to be glorified.

2018
Liberty has only been officially an FBS member for this season, so the analysis will be short.  The Flames finished the regular season at (6-6); and are bowl ineligible, since they played two FCS teams (Idaho State and Norfolk State).  According to rule 18.7.2.2.1 - Football Championship Subdivision Opponent, only one FCS victory can count towards bowl eligibility.  Liberty played against an “easier” strength of schedule, meaning that the Flames strength of schedule was between one and two standard deviations higher than the "league" average strength of schedule.  Liberty's best game was their victory against currently ranked #36 Troy by a score of (22-16) and their worst loss was to currently ranked #123 New Mexico State (first game of the two games played against New Mexico State this season) by a score of (41-49).  The Flames currently rank as the #99 team overall, with the #56 offense and the #118 defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2018 NCAA FBS Head Coaching Changes
Mike Jinks at Bowling Green
DJ Durkin at Maryland
Bobby Petrino and Louisville
Mike MacIntyre and Colorado
Everett Withers and Texas State
Brad Lambert and Charlotte 
Mark Whipple and Massachusetts
John Bonamego and Central Michigan
David Beaty and Kansas
Larry Fedora and North Carolina
Kliff Kingsbury and Texas Tech
Mike Sanford and Western Kentucky
Paul Johnson and Georgia Tech
Scottie Montgomery and East Carolina
Bill Snyder and Kansas State
Terry Bowden and Akron

Akron Fires Head Football Coach Terry Bowden

Sunday the University of Akron announced that they fired head football coach Terry Bowden. Bowden has been at Akron since 2012.  Before that Rob Ianello was head football coach from 2010 to 2011 and J.D. Brookhart from 2004 to 2009.  As you can see in the figure below, Akron has been below average in total production rank for each of the past eleven seasons.  It is interesting to note that a reference was made in the article linked at the beginning of this paragraph that poor offensive rank was a factor.  After the figure below is more details about the Zips as well as a link to Bowden's contract.



Terry Bowden [2012-2018]

2012
The Zips finished the regular season at (1-11); and were bowl ineligible, while playing against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that Akron's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "league" average SOS.  Akron's only victory against FCS Morgan State by a score of (66-6) and their worst regular season loss was to #124 ranked Massachusetts (14-22).  The Zips finished the season as the #101 ranked team overall, with the #87 ranked offense and the #101 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2013
The Zips finished the regular season at (5-7); and were bowl ineligible, while playing against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  Akron's best victory against #53 ranked Toledo by a score of (31-29) and their worst regular season loss was to #82 ranked Ohio (3-43).  The Zips finished the season as the #98 ranked team overall, with the #109 ranked offense and the #70 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2014
The Zips finished the regular season at (5-7); and were bowl ineligible, while playing against an “easier” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that Akron's SOS was between one and two standard deviations higher than the "league" average SOS.  Akron's best victory against #54 ranked Pittsburgh by a score of (21-10) and their worst regular season loss was to arch rival #113 ranked Kent State (24-27).  The Zips finished the season as the #87 ranked team overall, with the #119 ranked offense and the #46 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2015
The Zips finished the regular season at (7-5); were bowl eligible, and defeated #62 ranked Utah State (23-21) to finish the season overall at (8-5);  while playing against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  Akron's best regular season victory against #91 ranked Buffalo by a score of (42-21) and their worst regular season loss was to #74 ranked Ohio (12-14).  The Zips finished the season as the #68 ranked team overall, with the #82 ranked offense and the #44 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com. This was the best team under Bowden's tenure as head football coach.
 
2016
The Zips finished the regular season at (5-7); and were bowl ineligible, while playing against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  Akron's best victory against #53 ranked Miami(OH) by a score of (35-13) and their worst regular season loss was to #122 ranked Bowling Green (28-38).  The Zips finished the season as the #100 ranked team overall, with the #87 ranked offense and the #89 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2017
The Zips finished the regular season at (7-5); and played in the MidAmerican conference championship game were they were defeated by #39 ranked Toledo (28-45).  Akron played their bowl game against #9 ranked Florida Atlantic and were vastly mis-matched, losing (3-50).  Akron played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  Akron's best regular season victory was against #22 ranked Ohio by a score of (37-34) and their worst regular season loss was to #64 ranked Miami(OH) (14-24).  The Zips finished the season as the #100 ranked team overall, with the #80 ranked offense and the #104 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2018
The Zips finished the regular season at (4-8); and are bowl ineligible, while playing against an “average” strength of scheduleKansas State's best game was their victory against currently ranked #82 Northwestern by a score of (39-34) and their worst loss was to currently ranked #122 Bowling Green by a score of (6-21).  The Zips currently rank as the #111 team overall, with the #125 offense and the #72 defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.


2018 NCAA FBS Head Coaching Changes
Mike Jinks at Bowling Green
DJ Durkin at Maryland
Bobby Petrino and Louisville
Mike MacIntyre and Colorado
Everett Withers and Texas State
Brad Lambert and Charlotte 
Mark Whipple and Massachusetts
John Bonamego and Central Michigan
David Beaty and Kansas
Larry Fedora and North Carolina
Kliff Kingsbury and Texas Tech
Mike Sanford and Western Kentucky
Paul Johnson and Georgia Tech
Scottie Montgomery and East Carolina
Bill Snyder and Kansas State

Monday, December 3, 2018

Bill Snyder Retires at Kansas State

Last Sunday, Bill Snyder announced that he is retiring as head football coach from the Kansas State Wildcats.  In the figure below is the Kansas State Wildcats production ranks (offense, defense, total, average, worst) for 2008 to 2018.  This period covers the last season of Ron Prince and the head coach Snyder's second coaching stint at Kansas State.  As you can see in the figure below that since 2011, Kansas State was above average except for 2015 and this season.



Bill Snyder [2009-2018]


2009
The Wildcats finished the regular season at (6-6), but were bowl INELIGIBLE since two of their victories were over FCS opponents (Massachusetts not FBS until 2012 and Tennessee Tech).  According to rule 18.7.2.2.1 - Football Championship Subdivision Opponent, only one FCS victory can count towards bowl eligibility.  Kansas state played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that the Wildcats SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "league" average SOS.  Kansas State's best game was their victory against #44 ranked Texas A&M by a score of (62-14) and their worst loss was to #87 ranked Louisiana-Lafayette (15-17).  The Wildcats finished the season as the #70 ranked team overall, with the #90 ranked offense and the #46 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2010
The Wildcats finished the regular season at (7-5); and were bowl eligible, and were defeated by #49 ranked Syracuse (34-36) to finish the season (7-6), while playing against an “average” strength of scheduleKansas State's best game was their victory against #25 ranked UCF by a score of (17-13) and their worst loss was to #81 ranked Colorado (36-44).  The Wildcats finished the season as the #69 ranked team overall, with the #44 ranked offense and the #96 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2011
The Wildcats finished the regular season at (10-2); and were bowl eligible, and were defeated by #23 ranked Arkansas (16-29) to finish the season at (10-3), while playing against an “average” strength of scheduleKansas State's best game was their victory against #26 ranked Baylor by a score of (36-35) and their worst loss was to #19 ranked Oklahoma (17-58).  The Wildcats finished the season as the #61 ranked team overall, with the #54 ranked offense and the #58 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2012
The Wildcats finished the regular season at (11-1); and were bowl eligible, and were defeated by #3 ranked Oregon by a score of (17-35) to finish the season (11-2), while playing against an “average” strength of scheduleKansas State's best game was their victory against #21 ranked Oklahoma State by a score of (44-30) and their only regular season loss was to #49 ranked Baylor (24-52).  The Wildcats finished the season as the #17 ranked team overall, with the #23 ranked offense and the #28 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.  This was head coach Snyder's best team in his second stint with the Wildcats.

2013
The Wildcats finished the regular season at (7-5); and were bowl eligible, and defeated #48 ranked Michigan (31-14) to finish the season (8-5), while playing against an “average” strength of scheduleKansas State's best game was their victory against #52 ranked Louisiana-LaFayette by a score of (48-27) and their worst loss was to FCS North Dakota State (21-24).  The Wildcats finished the season as the #28 ranked team overall, with the #34 ranked offense and the #28 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2014
The Wildcats finished the regular season at (9-3); and were bowl eligible, and were defeated by #44 ranked UCLA (35-40) to finish the season overall at (9-4), while playing against an “average” strength of scheduleKansas State's best game was their victory against #33 ranked Oklahoma by a score of (31-30) and their worst loss was to #28 ranked Auburn (14-20).  The Wildcats finished the season as the #37 ranked team overall, with the #32 ranked offense and the #51 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2015
The Wildcats finished the regular season at (6-6); and were bowl eligible, and were defeated by #17 ranked Arkansas by a score of (23-45) to finish the season overall at (6-7), while playing against an “average” strength of scheduleKansas State's best game was their victory against #19 ranked Louisiana Tech by a score of (39-33) and their worst loss was to #90 ranked Texas Tech (44-59).  The Wildcats finished the season as the #113 ranked team overall, with the #103 ranked offense and the #111 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2016
The Wildcats finished the regular season at (8-4); and were bowl eligible, and defeated by #47 ranked Texas A&M (33-28) to finish the season (9-4) overall, while playing against an “average” strength of scheduleKansas State's best game was their victory against #51 ranked Baylor by a score of (42-21) and their worst loss was to #57 ranked Stanford (13-26).  The Wildcats finished the season as the #54 ranked team overall, with the #60 ranked offense and the #45 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2017
The Wildcats finished the regular season at (7-5); and were bowl eligible, and defeated by #97 ranked UCLA (35-17) to finish the season (8-5) overall, while playing against an “average” strength of scheduleKansas State's best game was their victory against #12 ranked Oklahoma State by a score of (45-40) and their worst loss was to #91 ranked Vanderbilt (7-14).  The Wildcats finished the season as the #59 ranked team overall, with the #53 ranked offense and the #68 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2018
The Wildcats finished the regular season at (5-7); and were bowl ineligible, snapping a string of nine straight seasons of post-season play, while playing against an “average” strength of scheduleKansas State's best game was their victory against currently ranked #69 Oklahoma State by a score of (31-12) and their worst loss was to currently ranked #93 Baylor by a score of (34-37).  The Wildcats currently rank as the #95 team overall, with the #117 offense and the #57 defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.


2018 NCAA FBS Head Coaching Changes
Mike Jinks at Bowling Green
DJ Durkin at Maryland
Bobby Petrino and Louisville
Mike MacIntyre and Colorado
Everett Withers and Texas State
Brad Lambert and Charlotte 
Mark Whipple and Massachusetts
John Bonamego and Central Michigan
David Beaty and Kansas
Larry Fedora and North Carolina
Kliff Kingsbury and Texas Tech
Mike Sanford and Western Kentucky
Paul Johnson and Georgia Tech
Scottie Montgomery and East Carolina