North Carolina Fires Head Football Coach Larry Fedora

Earlier today, the University of North Carolina fired head football coach Larry Fedora.  Below is a look at the North Carolina Tar Heels from 2008 to 2018, under the last three of four years under Butch Davis, Everett Withers one season as interim head coach, and the last seven seasons under Larry Fedora.  As you can see in the figure below, the Tar Heels were above average and improving under Withers, and that under Fedora, North Carolina has had four seasons above average and three seasons below average.  After the figure is some more detailed information about the North Carolina football program, along with links for Fedora's original and amended contracts.

Larry Fedora [2012 - 2018] Original Contract; Amended Contract

2012
The Tar Heel's first season with Fedora as the head football coach of North Carolina, they finished the regular season at 8-4 and bowl ineligible, due academic fraud among other alegations.  The Tar Heel's played against an “easier” strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the “league” as a whole, meaning that the Tar Heel's end of season SOS was between one and two standard deviations greater than the “league” average SOS.  North Carolina's best game was their victory against #68 ranked Virginia Tech (48-34) - so all eight wins were against below average teams; and their worst loss was to #97 ranked Wake Forest (27-28).  North Carolina finished the season as the #26 ranked team overall, with the #21 ranked offense and the #43 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2013
The Tar Heel's finished the regular season at (6-6); and were bowl eligible, defeating #25 ranked Cincinnati (39-17) to finish the season (7-6), while playing against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS) meaning that the Tar Heel's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "league" average SOS.  North Carolina's best game was their victory against #40 ranked Middle Tennessee State (40-20) and their worst loss was to #63 ranked Texas Tech (25-27).  The Tar Heel's finished the season as the #41 ranked team overall, with the #51 ranked offense and the #48 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2014
North Carolina again finished the regular season at (6-6) and were bowl eligible, and lost to #85 ranked Rutgers (21-40) to finish overall at (6-7).  The Tar Heel's played against a “tougher” strength of schedule (SOS), which means that the Tar Heel's SOS was between one and two standard deviations below the "league" average SOS.  The Tar Heel's best victory was against #15 ranked Georgia Tech (48-43) and their worst loss was to #64 ranked Notre Dame by a score of (43-50).  North Carolina finished as the #98 ranked team overall, with the #43 ranked offense and the #127 [2nd worst in all of the FBS] ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2015
In what was the best season overall (in terms of wins and losses) with Fedora as the head football coach of North Carolina, the Tar Heels finished the regular season at 11-1 and they played in the ACC conference game against #11 ranked Clemson, losing (37-45).  North Carolina also lost their bowl game to #15 ranked Baylor (36-55) to finish the season overall at (11-3).  The Tar Heel's played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the “league” as a whole.  The Tar Heel's best win was to #35 ranked Pittsburgh (26-19) and their only regular season loss was to #85 ranked South Carolina by a score of (13-17).  North Carolina finished the season as the #29 ranked team overall, with the #5 ranked offense and the #99 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2016
The Tar Heel's finished the regular season at (8-4); and were bowl eligible, where they were defeated by #57 ranked Stanford (23-25) to finish overall at (8-5), while playing against an “average” strength of schedule.  North Carolina's best game was their victory against #13 ranked Miami (FL) (20-13) and their worst loss was to in-state rival #92 ranked Duke (27-28).  The Tar Heel's finished the season as the #26 ranked team overall, with the #35 ranked offense and the #46 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.  While not as good in terms of the wins and losses, but in terms of overall production, this was a better team than in 2015.

2017
North Carolina finished the regular season at (3-9); bowl ineligible, while playing against an “average” strength of schedule.  The Tar Heel's best victory was against #90 ranked Pittsburgh (34-31) and their worst loss was to #95 ranked Virginia by a score of (27-28).  North Carolina finished as the #107 ranked team overall, with the #105 ranked offense and the #93 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2018

In what ended up being head coach Fedora’s last season at North Carolina, the Tar Heel's were (2-9), and for the second consecutive season the Tar Heel's were bowl ineligible.  To date, the Tar Heel's played again against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  The Tar Heels's best win was against currently ranked #68 Pittsburgh (38-35) and their worst loss to currently ranked #108 East Carolina by a score of (19-41).  Currently, North Carolina is the #90 ranked team overall, #85 ranked offense and #86 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2018 NCAA FBS Head Coaching Changes
Mike Jinks at Bowling Green
DJ Durkin at Maryland
Bobby Petrino and Louisville
Mike MacIntyre and Colorado
Everett Withers and Texas State

Brad Lambert and Charlotte 
Mark Whipple and Massachusetts
John Bonamego and Central Michigan
David Beaty and Kansas