Tuesday, November 20, 2018

Colorado Fires Head Football Coach Mike MacIntyre

The University of Colorado has fired head football coach Mike MacIntyre after almost six seasons at the helm of the football program in Boulder Colorado.  This followed two season under coach Jon Embree and five seasons under Dan Hawkins.  As you can see from the figure below, Colorado has had only one above average season since 2008 season, and even though Colorado has improved this season over last season, it was not enough to retain MacIntyre.  For those interested, there is a link to MacIntyre's 2017 amended contract below the figure as well.

After the chart below, is a quick take on the Colorado Buffaloes during MacIntyre's tenure as head coach using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.


Mike MacIntyre [2013 - 2018]

2013
At the end of head coach MacIntyre's first season at the helm of the Buffaloes' football program, Colorado was bowl ineligible with a 4-8 win/loss record, playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Colorado had an SOS plus or minus one standard deviation of the "league" average SOS.  The Buffaloes' best win was over in-state rival #37 ranked Colorado State (41-27).  It was also the only victory over an above average ranked team, and two of their four wins were over FCS teams (Central Arkansas and Charlestown Southern).  Their worst loss was their last regular season game to #78 ranked Utah by a score of (17-24).  Colorado had the #104 ranked team in total production with the #93 ranked offense and the #105 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2014
At the end of head coach MacIntyre's second season at the helm of the Buffaloes' football program, Colorado took a step backward in terms of wins and losses (2-10) and in terms of production even while playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  Of there two victories, the Buffaloes' best win was over #95 ranked Massachusetts (41-38) and their worst loss was to #84 ranked California by a score of (56-59).  Colorado had the #116 ranked team in total production with the #86 ranked offense and the #117 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model. It is interesting to note that MacIntyre had the same number of victories over FBS teams in his first two seasons as Embree (4), but while Embree was fired, MacIntrye was not.

2015
Colorado improved in that it won three games against FBS teams this year as opposed to just two in the previous two seasons, and finished 4-9 during the regular season.  Colorado again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Buffaloes best win was over #73 ranked Colorado State (27-24) and their worst loss was to #125 ranked Hawai'i by a score of (20-28).  Colorado had the #87 ranked team in total production with the #83 ranked offense and the #71 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2016
In what ends up being Colorado's only bowl eligible season, the Buffaloes finished the regular season at 10-2, and played in the PAC-12 Conference championship game - losing to #2 ranked Washington by a score (10-41), and then subsequently losing to #30 ranked Oklahoma State (8-38) in the Valero Alamo Bowl, resulting in Colorado to finish overall at 10-2.  The Buffaloes played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Buffaloes best win was over #37 ranked Washington State (38-24) and their worst loss was to #28 ranked USC by a score of (17-21).  Colorado had the #16 ranked team in total production with the #42 ranked offense and the #12 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2017
Colorado finished the regular season bowl ineligible with a 5-7 regular season win/loss record, while playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Buffaloes best win was again over in-state rival #45 ranked Colorado State (17-3) and their worst loss was to #97 ranked UCLA by a score of (23-27).  Colorado had the #88 ranked team in total production with the #78 ranked offense and the #79 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2018*
Colorado started the season at 5-0, with their best win over #52 currently ranked Arizona State (28-21) and then lost their next six games, all to PAC-12 teams.  Of those six losses, three were to above average teams (Washington, Washington State and Utah) and three were to below average teams (USC, Arizona and currently ranked #127 Oregon State), while playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  Colorado currently has the #75 ranked team in total production with the #75 ranked offense and the #67 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2018 NCAA FBS Head Coaching Changes
Mike Jinks at Bowling Green
DJ Durkin at Maryland
Bobby Petrino and Louisville

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