Tuesday, December 12, 2017

2017 R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

It's the most wonderful time of the year.  Yes, it's Christmas season, but it is also college football bowl season.  This year I plan on providing a preview of each bowl using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided at www.cfbstats.com.  First on the list is the R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl pitting the Troy Trojans from the Sun Belt Conference against the North Texas Mean Green out of Conference USA! 

Prediction
The game will be determined by whether Troy's Top 25 defense can stop North Texas' Top 25 offense.  Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model would give the edge to the Troy Trojans.  Below is a look at each of these two football programs during the 2017 regular season.

North Texas Mean Green
The Mean Green finished the regular season at 9-3 and played in the Conference USA championship game, losing to Florida Atlantic to enter the R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl game at 9-4.  North Texas played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that North Texas' SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "league's" SOS.  The Mean Green's best victory was over #30 ranked Southern Mississippi by a score of  (43-28) and their worst loss was to #63 ranked Iowa by a score of (14-31).  North Texas had the #69 ranked team in total production with the #15 ranked offense and the #112 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

Troy Trojans
The Trojans finished the regular season at 10-2 while playing against an "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Troy's SOS was between one and two  standard deviations greater than the "league's" SOS.  The Trojans best victory was over #17 ranked LSU (24-21) and their worst loss was to #99 ranked South Alabama by a score of (8-19).  Troy had the #26 ranked team in total production with the #54 ranked offense and the #11 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

Monday, December 11, 2017

2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 15

The regular season is now over and below is the Top 25 ranked teams using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided at www.cfbstats.com.  According to the Complex Invasion College Football production model, the University of Alabama has finished as the most productive team in all of the Football Bowl Subdivision. Links to the previous weeks rankings for this season are at the bottom of the page.

Rank Team
1 Alabama
2 Ohio State
3 Washington
4 Penn State
5 Oklahoma
6 UCF
7 Wisconsin
8 Clemson
9 Georgia
10 Louisville
11 Auburn
12 Florida Atlantic
13 Oklahoma State
14 TCU
15 Miami (Florida)
16 Memphis
17 LSU
18 San Diego State
19 USC
20 Appalachian State
21 Toledo
22 Notre Dame
23 Boise State
24 Virginia Tech
25 Mississippi State

Previous 2017 Top 25 Rankings
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #14
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #13

2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #12
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #11
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #10
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #9
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #8
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #7
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #6
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #5
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #4
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #3
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #2

Tuesday, December 5, 2017

David Bailiff is Out at Rice

Rice fired head football coach David Bailiff after eleven seasons as head football coach.  Rice was 57-80 during his tenure at the helm of the Owls program.  I will look at the Rice program from 2008 (Bailiff's second year as Rice's head football coach since the data that I use starts with the 2008 season).

Below is a chart of offense, defense and total production of the Rice Owls football program during Bailiff's tenure as head football coach, along with who would be the lowest ranked team during this time period (in purple) and the average team (sky blue).   Rice has been below average during most of Bailiff's tenure.  All rankings in this blog come from my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  More details about the program under Fisher are after the chart below.


David Bailiff [2007 - 2017]

2008
At the end of the regular season the Owls were 9-3 and bowl eligible defeating #56 ranked Western Michigan (38-14) to finish 10-3 overall.  Rice played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that their SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation from the average SOS of the "league".  The Owls best win was over cross town rival, #27 ranked Houston by a score of (56-42) and their worst game was a loss to #66 ranked Vanderbilt by a score of (21-38).  Rice had the #48 ranked team in total production with the #13 ranked offense and the #116 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  This was Rice's best season under Bailiff.

2009
At the end of the regular season the Owls were 2-10 and bowl ineligible. The Owls again played against a "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Owls best regular season victory was over #104 ranked UTEP (30-29) and their worst loss was again to #90 ranked Vanderbilt by a score of (17-36).  Rice had the #122 ranked team in total production with the #1114 ranked offense and the #122 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2010
The Owls again finished the regular season at 4-8 and were again bowl ineligible.  Rice again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Owls best regular season game was a victory (34-31) over #63 ranked Houston and their worst loss was to #94 ranked UTEP by a score of (24-44).  Overall, the Owls had the #105 ranked team with the #80 ranked offense and the #108 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2011
Rice again finished the regular season overall at 4-8 (bowl ineligible).  Rice played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Owls best game again was their victory over #71 ranked Purdue (24-22) and their worst loss was to #92 ranked Marshall by a score of (20-24).  Rice had the #103 ranked team in total production with the #80 ranked offense and the #108 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2012
At the end of the regular season the Owls were 6-6 (and were bowl eligible) and defeated #81 ranked Air Force (33-14) to finish 7-6 overall.  Rice played against an "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Rice's SOS was between one and two standard deviations below the "league" SOS.  The Owls best win was over #57 ranked SMU (36-14) and their worst loss was to #85 ranked Houston by a score of (14-35).  Rice had the #64 ranked team in total production with the #36 ranked offense and the #92 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model

2013
At the end of the regular season the Owls were 9-3 (and were bowl eligible).  Rice defeated #8 ranked Marshall for the Conference USA championship (41-24) and were defeated by #47 ranked Mississippi State (7-44) to finish 10-4 overall.  Rice played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Owls best victory was against #58 ranked Florida Atlantic (18-14) and their worst loss was to #33 ranked North Texas by a score of (16-28).  Rice had the #50 ranked team in total production with the #54 ranked offense and the #58 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.


2014
The Owls again finished the regular season at 7-5 and were again bowl eligible, defeating to #108 ranked Fresno State by a score of (30-6).  Rice played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Owls best regular season game was a victory over #69 ranked UTEP (31-13) and their worst loss was to #78 ranked Old Dominion by a score of (42-45).  Overall, the Owls had the #66 ranked team with the #60 ranked offense and the #64 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015
Rice finished the regular season overall at 5-7 and were bowl ineligible.  Rice played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Owls best game again was their victory over #63 ranked Army (38-31) and their worst loss was to #115 ranked UTEP (21-24).  Rice had the #109 ranked team in total production with the #92 ranked offense and the #109 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2016
At the end of the regular season the Owls were 3-9 (and were bowl ineligible) while playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Owls best win was over #82 ranked UTEP (44-24) and their worst loss was to #118 ranked Florida Atlantic by a score of (25-42).  Rice had the #124 ranked team in total production with the #98 ranked offense and the #125 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.
2017
At the end of the regular season the Owls were 1-11 (and were bowl ineligible) while playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Owls only victory was over #129 ranked UTEP (31-14) and their worst loss was to #113 ranked Old Dominion by a score of (21-24).  Rice had the #122 ranked team in total production with the #119 ranked offense and the #116 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  

Monday, December 4, 2017

2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Ranking for Week 14

Below is the Top 25 ranked teams using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided at www.cfbstats.com.  According to the Complex Invasion College Football production model, Ohio State University is now on top as the most productive team in all of the Football Bowl Subdivision as of the end of last week. Links to the previous weeks rankings for this season are at the bottom of the page.

Rank Team
1 Ohio State
2 Alabama
3 Washington
4 Penn State
5 Wisconsin
6 Georgia
7 UCF
8 Clemson
9 Louisville
10 TCU
11 Miami (Florida)
12 San Diego State
13 Memphis
14 LSU
15 Toledo
16 Boise State
17 USC
18 Appalachian State
19 Notre Dame
20 Mississippi State
21 Virginia Tech
22 Troy
23 Fresno State
24 Arkansas State
25 South Florida

Previous 2017 Top 25 Rankings
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #13
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #12
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #11
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #10
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #9
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #8
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #7
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #6
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #5
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #4
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #3
2017 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings for Week #2

Sunday, December 3, 2017

Jimbo Fisher Leaves Florida State for Texas A&M

Jimbo Fisher has moved as head football coach from Florida State to Texas A&M.  Fisher finished at 83-23 over the last eight seasons at the helm of the Seminoles program.

Below is a chart of offense, defense and total production of the Florida State University Seminoles football program during Fisher's tenure as head football coach, along with who would be the lowest ranked team during this time period (in purple) and the average team (sky blue).   Florida State has been above average during most of Fisher's tenure.  All rankings in this blog come from my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  More details about the program under Fisher are after the chart below, including a link to his employment contract are below.


Jimbo Fisher [2010-2017]

2010
The Seminoles finished the regular season at 9-4 and were bowl eligible where they defeated #31 ranked South Carolina by a score of (26-17).  Florida State played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that the Seminoles SOS was between one and two standard deviations below the "league" average SOS.  The Seminoles best regular season game was a victory (30-16) over #28 ranked Maryland and their worst loss was to #38 ranked North Carolina by a score of (35-37).  Overall, the Seminoles had the #23 ranked team with the #31 ranked offense and the #24 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2011
Florida State finished the regular season overall at 8-4 (bowl eligible) and defeated by #38 ranked Notre Dame in their post-season bowl game by a score of (18-14) to finish the season at 9-4.  Florida State played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that their SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation from the average SOS of the league.  The Seminoles best game again was their victory over #42 ranked North Carolina State (34-0) and their worst loss was to #74 ranked Virginia (13-14).  Florida State had the #14 ranked team in total production with the #45 ranked offense and the #4 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2012
At the end of the regular season the Seminoles were 10-2 (and were bowl eligible) and won the ACC conference championship by defeating #50 ranked Georgia Tech (21-15) and then won their bowl game over #6 ranked Northern Illinois (31-10) to finish the season at 12-2 overall.  Florida State played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Seminoles best win was over #18 ranked Clemson (49-37) and their worst loss was to #69 ranked North Carolina State by a score of (16-17).  Florida State had the #2 ranked team in total production with the #6 ranked offense and the #10 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  This was an amazing team, only to be bettered in the next season.

2013
At the end of the regular season the Seminoles were 12-0 (and were bowl eligible) and won the ACC conference championship by defeating #63 ranked Duke (45-7) and then won the "national championship" game over #30 ranked Auburn (34-31) to finish the season at 14-0 overall and claim the national championship.  Florida State played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Seminoles best victory was against #10 ranked Clemson (51-14).  Florida State had the #1 ranked team in total production with the #1 ranked offense and the #3 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  This was an amazing team as well.


2014
The Seminoles again finished the regular season at 12-0 and were again bowl eligible, defeating #15 ranked Georgia Tech in the ACC conference championship game by a score of (37-35), but were defeated by #2 ranked Oregon (20-59) to finish at 13-1 overall.  Florida State played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Seminoles best regular season game was a victory (23-17) over #11 ranked Clemson.  Overall, the Seminoles had the #43 ranked team with the #24 ranked offense and the #93 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015
Florida State finished the regular season overall at 10-2 (bowl eligible) and were defeated by #9 ranked Houston in their post-season bowl game by a score of (24-38) to finish the season at 10-3.  Florida State played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Seminoles best game again was their victory over #18 ranked South Florida (34-14) and their worst loss was to #52 ranked Georgia Tech (16-22).  Florida State had the #16 ranked team in total production with the #41 ranked offense and the #10 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2016
At the end of the regular season the Seminoles were 10-2 (and were bowl eligible) defeating #4 ranked Michigan (33-32) while playing against a "much tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that the Seminoles SOS was two or more standard deviations below the "league" average SOS.  The Seminoles best win was over #13 ranked Miami (FL) (20-19) and their worst loss was to #26 ranked North Carolina by a score of (35-37).  Florida State had the #24 ranked team in total production with the #33 ranked offense and the #40 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2017
At the time that Fisher left for Texas A&M, the Seminoles were 5-6 (and at the time were bowl ineligible) while playing against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Seminoles best win was over currently ranked #38 Wake Forest (26-19) and their worst loss was to currently ranked #52 ranked Boston College by a score of (3-35).  Florida State had the #74 ranked team in total production with the #111 ranked offense and the #19 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model

Saturday, December 2, 2017

Dan Mullen Leaves Mississippi State for Florida

Dan Mullen is leaving Mississippi State to take the same position at the University of Florida.  Mullen began the position as head football coach at Mississippi State in 2009 finishing with a win/loss record at 48-29 and 5-4 in the "Egg Bowl" with the University of Mississippi.  So Florida is acquiring a coach who had a more productive offense and less productive defense than over the last three seasons as compared to McElwain.

Below is a chart of offense, defense and total production of the Mississippi State University Bulldogs football program during Mullen's tenure as head football coach, along with who would be the lowest ranked team during this time period (in purple) and the average team (sky blue).   Mississippi State has been above average during most of Mullen's tenure.  All rankings in this blog come from my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  More details about the program under Sumlin are after the chart below, including a link to his employment contract are below.


Dan Mullen [2009 - 2017]


2009
At the end of the regular season the Bulldogs were 5-7 and bowl ineligible. The Bulldogs played against an "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Mississippi States SOS was between one and two standard deviations below the "league's" average SOS.  The Bulldogs best regular season victory was over #28 ranked Middle Tennessee State (27-6) and their worst loss was to #43 ranked LSU by a score of (26-30).  Mississippi State had the #89 ranked team in total production with the #97 ranked offense and the #73 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2010
The Bulldogs again finished the regular season at 8-4 and were again bowl eligible where they defeated #65 ranked Michigan by a score of (52-14) to finish 9-4 overall.  Mississippi State played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that the Bulldogs SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation from the "league's" average SOS.  The Bulldogs best regular season game was a victory (24-12) over #37 ranked Georgia and their worst loss again was to #34 ranked LSU by a score of (7-29).  Overall, the Bulldogs had the #20 ranked team with the #36 ranked offense and the #13 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2011
Mississippi State finished the regular season overall at 6-6 (bowl eligible) and defeated by #69 ranked Wake Forest in their post-season bowl game by a score of (23-17) to finish the season at 7-6.  Mississippi State played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that their SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation from the average SOS of the league.  The Bulldogs best game again was their victory over #39 ranked Louisiana Tech (26-20); their five other victories were against teams ranked #100 or higher.  The Bulldogs worst loss was to #85 ranked Auburn (34-41).  Mississippi State had the #43 ranked team in total production with the #73 ranked offense and the #21 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2012
At the end of the regular season the Bulldogs were 8-4 (and were bowl eligible) and lost to #37 ranked Northwestern (20-34) to finish 8-5 overall.  Mississippi State played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Bulldogs best win was over #60 ranked Troy (30-24) and their worst loss was to #45 ranked Mississippi by a score of (24-41).  Mississippi State had the #44 ranked team in total production with the #51 ranked offense and the #36 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model

2013
At the end of the regular season the Bulldogs were 6-6 (and were bowl eligible) and defeated #50 ranked Rice (44-7) to finish 7-6 overall.  Mississippi State played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Bulldogs best victory was against #17 ranked Bowling Green (21-20) and their worst loss was to #32 ranked Texas A&M by a score of (41-51).  Mississippi State had the #47 ranked team in total production with the #57 ranked offense and the #35 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2014
The Bulldogs finished the regular season at 10-2 and were again bowl eligible, losing to #15 ranked Georgia Tech by a score of (34-49).  Mississippi State played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Bulldogs best regular season game was a victory (17-10) over #22 Arkansas and their worst loss was to #16 ranked Mississippi by a score of (17-31).  Overall, the Bulldogs had the #18 ranked team with the #11 ranked offense and the #82 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015
Mississippi State finished the regular season overall at 8-4 (bowl eligible) and defeated by #44 ranked North Carolina State in their post-season bowl game by a score of (51-28) to finish the season at 9-4.  Mississippi State played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Bulldogs best game again was their victory over #17 ranked Arkansas (51-50) and their worst loss was to #69 ranked Texas A&M (17-30).  Mississippi State had the #32 ranked team in total production with the #37 ranked offense and the #41 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2016
At the end of the regular season the Bulldogs were 5-7 (and were bowl ineligible) but still were invited to a bowl game where they defeated #53 ranked Miami (OH) by a score of (17-16) while playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Bulldogs best win was over #47 ranked Texas A&M (35-28) and their worst loss was to #88 ranked Kentucky by a score of (38-40).  Mississippi State had the #69 ranked team in total production with the #41 ranked offense and the #90 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model
 
2017
At the end of the regular season the Bulldogs were 8-4 (and were bowl eligible) while playing against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Bulldogs best regular season win was over currently ranked #17 LSU (37-7) and their worst regular season loss was to currently ranked #81 in state rival Mississippi in the Egg Bowl by a score of (28-31).  Mississippi State had the #21 ranked team in total production with the #40 ranked offense and the #22 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.