Thursday, June 8, 2017

Bob Stoops Retires as Oklahoma's Head Football Coach

Recently, Oklahoma head football coach Bob Stoops announced that he is retiring from coaching the Oklahoma Sooners football program.  Stoops' has been at the helm of the Sooners since 1999.  Unfortunatley, I do not have that long of an analysis of FBS programs, so I will start with the 2008 season - a year in which Oklahoma played for the national championship - to the end of this last season.

Below is a chart of offense, defense and total production of the Oklahoma Sooners football program during Stoops' tenure as head football coach, along with who would be the lowest ranked team during this time period (in purple) and the average team (sky blue).   As you may notice, Oklahoma has been trending downward since 2008 with an upward trend over the last few years under his tenure. All rankings in this blog come from my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  More details about the program under Stoops are after the chart below, including his last three contracts are linked below.


Bob Stoops (2008 - 2016) [2005 contract extension; 2009 contract extension]

2008
At the end of the regular season the Sooners were 12-1 and bowl eligible playing for the national championship against #1 ranked Florida, in which Oklahoma lost 14-24.  Oklahoma  played against an "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that their strength of schedule was between one to two standard deviations lower than the "league's" average SOS.  The Sooners best win was over #6 ranked TCU by a score of (35-10) and their only regular season loss was to #5 ranked Texas by a score of (35-45).  Oklahoma had the #3 ranked team in total production with the #1 ranked offense and the #80 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2009
At the end of the regular season the Sooners were 7-5 and bowl eligible, and defeated #48 ranked Stanford (31-27) to finish 8-5 overall. The Sooners again played against an "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Sooners best regular season victory was over #42 ranked Ohlahoma State (27-0) and their worst loss was to #20 ranked Miami (FL) by a score of (20-21).  Oklahoma had the #8 ranked team in total production with the #18 ranked offense and the #12 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2010
The Sooners again finished the regular season at 11-2 and were again bowl eligible where they defeated #53 Connecticut by a score of (48-20).  Oklahoma again played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Sooners best regular season game was a victory (47-41) over #10 Oklahoma State and their worst loss was to #27 ranked Texas A&M by a score of (19-33).  Overall, the Sooners had the #12 ranked team with the #11 ranked offense and the #36 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2011
Oklahoma finished the regular season overall at 9-3 (bowl eligible) and defeated by #59 ranked Iowa in their post-season bowl game by a score of (31-14) to finish the season at 10-3.  Oklahoma played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that their SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation from the average SOS of the league.  The Sooners best game again was their victory over #7 ranked Stanford (41-38) and their worst loss was to #100 ranked Texas Tech (38-41).  Oklahoma had the #19 ranked team in total production with the #12 ranked offense and the #41 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2012
At the end of the regular season the Sooners were 10-2 (and were bowl eligible) and lost to #7 Texas A&M (13-41) to finish 10-3 overall.  Oklahoma played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Sooners best win was over #21 ranked Oklahoma State (51-48) and their worst loss was to #17 ranked Kansas State by a score of (19-24).  Oklahoma had the #23 ranked team in total production with the #11 ranked offense and the #65 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model

2013
At the end of the regular season the Sooners were 10-2 (and were bowl eligible) and defeated #7 Alabama (45-31) to finish 11-2 overall.  Oklahoma played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Sooners best victory was against #15 Oklahoma State (33-24) and their worst loss was to #64 ranked Texas by a score of (20-36).  Oklahoma had the #29 ranked team in total production with the #43 ranked offense and the #18 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2014
The Sooners again finished the regular season at 8-4 and were again bowl eligible, losing to #11 ranked Clemson by a score of (6-40).  Oklahoma played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Sooners best regular season game was a victory (48-16) over #9 Louisiana Tech and their worst loss was to #102 ranked Oklahoma State by a score of (35-38).  Overall, the Sooners had the #33 ranked team with the #23 ranked offense and the #70 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015
Oklahoma finished the regular season overall at 11-1 (bowl eligible) and were again defeated by #11 ranked Clemson in their post-season bowl game by a score of (17-37) to finish the season at 11-2.  Oklahoma played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Sooners best game again was their victory over #15 ranked Baylor (44-34) and their worst loss was to #83 ranked Texas (17-24).  Oklahoma had the #2 ranked team in total production with the #7 ranked offense and the #24 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2016
At the end of the regular season the Sooners were 10-2 (and were bowl eligible) defeating #14 ranked Auburn (35-19) while playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Sooners best win was over #30 ranked Oklahoma State (38-20) and their worst loss was to #39 ranked Houston by a score of (23-33).  Oklahoma had the #15 ranked team in total production with the #1 ranked offense and the #86 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

Wednesday, May 10, 2017

NBA Salary Inequality for the 2016-17 Season

Now that the NBA playoffs are well underway, I thought I would come back to looking at salary inequality among NBA players.  As I wrote earlier, NBA salary inequality had been improving over the last few years.  So I again I collected the NBA salary data from ESPN and calculated the Gini coefficient for the league as a whole.  For the most recent season, we see that salary inequality has taken a step backwards, with the Gini coefficient now 0.5519 and is worse than the US Gini coefficient for 2014 of 0.480.

Saturday, May 6, 2017

NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision Attendance Analysis

Today I want to look at NCAA FBS Home Game Attendance over the last eleven years.  I gathered the data from the NCAA's website and have plotted the data below for each season from 2006 to 2016 (last year).  Please note that I am using total home regular season attendance, and since some teams do play different amounts of home games from one year to the next, this might be skewing the data.  But as you can see below, most teams attendance from one season to the next looks fairly similar.  Yet, looks can be deceiving, so below I talk about a simple statistical analysis of home team regular season attendance.




Using a t-test, which is a statistical test of significance among columns (seasons) of data; I find that comparing consecutive seasons, that no sets of consecutive seasons are statistically different from each other.  Yes, teams attendance and league average attendance have increased and recently decreased during this time period, but I cannot rule out random chance for this occurring as well.  Thus, I would conclude that statistically, NCAA FBS attendance is not statistically different in consecutive seasons during this time period.