2017 Birmingham Bowl

Saturday the University of South Florida Bulls from American Athletic Conference play the Texas Tech Red Raiders from the Big 12 Conference in the Birmingham Bowl!  So here is my analysis of the Bahamas Bowl based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  The model uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the University of South Florida Bulls.  Below is a look at each of these two football programs during the 2017 regular season.

South Florida Bulls
The Bulls finished the regular season at 9-2 and played against a "much easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that South Florida's SOS was greater than two standard deviations of the "league's" average SOS.  This season the Bulls' best victory was over #80 ranked Tulane by a score of  (34-28); yes all nine victories were against teams in the bottom half of the Football Bowl Subdivision, with seven against teams currently ranked #100 or more.  USF's worst loss was to #55 ranked Houston by a score of (24-28).  In fact, South Florida only played two teams that were above average and lost to both (UCF was the other and currently ranked #6).  South Florida has the #29 ranked team in total production with the #39 ranked offense and the #30 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

Texas Tech Red Raiders
The Red Raiders finished the regular season at 6-6 while playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Texas Tech's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "league" average SOS.  For this season the Red Raiders' best victory was over #55 ranked Houston by a score of (27-24).  Texas Tech's worst loss was to #72 ranked West Virginia by a score of (35-46).  Texas Tech has the #46 ranked team in total production with the #21 ranked offense and the #83 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2017 Bowl Games
R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Cure Bowl
Las Vegas Bowl
Gildan New Mexico Bowl
Raycom Media Camellia Bowl
Cheribundi Tart Cherry Roca Baton Bowl
DXL Frisco Bowl
Bad Boy Mower Gasparilla Bowl
Bahamas Bowl
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl