Saturday, December 2, 2017

Dan Mullen Leaves Mississippi State for Florida

Dan Mullen is leaving Mississippi State to take the same position at the University of Florida.  Mullen began the position as head football coach at Mississippi State in 2009 finishing with a win/loss record at 48-29 and 5-4 in the "Egg Bowl" with the University of Mississippi.  So Florida is acquiring a coach who had a more productive offense and less productive defense than over the last three seasons as compared to McElwain.

Below is a chart of offense, defense and total production of the Mississippi State University Bulldogs football program during Mullen's tenure as head football coach, along with who would be the lowest ranked team during this time period (in purple) and the average team (sky blue).   Mississippi State has been above average during most of Mullen's tenure.  All rankings in this blog come from my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  More details about the program under Sumlin are after the chart below, including a link to his employment contract are below.


Dan Mullen [2009 - 2017]


2009
At the end of the regular season the Bulldogs were 5-7 and bowl ineligible. The Bulldogs played against an "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Mississippi States SOS was between one and two standard deviations below the "league's" average SOS.  The Bulldogs best regular season victory was over #28 ranked Middle Tennessee State (27-6) and their worst loss was to #43 ranked LSU by a score of (26-30).  Mississippi State had the #89 ranked team in total production with the #97 ranked offense and the #73 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2010
The Bulldogs again finished the regular season at 8-4 and were again bowl eligible where they defeated #65 ranked Michigan by a score of (52-14) to finish 9-4 overall.  Mississippi State played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that the Bulldogs SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation from the "league's" average SOS.  The Bulldogs best regular season game was a victory (24-12) over #37 ranked Georgia and their worst loss again was to #34 ranked LSU by a score of (7-29).  Overall, the Bulldogs had the #20 ranked team with the #36 ranked offense and the #13 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2011
Mississippi State finished the regular season overall at 6-6 (bowl eligible) and defeated by #69 ranked Wake Forest in their post-season bowl game by a score of (23-17) to finish the season at 7-6.  Mississippi State played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that their SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation from the average SOS of the league.  The Bulldogs best game again was their victory over #39 ranked Louisiana Tech (26-20); their five other victories were against teams ranked #100 or higher.  The Bulldogs worst loss was to #85 ranked Auburn (34-41).  Mississippi State had the #43 ranked team in total production with the #73 ranked offense and the #21 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2012
At the end of the regular season the Bulldogs were 8-4 (and were bowl eligible) and lost to #37 ranked Northwestern (20-34) to finish 8-5 overall.  Mississippi State played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Bulldogs best win was over #60 ranked Troy (30-24) and their worst loss was to #45 ranked Mississippi by a score of (24-41).  Mississippi State had the #44 ranked team in total production with the #51 ranked offense and the #36 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model. 

2013
At the end of the regular season the Bulldogs were 6-6 (and were bowl eligible) and defeated #50 ranked Rice (44-7) to finish 7-6 overall.  Mississippi State played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Bulldogs best victory was against #17 ranked Bowling Green (21-20) and their worst loss was to #32 ranked Texas A&M by a score of (41-51).  Mississippi State had the #47 ranked team in total production with the #57 ranked offense and the #35 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2014
The Bulldogs finished the regular season at 10-2 and were again bowl eligible, losing to #15 ranked Georgia Tech by a score of (34-49).  Mississippi State played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Bulldogs best regular season game was a victory (17-10) over #22 Arkansas and their worst loss was to #16 ranked Mississippi by a score of (17-31).  Overall, the Bulldogs had the #18 ranked team with the #11 ranked offense and the #82 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015
Mississippi State finished the regular season overall at 8-4 (bowl eligible) and defeated by #44 ranked North Carolina State in their post-season bowl game by a score of (51-28) to finish the season at 9-4.  Mississippi State played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Bulldogs best game again was their victory over #17 ranked Arkansas (51-50) and their worst loss was to #69 ranked Texas A&M (17-30).  Mississippi State had the #32 ranked team in total production with the #37 ranked offense and the #41 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2016
At the end of the regular season the Bulldogs were 5-7 (and were bowl ineligible) but still were invited to a bowl game where they defeated #53 ranked Miami (OH) by a score of (17-16) while playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Bulldogs best win was over #47 ranked Texas A&M (35-28) and their worst loss was to #88 ranked Kentucky by a score of (38-40).  Mississippi State had the #69 ranked team in total production with the #41 ranked offense and the #90 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model. 
 
2017
At the end of the regular season the Bulldogs were 8-4 (and were bowl eligible) while playing against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Bulldogs best regular season win was over currently ranked #17 LSU (37-7) and their worst regular season loss was to currently ranked #81 in state rival Mississippi in the Egg Bowl by a score of (28-31).  Mississippi State had the #21 ranked team in total production with the #40 ranked offense and the #22 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  

Posted by at 3:18 PM
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