Tuesday, December 12, 2017

2017 R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

It's the most wonderful time of the year.  Yes, it's Christmas season, but it is also college football bowl season.  This year I plan on providing a preview of each bowl using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided at www.cfbstats.com.  First on the list is the R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl pitting the Troy Trojans from the Sun Belt Conference against the North Texas Mean Green out of Conference USA! 

Prediction
The game will be determined by whether Troy's Top 25 defense can stop North Texas' Top 25 offense.  Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model would give the edge to the Troy Trojans.  Below is a look at each of these two football programs during the 2017 regular season.

North Texas Mean Green
The Mean Green finished the regular season at 9-3 and played in the Conference USA championship game, losing to Florida Atlantic to enter the R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl game at 9-4.  North Texas played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that North Texas' SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "league's" SOS.  The Mean Green's best victory was over #30 ranked Southern Mississippi by a score of  (43-28) and their worst loss was to #63 ranked Iowa by a score of (14-31).  North Texas had the #69 ranked team in total production with the #15 ranked offense and the #112 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

Troy Trojans
The Trojans finished the regular season at 10-2 while playing against an "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Troy's SOS was between one and two  standard deviations greater than the "league's" SOS.  The Trojans best victory was over #17 ranked LSU (24-21) and their worst loss was to #99 ranked South Alabama by a score of (8-19).  Troy had the #26 ranked team in total production with the #54 ranked offense and the #11 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.