Tuesday, December 5, 2017

David Bailiff is Out at Rice

Rice fired head football coach David Bailiff after eleven seasons as head football coach.  Rice was 57-80 during his tenure at the helm of the Owls program.  I will look at the Rice program from 2008 (Bailiff's second year as Rice's head football coach since the data that I use starts with the 2008 season).

Below is a chart of offense, defense and total production of the Rice Owls football program during Bailiff's tenure as head football coach, along with who would be the lowest ranked team during this time period (in purple) and the average team (sky blue).   Rice has been below average during most of Bailiff's tenure.  All rankings in this blog come from my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  More details about the program under Bailiff are after the chart below.


David Bailiff [2007 - 2017]

2008
At the end of the regular season the Owls were 9-3 and bowl eligible defeating #56 ranked Western Michigan (38-14) to finish 10-3 overall.  Rice played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that their SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation from the average SOS of the "league".  The Owls best win was over cross town rival, #27 ranked Houston by a score of (56-42) and their worst game was a loss to #66 ranked Vanderbilt by a score of (21-38).  Rice had the #48 ranked team in total production with the #13 ranked offense and the #116 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  This was Rice's best season under Bailiff.

2009
At the end of the regular season the Owls were 2-10 and bowl ineligible. The Owls again played against a "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Owls best regular season victory was over #104 ranked UTEP (30-29) and their worst loss was again to #90 ranked Vanderbilt by a score of (17-36).  Rice had the #122 ranked team in total production with the #1114 ranked offense and the #122 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2010
The Owls again finished the regular season at 4-8 and were again bowl ineligible.  Rice again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Owls best regular season game was a victory (34-31) over #63 ranked Houston and their worst loss was to #94 ranked UTEP by a score of (24-44).  Overall, the Owls had the #105 ranked team with the #80 ranked offense and the #108 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2011
Rice again finished the regular season overall at 4-8 (bowl ineligible).  Rice played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Owls best game again was their victory over #71 ranked Purdue (24-22) and their worst loss was to #92 ranked Marshall by a score of (20-24).  Rice had the #103 ranked team in total production with the #80 ranked offense and the #108 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2012
At the end of the regular season the Owls were 6-6 (and were bowl eligible) and defeated #81 ranked Air Force (33-14) to finish 7-6 overall.  Rice played against an "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Rice's SOS was between one and two standard deviations below the "league" SOS.  The Owls best win was over #57 ranked SMU (36-14) and their worst loss was to #85 ranked Houston by a score of (14-35).  Rice had the #64 ranked team in total production with the #36 ranked offense and the #92 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model. 

2013
At the end of the regular season the Owls were 9-3 (and were bowl eligible).  Rice defeated #8 ranked Marshall for the Conference USA championship (41-24) and were defeated by #47 ranked Mississippi State (7-44) to finish 10-4 overall.  Rice played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Owls best victory was against #58 ranked Florida Atlantic (18-14) and their worst loss was to #33 ranked North Texas by a score of (16-28).  Rice had the #50 ranked team in total production with the #54 ranked offense and the #58 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.


2014
The Owls again finished the regular season at 7-5 and were again bowl eligible, defeating to #108 ranked Fresno State by a score of (30-6).  Rice played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Owls best regular season game was a victory over #69 ranked UTEP (31-13) and their worst loss was to #78 ranked Old Dominion by a score of (42-45).  Overall, the Owls had the #66 ranked team with the #60 ranked offense and the #64 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015
Rice finished the regular season overall at 5-7 and were bowl ineligible.  Rice played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Owls best game again was their victory over #63 ranked Army (38-31) and their worst loss was to #115 ranked UTEP (21-24).  Rice had the #109 ranked team in total production with the #92 ranked offense and the #109 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2016
At the end of the regular season the Owls were 3-9 (and were bowl ineligible) while playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Owls best win was over #82 ranked UTEP (44-24) and their worst loss was to #118 ranked Florida Atlantic by a score of (25-42).  Rice had the #124 ranked team in total production with the #98 ranked offense and the #125 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.
2017
At the end of the regular season the Owls were 1-11 (and were bowl ineligible) while playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Owls only victory was over #129 ranked UTEP (31-14) and their worst loss was to #113 ranked Old Dominion by a score of (21-24).  Rice had the #122 ranked team in total production with the #119 ranked offense and the #116 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  

Posted by at 11:22 AM
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