Wednesday, December 27, 2017

2017 Valero Alamo Bowl

On Thursday the Valero Alamo Bowl pits the Stanford Cardinal from the Pacific 12 Conference against the Texas Christian Horned Frogs from the Big 12 Conference.  So here is my analysis of the Valero Alamo Bowl based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  The model uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives a tiny edge to the Texas Christian Horned Frogs.  Below is a look at each of these two football programs during the 2017 regular season.

Stanford Cardinal
The Cardinal finished the regular season at 9-4, while playing against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Stanford's SOS was between one and two standard deviations below the "league's" average SOS.  For this season the Cardinal's best victory was over #3 ranked Washington by a score of (30-22), and their worst loss was to #39 ranked Washington State by a score of (21-24).  Stanford has the #48 ranked team in total production with the #42 ranked offense and the #60 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

Texas Christian Horned Frogs
The Horned Frogs finished the regular season at 10-3 while also playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Texas Christian's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "league's" average SOS .  This season the Horned Frogs' best victory was over #13 ranked Oklahoma State by a score of (44-31).  The Horned Frogs' worst loss was to #35 ranked Iowa State by a score of (7-14).  Texas Christian has the #14 ranked team in total production with the #19 ranked offense and the #24 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2017 Bowl Games
R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Cure Bowl
Las Vegas Bowl
Gildan New Mexico Bowl
Raycom Media Camellia Bowl
Cheribundi Tart Cherry Roca Baton Bowl
DXL Frisco Bowl
Bad Boy Mower Gasparilla Bowl
Bahamas Bowl
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Birmingham Bowl
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl 
Dollar General Bowl
Hawaii Bowl
Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl 
Quick Lane Bowl
Cactus Bowl
Walk On's Independence Bowl
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Foster Farms Bowl
Academy Sports & Outdoor Texas Bowl 
Military Bowl 
Camping World Bowl
SDCCU Holiday Bowl