Reddit r/CFB is reporting that Florida State may not be bowl eligible since the non-FBS school they defeated (only one counts towards bowl eligiblity) may not qualify to count as one of the six victories needed for FBS bowl qualification due to NCAA rules. Delaware State did not award at least 90% of the FCS scholarship (which is allowed by an FCS school), but is required by NCAA rules for an FCS school to be considered for bowl qualification by an FBS school.
If this is true, then one of the three schools not invited to play in a post season game should be invited to play in the Walk On's Independence Bowl on Wednesday December 27th. (Admittedly, even if this is verified by the NCAA, it will unlikely happen). But for sake of argument, who is the next best team in terms of on-field productivity? The three teams are: Buffalo, UTSA and Western Michigan.
Based on my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model, I would say that UTSA is the "best" team in terms of overall productivity.
Here is my analysis of each team up to the end of the regular season.
Buffalo Bulls
The Bulls finished the regular season at 6-6 and played against
an "average" strength
of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning
that Buffalo's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the
"league's" average SOS. This season the Bulls' best victory was
over
#12 ranked Florida Atlantic by a score of (34-31) and their worst loss was to #92 ranked Akron by a
score of
(20-21). Buffalo has the #58 ranked
team in total production with the #66
ranked offense and the #53 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.
UTSA Roadrunners
The Roadrunners finished the regular season at 6-5 and played against
an "easier" strength
of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning
that UTSA's SOS was between one and two standard deviations greater than the
"league's" average SOS. This season the Roadrunners' best victory was
over
#56 ranked Marshall by a score of (9-7) and their worst loss was to #89 ranked Florida International by a
score of
(7-14). UTSA has the #34 ranked
team in total production with the #91
ranked offense and the #5 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.
Western Michigan Broncos
The Broncos finished the regular season at 6-6 and played against
an "average" strength
of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning
that Western Michigan's SOS was between one and two standard deviations greater than the
"league's" average SOS. This season the Broncos' best victory was
over
#58 ranked Buffalo by a score of (71-68) and their worst loss was to #92 ranked Akron by a
score of
(20-21). Western Michigan has the #53 ranked
team in total production with the #37
ranked offense and the #70 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.