Thursday, December 21, 2017

2017 Dollar General Bowl

On Saturday the Dollar General Bowl has the Appalachian State Mountaineers from the Sun Belt Conference playing the Toledo Rockets from the Mid American Conference!  So here is my analysis of the Dollar General Bowl based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  The model uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives a slight edge to the Appalachian State Mountaineers.  Below is a look at each of these two football programs during the 2017 regular season.

Appalachian State Mountaineers
The Mountaineers finished the regular season at 8-4 and played against an "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Appalachian State's SOS was between one and two standard deviations greater than the "league's" average SOS.  This season the Mountaineers' best victory was over #61 ranked New Mexico State by a score of  (45-31) and their worst loss was to #109 ranked Louisiana-Monroe by a score of (45-52).  Appalachian State has the #20 ranked team in total production with the #36 ranked offense and the #23 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

Toledo Rockets
The Rockets finished the regular season at 10-2, then defeated #92 ranked Akron Zips in the Mid American Conference championship game to currently be 11-2 overall, while playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Toledo's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "league's" average SOS.  For this season the Rockets' best victory was over #36 ranked Northern Illinois by a score of (27-17).  Toledo's worst loss was to #33 ranked Ohio by a score of (10-38).  Toledo has the #21 ranked team in total production with the #8 ranked offense and the #85 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2017 Bowl Games
R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Cure Bowl
Las Vegas Bowl
Gildan New Mexico Bowl
Raycom Media Camellia Bowl
Cheribundi Tart Cherry Roca Baton Bowl
DXL Frisco Bowl
Bad Boy Mower Gasparilla Bowl
Bahamas Bowl
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Birmingham Bowl
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl