Thursday, December 14, 2017

2017 Las Vegas Bowl

On Saturday, December 16 the Las Vegas Bowl pits the Mountain West Conference champion Boise State Broncos against the Oregon Ducks out of PAC 12.  The analysis below is based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  The model uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model would give the edge to the Boise State Broncos.  Below is a look at each of these two football programs during the 2017 regular season.

Boise State Broncos
The Broncos finished the regular season at 9-3 and played in the Mountain West Conference championship game where they defeated #28 ranked Fresno State (17-14) to be currently 10-3 as they enter the Las Vegas Bowl.  Boise State played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Boise State's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "league's" average SOS.  This season the Bronco's best victory was over #18 ranked San Diego State by a score of  (31-14) and Boise State's worst loss was to #82 ranked Virginia by a score of (23-42).  Boise State has the #23 ranked team in total production with the #32 ranked offense and the #34 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

Oregon Ducks
The Ducks finished the regular season at 7-5 while also playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Oregon's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "league's" average SOS.  For this season the Ducks best victory was over #41 ranked Utah by a score of (41-20).  Oregon's worst loss was to #98 ranked UCLA by a score of (14-31).  Oregon has the #31 ranked team in total production with the #25 ranked offense and the #55 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2017 Bowl Games
R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Cure Bowl

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