Saturday, December 23, 2017

2017 Cactus Bowl

On Tuesday the Cactus Bowl pits the Kansas State Wildcats from the Big 12 Conference against the UCLA Bruins from the Pacific 12 Conference.  So here is my analysis of the Cactus Bowl based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  The model uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Kansas State Wildcats.  Below is a look at each of these two football programs during the 2017 regular season.

Kansas State Wildcats
The Wildcats finished the regular season at 7-5, playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Kansas State's SOS was between plus or minus one standard deviation of the "league's" average SOS.  This season the Wildcats' best victory was over #13 ranked Oklahoma State by a score of  (45-40) and their worst loss was to #94 ranked Vanderbilt by a score of (7-14).  Kansas State has the #68 ranked team in total production with the #58 ranked offense and the #69 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

UCLA Bruins
The Bruins finished the regular season at 6-6, while playing against a "much tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that UCLA's SOS was more than two standard deviations lower than the "league" average SOS.  For this season the Bruins' best victory was over #31 ranked Oregon by a score of (31-14).  The Bruins' worst loss was to #49 ranked Arizona by a score of (30-47).  UCLA has the #98 ranked team in total production with the #43 ranked offense and the #118 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2017 Bowl Games
R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Cure Bowl
Las Vegas Bowl
Gildan New Mexico Bowl
Raycom Media Camellia Bowl
Cheribundi Tart Cherry Roca Baton Bowl
DXL Frisco Bowl
Bad Boy Mower Gasparilla Bowl
Bahamas Bowl
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Birmingham Bowl
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl 
Dollar General Bowl
Hawaii Bowl
Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl 
Quick Lane Bowl