On Sunday the Hawai'i Bowl pits the Fresno State Bulldogs from the Mountain West Conference against the Houston Cougars from the American Athletic Conference. So here is my
analysis of the Hawai'i Bowl based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model. The model uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.
Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Fresno State Bulldogs.
(Full disclosure: Fresno State's Offensive coordinator Kalen DeBoer was a student in a class I taught).
Below is a look at each of these two football programs during the 2017 regular season.
Fresno State Bulldogs
The Bulldogs finished the regular season at 8-4, and were defeated in the Mountain West Conference championship game by #23 ranked Boise State by a score of (14-17). Fresno State played against
an "average" strength
of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning
that the Bulldog's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the
"league's" average SOS. This season the Bulldog' best victory was
over
#23 ranked Boise State (the week before the Mountain West Conference championship game) by a score of (28-17) and their worst loss was to #83 ranked UNLV by a
score of
(16-26). Fresno State has the #28 ranked
team in total production with the #50
ranked offense and the #16 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.
Houston Cougars
The Cougars finished the regular season at 7-4, while playing against
an "average" strength
of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS,. For this season the Cougars' best victory was
over #29
ranked South Florida by a score of (28-24). The Cougar's worst loss was
to #113
ranked Tulsa by a score of
(17-45). Houston has the #55 ranked
team in total production with the #73
ranked offense and the #44 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.
2017 Bowl Games
R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Cure Bowl
Las Vegas Bowl
Gildan New Mexico Bowl
Raycom Media Camellia Bowl
Cheribundi Tart Cherry Roca Baton Bowl
DXL Frisco Bowl
Bad Boy Mower Gasparilla Bowl
Bahamas Bowl
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Birmingham Bowl
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Dollar General Bowl
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