Friday, December 29, 2017

2017 AutoZone Liberty Bowl

On Saturday the AutoZone Liberty Bowl pits the Iowa State Cyclones from the Big 12 Conference against the Memphis Tigers from the American Athletic Conference.  So here is my analysis of the AutoZone Liberty Bowl based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  The model uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives the edge to the Memphis Tigers.  Below is a look at each of these two football programs during the 2017 regular season.

Iowa State Cyclones
The Cyclones finished the regular season at 7-5, while playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Iowa State's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "league's" average SOS.  For this season the Cyclones' best victory was over #5 ranked Oklahoma by a score of (38-31).  The Cyclones' worst loss was to #72 ranked West Virginia by a score of (16-20).  Iowa State has the #35 ranked team in total production with the #41 ranked offense and the #49 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

Memphis Tigers
The Tigers finished the regular season at 10-2, while playing against an "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Memphis' SOS was between one and two standard deviations higher than the "league's" average SOS.  This season the Tigers' best victory was over #55 ranked Houston by a score of  (42-38).  Memphis' worst loss was to #6 ranked UCF (twice).  Memphis has the #16 ranked team in total production with the #4 ranked offense and the #102 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2017 Bowl Games
R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Cure Bowl
Las Vegas Bowl
Gildan New Mexico Bowl
Raycom Media Camellia Bowl
Cheribundi Tart Cherry Roca Baton Bowl
DXL Frisco Bowl
Bad Boy Mower Gasparilla Bowl
Bahamas Bowl
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Birmingham Bowl
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl 
Dollar General Bowl
Hawaii Bowl
Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl 
Quick Lane Bowl
Cactus Bowl
Walk On's Independence Bowl
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Foster Farms Bowl
Academy Sports & Outdoor Texas Bowl 
Military Bowl 
Camping World Bowl
SDCCU Holiday Bowl 
Valero Alamo Bowl
Belk Bowl
Hyundai Sun Bowl
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl 
NOVA Home Loans Arizona Bowl 
Goodyear Cotton Bowl 
Taxslayer Bowl