Wednesday, December 27, 2017

2017 Military Bowl

On Thursday the Military Bowl pits the Navy Midshipmen from the American Athletic Conference against the Virginia Cavaliers from the Atlantic Coast Conference.  So here is my analysis of the Military Bowl based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  The model uses data provided at www.cfbstats.com.

Prediction
Given the overall productivity of the two programs, the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model gives a tiny edge to the Navy Midshipmen, but statistically this game is a toss up.  Below is a look at each of these two football programs during the 2017 regular season.

Navy Midshipmen
The Midshipmen finished the regular season at 6-6, while playing against  an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Navy's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "league's" average SOS.  For this season the Midshipmen's best victory was over #12 ranked Florida Atlantic by a score of (42-19), and their worst loss was to #88 ranked Temple by a score of (26-34).  Navy has the #81 ranked team in total production with the #79 ranked offense and the #72 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

Virginia Cavaliers
The Cavaliers finished the regular season at 6-6 while played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that Virginia's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "league's" average SOS.  This season the Cavaliers' best victory was over #23 ranked Boise State by a score of  (42-23).  Virginia's worst loss was to #87 ranked Pittsburgh by a score of (14-31).  Virginia has the #82 ranked team in total production with the #96 ranked offense and the #59 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2017 Bowl Games
R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Cure Bowl
Las Vegas Bowl
Gildan New Mexico Bowl
Raycom Media Camellia Bowl
Cheribundi Tart Cherry Roca Baton Bowl
DXL Frisco Bowl
Bad Boy Mower Gasparilla Bowl
Bahamas Bowl
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Birmingham Bowl
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl 
Dollar General Bowl
Hawaii Bowl
Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl 
Quick Lane Bowl
Cactus Bowl
Walk On's Independence Bowl
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Foster Farms Bowl
Academy Sports & Outdoor Texas Bowl