Friday, October 31, 2014

2014 NCAA Football Top 25 for Week 9

For some reason, I have been unable to post this week.  Most likely human error on my part.  Anyway this seems to work, so here is the top 25 at the end of last weekend using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data from cfbstats.com.
Again, we have a new number one team:  Marshall Thundering Herd!

Rank Team
1 Marshall
2 Michigan State
3 Baylor
4 TCU
5 Alabama
6 Mississippi
7 Georgia Southern
8 Oregon
9 Nebraska
10 Georgia
11 Auburn
12 Wisconsin
13 East Carolina
14 Ohio State
15 LSU
16 Mississippi State
17 Louisville
18 Duke
19 Stanford
20 Miami (Florida)
21 Florida State
22 Clemson
23 Oklahoma
24 Arkansas
25 Memphis

Previous 2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 8
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 7
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 6
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 5
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 4
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 3
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 2 

Thursday, October 30, 2014

BYU AD on CFB Scheduling

Last Fall semester I taught a First Year Freshman Seminar on College Football and one of the topics we talked about was the economic reason for athletic conferences (and the incentives for schools to move between conferences).  One of the reasons I discussed was that conferences reduce transactions costs of scheduling.  Here is a really good article about BYU (independent) on football scheduling.

Monday, October 20, 2014

2014 NCAA Football Top 25 for Week 8

We are now halfway through the 2014 NCAA football season.  Here is the latest top 25 based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data from cfbstats.com.  Notice that we have a new number one team in the Michigan State Spartans.

Rank Team
1 Michigan State
2 East Carolina
3 Nebraska
4 Marshall
5 Baylor
6 Wisconsin
7 USC
8 Mississippi
9 Houston
10 Minnesota
11 Alabama
12 Maryland
13 Georgia
14 Memphis
15 Penn State
16 Iowa
17 Utah State
18 TCU
19 UCLA
20 Oregon
21 Northern Illinois
22 Georgia Southern
23 UAB
24 Auburn
25 LSU

Previous 2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 7
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 6
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 5
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 4
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 3
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 2 

Monday, October 13, 2014

2014 NCAA Football Top 25 for Week 7

Here is the latest Top 25 based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data from cfbstats.com.  Of the top four teams, Auburn has dropped from #4 to #7 and Georgia Southern has moved into the top 4.  Yes, that is a shock to me as well.

Notice that the SEC has 7 teams in the top 25, and that Florida State is back in the top 25 at #24.

Rank Team
1 Baylor
2 Michigan State
3 Marshall
4 Georgia Southern
5 Georgia
6 Mississippi
7 Auburn
8 East Carolina
9 Louisville
10 Alabama
11 Duke
12 Mississippi State
13 Oklahoma
14 Oregon
15 Nebraska
16 Wisconsin
17 Kentucky
18 Texas A&M
19 TCU
20 Miami (Florida)
21 LSU
22 Stanford
23 Clemson
24 Florida State
25 Notre Dame

Previous 2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 6
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 5
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 4
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 3
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 2 

Friday, October 10, 2014

MLB Pay and Performance 1988 to 2014

With the MLB regular season in the books and the playoffs underway, I thought that I would get back to looking at MLB pay and performance.  As we state in our book, The Wages of Wins, while there is a positive and statistically significant relationship between relative payroll and team performance (as measured by winning percent); the variation that is common between the two variables is not a lot.  So what I will do here is measure both the relationship and the amount of common variation (using r-squared) for the MLB regular season over a few different time periods.

If you are interested in performing your own payroll and performance analysis, here is a step-by-step guide to analyzing payroll and performance.

First, the two variables are MLB regular season winning percent, which I grabbed from ESPN and MLB team payrolls which I got from USA Today's MLB team payroll page. 

Second, as I have explained previously, I am using relative payroll because average payrolls have been increasing over time and average winning percent is constant over time.  Hence if I use total payroll instead of relative payroll, I will find a weaker relationship since MLB total payrolls are increasing and MLB winning percent is constant.  If I use relative payroll (a team's total payroll divided by that seasons average payroll) then I will be comparing two variables that are stationary to each other and get better results.

How much in common is the variation in relative payroll and the variation in winning percent by season?

1995-2014:  18.1%
2000-2014:  14.8%
2005-2014:  13.7%
2010-2014:    8.4%
2014:  relative payroll is statistically insignificant.

Over different time periods we see that the explanatory power of relative payroll on team winning percent has been declining since 1995.

Monday, October 6, 2014

2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 6

This past weekend has had more movement than an bowl of jello in an earthquake.  We have seen teams at the top (including the model's top team) lose.  Again this ranking is based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model Top 25 ranking using data from cfbstats.com.

After all the changes the model has the following four teams in the college football playoff:  1.  Baylor; 2. Michigan State; 3. Marshall; and 4. Auburn.

Surprises:
1.  Florida State is no where to be found in the top 25 and some teams
2.  Marshall is a playoff team and Georgia Southern is in the top 10.
3.  Mississippi State is ranked below Texas A&M, and
4.  The B1G has six teams in the top 25.

Rank Team
1 Baylor
2 Michigan State
3 Marshall
4 Auburn
5 Louisville
6 Mississippi
7 Georgia
8 Georgia Southern
9 East Carolina
10 Nebraska
11 TCU
12 Texas A&M
13 Oklahoma
14 Mississippi State
15 Alabama
16 Duke
17 Oregon
18 LSU
19 Clemson
20 Missouri
21 Wisconsin
22 Notre Dame
23 Minnesota
24 Ohio State
25 Penn State

Previous 2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 Rankings
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 5
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 4
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 3
2014 NCAA FBS Top 25 for Week 2