At the end of last month, Mack Brown was fired as head football coach at North Carolina, but was given the opportunity to coach in their post-season bowl game. Brown was 45-33 in six season at the helm of the Tar Heels. Here is a look at the North Carolina Tar Heels football program since 2008 (the first year that in which I have data for the model). This time period only covers the last three seasons of head football coach Butch Davis (2008-2010), Everette Withers (2011), Larry Fedora (2012-2018) and Mack Brown (2019-2024). After the figure below is a more detailed look at the North Carolina Tar Heels football program during head coach Brown's tenure based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com. (The vertical school color bars represent seasons where head coaches changed).
Mack Brown [2019-2024]
2019
The Tar Heels finished the regular season at 6-6 and played #71 ranked Temple in their post-season bowl where they won by a score of (55-13) to finish at 7-6 overall. North Carolina played against an “average” strength
of schedule (SOS); meaning that North Carolina's SOS was plus or
minus one standard deviation of the "leagues" average SOS. North Carolina's best win
was against #33 ranked Miami (FL) by a
score of (28-25) and their worst loss was to #84 ranked Virginia
by a
score of (31-38). North Carolina was the #34 ranked team overall, with the #38 ranked
offense and the #37 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
2020
The Tar Heels finished the COVID shortened regular season at 8-3, and
played their post-season bowl game against #11 ranked Texas A&M where they lost by a
score of (27-41) to finish at 8-4 overall. North Carolina played against an “average” strength
of schedule (SOS). North Carolina's
best win
was against #23 ranked Miami (FL) by a
score of (62-26) and their worst loss was to #113 ranked Florida State by a
score of (28-31). North Carolina was the #9 ranked team overall, with the #3 ranked
offense and the #113 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
North Carolina finished the regular season at 6-6,while playing against an “average” strength
of schedule (SOS). North Carolina was defeated by #92 ranked South Carolina in the post-season by a score of
(21-38) to finish the season at 6-7 overall. The Tar Heels' best win
was against #27 ranked Wake Forest by a
score of (58-55) and their worst loss was to #104 ranked Georgia Tech by a
score of (22-45). North Carolina was the #60 ranked team overall, with the #27 ranked
offense and the #99 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
2022 ACC Runner-Up
The Tar Heels finished the regular season at 9-3, and then lost in the ACC Championship game to #40 ranked Clemson by a score of (10-39) and then lost their post-season bowl game to #11 ranked Oregon by a score of (27-28) to finish the season at 9-5 overall. The Tar Heels played against an “average” strength
of schedule (SOS). North Carolina's
best win
was against #32 ranked Appalachian State by a
score of (63-61) and their worst loss was to #98 ranked Georgia Tech by a
score of (17-21). North Carolina was the #79 ranked team overall, with the #22 ranked
offense and the #125 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
2023
The Tar Heels finished the regular season at 8-4, while playing against an “average” strength
of schedule (SOS). They were defeated by #53 ranked West Virginia by a
score of (10-30) in their post-season bowl game to finish the season
overall at 8-5. North Carolina's
best win
was against #28 ranked Miami (FL) by a
score of (41-31) and their worst loss was to #109 ranked Virginia by a
score of (27-31). North Carolina was the #29 ranked team overall, with the #13 ranked
offense and the #84 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
2024
Head
coach Brown was fired at the end of the regular season where the Tar Heels were 7-5, but was allowed to coach the team in their post-season bowl game, where they were defeated by currently #40 ranked Connecticut by a score of (14-27) to finish at 7-6 overall. The Tar Heels played
against an “average”
strength
of schedule (SOS). At the time of Brown's firing North Carolina's best win
was against #23 ranked Minnesota (19-17) and their
worst loss was again to #89 ranked North Carolina State by a score of (30-35). North Carolina currently is the #80 ranked team overall, with the #67 ranked
offense and the #87 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
2024 FBS Head Coach Changes