Sunday, December 1, 2024

Gus Malzahn Resigns from UCF

Yesterday it was announced that Gus Malzahn resigned as head football coach at UCF.  Malzahn was 27-24 in four season at the helm of the Knights.  Here is a look at the UCF Knights football program since 2008 (the first year that in which I have data for the model).  This time period only covers the last nine seasons of head football coach George O'Leary (2004-2015), Scott Frost (2016-2017), Josh Heupel (2018-2020) and Gus Malzahn (2021-2024*).  After the figure below is a more detailed look at the UCF Knights football program during head coach Malzahn's tenure based on the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model using data provided by www.cfbstats.com.  (The vertical school color bars represent seasons where head coaches changed).

Gus Malzahn [2021-2024]

2021
UCF finished the regular season at 8-4, and were bowl eligible, where they defeated the #42 ranked Florida Gators by a score of (29-17).  The Knights played against an “easier” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that UCF's SOS was between one and two standard deviations higher than the "leagues" average SOS.  UCF's best regular season win was over #52 ranked Boise State by a score of (36-31) and their worst  regular season loss was to #102 ranked Navy (30-34).  UCF was the #39 ranked team overall, with the #28 ranked offense and the #63 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2022 AAC Conference Runner-Up
UCF finished the regular season at 9-3, and were played in the AAC Championship game where they lost to #13 ranked Tulane by a score of (28-45).  Then the Knights played #36 ranked Duke in their post-season bowl game and lost by a score (13-30) to finish 9-5 overall. The Knights played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that UCF's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "leagues" average SOS.  UCF's best regular season win was over #13 ranked Tulane by a score of (38-31) and their worst loss was to #86 ranked Navy (14-17).  UCF was the #38 ranked team overall, with the #21 ranked offense and the #84 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2023
Tulsa finished the regular season at 6-6, and were bowl eligible, where they were defeated by #63 ranked Georgia Tech by a score of (17-30) to finish the regular season at 6-7.  The Knights played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS), meaning that UCF's SOS was plus or minus one standard deviation of the "leagues" average SOS.  UCF's best regular season win was over #33 ranked Boise State by a score of (18-16) and their worst regular season loss was to #121 ranked Baylor (35-36).  UCF was the #40 ranked team overall, with the #30 ranked offense and the #67 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.
 
2024*
UCF finished the 2024 season at 4-8. UCF has played against an “average” strength of schedule (SOS).  UCF's best victory was against currently #38 ranked Sam Houston State by a score of (45-14) and their current worst loss was to #104 ranked West Virginia by a score of (21-31).  UCF is currently the #55 ranked team overall, with the #48 ranked offense and the #68 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model from the data provided from www.cfbstats.com.

2024 FBS Head Coach Changes