Les Miles Dismissed as Head Football Coach at LSU

LSU has dismissed head football coach Les Miles after four games into the 2016 NCAA FBS football season.  Coach Miles has served as head football coach at LSU since the 2005 season going 114-34. So let's take a look at the LSU program during Les Miles tenure.  Unfortunately, I only have complete data starting with the 2008 football season (yes, the year after LSU won the national championship).  Miles was originally hired by LSU on January 21, 2005 and paid a base salary of $3,600,000 per year, with additional payments of $600,000 for media appearances and $350,000 from the Tiger Athletic Foundation, plus bonuses detailed in the first contract. So here is a look at the Louisiana State University football program since 2008.

Below is a chart of offense, defense and total production of the LSU football program since 2008 along with who would be the lowest ranked team during this time period (in purple) and the average team (sky blue).   As you may notice, LSU has been above average in terms of total production and defense for each season except for this partial 2016 season, and for offense except the 2009 season. All rankings in this blog come from my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  More details about the program are after the chart below.

 

2008
After finishing the 2007 season as national champions, LSU rewarded head football coach Les Miles with a contract amendment with regard to termination.  The following season LSU finished at 8-5.  The Tigers played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was within one  standard deviations from the "league" average SOS.  LSU's best game was a victory over #17 ranked Troy and their worst loss was to #86 ranked Arkansas.  Overall, the Tigers had the #38 most productive college football team with the #38 ranked offense and the #52 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2009
The Tigers finished the regular season at 9-4. LSU now played a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS, meaning that LSU's SOS was between one and two standard deviations below the "league" average SOS.  The Tigers best game was a victory over #24 ranked Arkansas and their worst game was to #29 ranked Mississippi.  Overall, the Tigers had the #43 ranked team in terms of total production with the #80 ranked offense and the #14 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2010
LSU finished with a 11-2 mark for the season.  LSU played a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Tigers best game was a victory over #5 ranked Alabama and their worst game was to #21 ranked Arkansas.  LSU finished the season with the #34 ranked team in overall productivity and the #54 ranked offense and the #2712 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2011
At the beginning of the season, head football coach Les Miles contract was amended.  The Tigers finished at 13-1.  LSU played a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Tigers best game was a their regular season victory over #1 ranked Alabama and their only loss was to #1 ranked Alabama in the national championship game.  LSU had the #3 ranked team in terms of total production with the #11 ranked offense and the #2 ranked defense using the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2012
The Tigers finished the season again at 10-3. LSU played an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  LSU's best game was a victory over #7 ranked Texas A&M and their worst loss was in their bowl game to #18 ranked Clemson.  Overall, LSU had the #14 ranked team with the #50 ranked offense and the #7 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2013
On January 1, LSU extended Les Miles contract (as well as adjusting some bonuses).   LSU again finished at 10-3.  The Tigers played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  Their best game was their victory over #30 ranked Auburn and their worst loss was to #45 ranked Mississippi.  Overall, LSU had the #11 ranked team with the #21 ranked offense and the #12 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.
 
2014
LSU finished the regular season at 8-4, and lost to #64 Notre Dame in their post season bowl game to end the season at 8-5.  LSU again played against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  This season the Tigers best game was a victory over #10 ranked Wisconsin at the beginning of the season and their worst loss was to Notre Dame in the Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl.  Overall, the Tigers had the #31 ranked team with the #62 ranked offense and the #15 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015
During the 2015 season, rumors about head coach Les Miles being terminated abounded.   Even sill the Tigers finished overall a bowl eligible team at 9-3 while playing against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Tigers best game was a victory was over #14 ranked Western Kentucky and their worst loss was to #17 ranked Arkansas.  LSU had the #10 ranked team in total production with the #27 ranked offense and the #14 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  Yes, LSU was a top 10 team with a coach on the hot seat for most of the season.  This gives anecdotal evidence for Humphreys, Paul & Weinbach's research that coaches are fired not because of actual performance, but rather not attaining expected performance.

2016
At the time of head football coaches Miles departure, the Tiger were 2-2 playing against a "tougher" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  To date, the Tigers best game was a victory was over #38 ranked Mississippi State (at the end of LSU's fourth game) and their worst loss was to #44 ranked Auburn.  LSU at the time of Miles departure had the #84 ranked team in total production with the #91 ranked offense and the #62 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2016 NCAA Head Football Head Coaching Changes
Baylor and Art Briles