Today marks the 37th annual playing of the Independence Bowl (first played in 1976), pitting the Ohio University Bobcats of the MidAmerican Confernce against the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks of the SunBelt Conference. Here's how each team stacks up in the NCAA FBS production model.
The Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks finished the regular season at 8-4 playing an easier schedule than the rest of the league, using my measure of schedule strength. The Warhawks most impressive win was against #51 Western Kentucky and their least impressive game was a loss to #108 ranked Auburn. The Warhawks are currently the #48 ranked team overall with the #31 ranked offense and the #60 ranked defense.
The Ohio University Bobcats finished the regular season at 8-4 playing against a MUCH EASIER strength of schedule than the average SOS for the "league". That means that Ohio University's SOS is greater than two standard deviations from the average league SOS and Ohio University is only one of three teams currently with a SOS that is greater than two standard deviations above the average SOS for the season. The Bobcats most impressive win this season was against Penn State and their most disappointing performance was a loss to currently ranked #114 Miami of Ohio. To date the Ohio University Bobcats are the #60 ranked team overall with the #60 ranked offense and the #57 ranked defense.
Given the superior offense of the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks, the model predicts that Louisiana-Monroe will be victorious in today's Independence bowl.