The San Diego State Aztecs of the Mountain West Conference will face the Brigham Young University Cougars - who currently is one of only four independent teams in NCAA FBS - today in the Poinsettia Bowl. Here is the breakdown using my NCAA FBS production model of the two teams this season along with a "prediction" as to the eventual winner.
The Brigham Young University Cougars are currently 7-5 while playing against a strength of schedule of 64.92 which is within one standard deviation of the average strength of schedule, so I would conclude that BYU has played an average strength of schedule up to this point. BYU's best victories (in terms of wins over the currently highest ranked opponents they have played) are against currently ranked #6 Utah State University and #59 Georgia Tech. The other five victories were against teams currently ranked over 100. Other than the 6-3 win over USU, the Cougars have struggled against higher ranked opponents, losing to Boise State, Notre Dame, San Jose State and Oregon State - all currently ranked in the top 25. That said, BYU is currently the #22 ranked team overall in the "league" with the #70 ranked offense and the #9 ranked defense.
The San Diego State Aztecs are currently 9-3 playing a strength of schedule equal to 71.92, which is easier than BYU's but still considered an average strength of schedule as compared to the rest of the league. The Aztecs most impressive victory was a two point decision against currently #12 ranked Boise State and Boise State defeated BYU by one point earlier in the season. The Aztecs least impressive outing was a loss to currently ranked #52 University of Washington. Their other two losses were to top 25 teams (Fresno State and San Jose State). The San Diego State Aztecs currently are the #47 ranked team in the league with the #39 ranked offense and the #50 ranked defense.
Given that BYU is estimated to be a more productive team than San Diego State, the model "predicts" that the Brigham Young University Cougars will be victorious today in the Poinsettia Bowl.
Sports Illustrated picks San Diego State over BYU.
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