Tuesday, December 4, 2012

North Carolina State Fires Head Football Coach

North Carolina State has fired their head football coach Tom O'Brien.  Let's take a look at how NC State has performed since 2008 (first year that I have all the data for the FBS production model).

Starting in 2008 the Wolfpack finished the regular season at 6-6 with a bowl loss to Rutgers resulting in a 6-7 season.  NC State's best win that season was against #41 Wake Forest and their worst loss was to #88 South Carolina.  NC State played an average schedule as compared to the rest of the league and they finished as the #78 ranked team overall with the #73 offense and #77 defense - all below average.

In 2009, NC State was 5-7 with their best win against #24 Pittsburgh, although two of those five wins were against non-FBS schools.  NC State had an average strength of schedule and finished as the #71 team overall, with the #60 offense and the #85 ranked defense.

The following season (2010) NC State finished the regular season at 8-4 and defeated West Virginia in their bowl game.  NC State's best win was over #15 ranked West Virginia in the bowl game.  NC State finished as the #37 ranked team in the nation with the #43 and #42 offense and defense respectively.

Last season (2011) the Wolfpack finished 8-5 including their win over Louisville in their bowl game.  NC State played an average strength of schedule and finished as the #70 ranked team overall with the #59 ranked offense and #66 ranked defense.

This season at the time of O'Brien's firing the NC State Wolfpack were 7-5 and bowl eligible.  NC State's best win was over Florida State and their worst loss was to Virginia.  NC State when O'Brien was fired was the #67 team overall with the #63 ranked offense and the #75 ranked defense.

As the AD at NC State said, the goal is for NC State to be a top 25 team, and that is not where the Wolfpack are yet.

Analysis of NCAA FBS coaches fired this season:
Colorado's Embree,
Purdue's Hope
Arkansas's Smith,
Boston College's Spaziani,
Auburn's Chizik,
California's Tedford,
Western Michigan's Cubit,
Tennessee's Dooley,
Kentucky's Phillips,
Idaho's Akey.