In today's Military Bowl the Bowling Green Falcons of the Mid American Conference due battle with the San Jose State Spartans of the Western Athletic Conference. So let's see how these combatants fare from the NCAA FBS production models perspective.
Bowling Green University finished the regular season at 8-4 playing an easier strength of schedule (SOS) than the average strength of schedule for the "league" overall. Bowling Green's SOS equals 84.67, where the average of the league currently stands at 66.73. Given Bowling Green's SOS is greater than one standard deviation from the mean, I conclude that they have an easier strength of schedule than the league as a whole. Further proof for their easy schedule, six of their eight wins were against teams that are currently ranked over 100 using the NCAA production model. One of those wins was against a FCS team (which by default I rank equal to 125). The other two wins were against #60 Ohio and #77 Buffalo. Bowling Green is currently the #28 ranked team overall with the #72 ranked offense and the #10 ranked defense.
The San Jose State Spartans finished the regular season at 10-2 playing against an average strength of schedule of 68.58. San Jose State's best win was against currently ranked #22 BYU and their two losses were to NCAA FBS production model top 25 teams (Utah State and Stanford). San Jose State is currently the #17 ranked team overall with the #15 ranked offense and the #32 ranked defense.
This should be an interesting game between a very good defense in Bowling Green and a very good offense in San Jose State. From the model, the game should be decided on the other end with San Jose State's superior defense shutting down Bowling Green's below average offense. Look for the San Jose State Spartans to be victorious in today Military Bowl.
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