Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Little Caesars Bowl 2012

The Little Caesars Bowl has the Central Michigan Chippewas of the Mid American Conference against the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers of the SunBelt Conference.  Continuing with each bowl game's analysis using the NCAA FBS Production Model, here is how each team stacks up.

Central Michigan finished the regular season at 6-6 playing an easier than average strength of schedule as compared to the average - meaning that CMU's schedule was greater than one standard deviation from the average SOS for the "league".  Central Michigan's best win was against #78 Iowa (other five wins over teams ranked 100 or higher), and their worst loss was to #76 Ball State.  Central Michigan is currently the #82 ranked team overall with the #66 ranked offense and the #96 ranked defense.

Western Kentucky is currently 7-5 playing against an average strength of schedule as compared to the rest of the "league".  WKU's best win was against #23 Arkansas State, and their least impressive outing was against #104 Florida Atlantic.  Western Michigan is currently ranked as the #51 most productive team in the nation with the #62 ranked offense and the #36 ranked defense.

Given Western Michigan is ranked higher than Central Michigan, the model "predicts" that Western Kentucky will win today.