This year's Armed Forces Bowl has the Air Force Falcons of the Mountain West conference facing the University of Rice Owls of Conference USA. Here's a primer using the NCAA FBS production model.
Air Force finished the season at 6-6 playing against an easier strength of schedule as compared to the average team in the "league". The Falcons most impressive win was against currently #56 ranked Nevada and their least impressive outing was a 35-38 loss to #106 UNLV. Air Force is currently the #83 ranked team overall with the #80 ranked offense and the #85 ranked defense.
Rice University also finished the regular season at 6-6 and also played an easier strength of schedule than the average of the league. The Owls best victory was against currently #63 SMU and their worst loss was against #99 Houston. Rice is currently the #79 ranked team overall with the #56 ranked offense and the #91 ranked defense.
These teams are really very evenly matched, but given the University of Rice is slightly more productive than Air Force, the model "predicts" that Rice will be the victor today in the Armed Forces Bowl.