The first NCAA FBS bowl this season is the New Mexico Bowl featuring the Nevada Wolfpack from the Mountain West Conference against the University of Arizona Wildcats from the Pacific 12 Conference. So here is how each team looks from the College Football Complex Invasion Sport Production Model.
Arizona finished the regular season at 7-5 while playing against a strength of schedule of 49.50 that was tougher than the average strength of schedule for the "league". Arizona had impressive wins over Oklahoma State (currently ranked #49) and USC (currently ranked #29) and their loss to in state rival Arizona State was their worst of the season and the only one against a team currently ranked outside of the top 25 in the model used on this blog. Rich Rodrigez's Arizona Wildcats are currently the #62 ranked team overall, with the #13 ranked offense and the #110 ranked defense. Sound familiar Michigan fans?
The Nevada Wolfpack also finished the regular season at 7-5 against an easier - relative to the "league" as a whole - than average strength of schedule of 80.75. Nevada's most impressive win was against #87 ranked Wyoming. Yes, from the model's perspective the Wolfpack defeated seven teams that were in the bottom 25% of the league as a whole and their worst loss was to the University of South Florida - now ranked #94 in the nation. That said, Nevada did play a close game against both Fresno State and Boise State (both currently ranked in the top 25 using my model). Nevada is currently the #56 ranked team overall with the #28 ranked offense and the #97 ranked defense.
Thus the New Mexico Bowl should be very entertaining for those that like high offensive output given both teams are much better on offense than on defense, and I plan on being tuned in to see how the game unfolds. The model "predicts" that Nevada is slightly better than Arizona, so the prediction is that the Nevada Wolfpack will be victorious in the 2012 New Mexico Bowl.
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