In tonight's Holiday Bowl we have the Baylor Bears of the Big 12 facing the UCLA Bruins of the Pacific 12. Here is how each team looks from the vantage point of the NCAA FBS Production Model.
Baylor finished the regular season at 7-5 playing against an average strength of schedule. Baylor's most impressive victory (win over the NCAA FBS Production Model's currently highest ranked team) was against #16 Kansas State and their most impressive loss was to currently ranked #69 Iowa State. Baylor is currently the #73 ranked team overall, with the #12 ranked offense and the #120 ranked defense.
UCLA finished the regular season at 9-3 (and lost the PAC 12 title game to Stanford) to go to 9-4 also playing against an average strength of schedule. UCLA's most impressive win was over currently #29 ranked USC and their least impressive game was a loss to currently ranked #98 California. UCLA is currently ranked as the #21 team in overall production with the #9 ranked offense and the #63 ranked defense.
Given that the two teams have nearly identically productive offenses, but that UCLA has an (slightly) below average defense while Baylor has one of the worst defenses in the FBS, the model would "predict" that UCLA will be victorious against Baylor in today's Holiday Bowl.
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