This year in the Big Easy, we have the East Carolina University Pirates of Conference USA competing against the Louisiana-Lafayette Rajun Cajuns of the SunBelt conference. In order to get more familiar with these two teams let's take a look from the vantage point of the NCAA FBS production model.
East Carolina University finished the regular season at 8-4 playing against an easier strength of schedule than the average league strength of schedule. East Carolina's eight wins this season are all over teams ranked #85 or higher (i.e. teams ranked in the bottom half of the production ranking), with the Pirates best win over currently ranked #85 Memphis and their four losses are against teams (South Carolina, North Carolina, Central Florida, and Navy) ranked in the top half of the production ranking. East Carolina is currently the #80 ranked team overall, with the #65 ranked offense and the #90 ranked defense.
The Louisiana-Lafayette Rajun Cajuns also finished the regular season at 8-4 while playing against a strength of schedule that I would consider similar to the average SOS for the league as a whole. The Rajun Cajuns have defeated three teams that are in the top half of the production rankings, with their other five victories against teams in the bottom half. Other than their loss to North Texas, Louisiana-Lafayette's losses have been to teams in the top half of the production rankings. Overall the Louisiana-Lafayette Rajun Cajuns are currently ranked #42 with the #23 ranked offense and the #65 ranked defense.
In summary, given Louisiana-Lafayette's superior productivity on both sides of the ball as compared to East Carolina, the model would predict that the Louisiana-Lafayette Rajun Cajuns will be the victor today.
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