ESPN reports that the California Golden Bears have fired their head football coach Jeff Tedford after 11 seasons as the head coach. So let's take a look at the Golden Bears through the lens of my college football production model since 2008 - even though Tedford has been at California much longer than that.
This season (2012) California finished 3-9 and bowl ineligible. California's best win this season was against currently #18 ranked UCLA and their worst loss was to currently #84 ranked Utah. The other two wins by the Golden Bears were to below average teams (ranked #63 to #124) and all of their other games were played against currently ranked above average teams. California has a strength of schedule of 47.58 which is currently almost twice as difficult as the average strength of schedule in FBS college football. California is currently the #100 ranked team overall with the currently #68 ranked offense and the currently #111 ranked defense.
In 2011 the Golden Bears finished at 7-5 in the regular season and 7-6 overall with a loss to the University of Texas in the Bridgeport Education Holiday Bowl. The Golden Bears best win was against #49 Fresno State at the beginning of the season and their worst loss was to #101 UCLA. The Golden Bears had an overall rank of #80 with the 70th best offense and the 73rd best defense.
The 2010 season was slightly worse than the 2011 season in terms of wins with Cal going 5-7 overall and thus not qualifying for a bowl game. Cal's best win that season was against #61 Arizona State and their worst defeat was to the #87 Oregon State Beavers. Cal finished the season as the #65 ranked team overall and the #86 offense and the #26 defense.
In 2009 California finished the regular season 8-4 and lost to #22 Utah in their bowl game finishing the year at 8-5. California was the #35 overall ranked team with the #25 ranked offense and the #57 ranked defense. California's best win was against #41 Arizona Wildcats and their worst loss was to the #75 Washington Huskies. California played a almost average strength of schedule of a 63.54 as compared to an average strength of schedule of 63.27.
Finally, (at least in terms of the data that I have for the model) in the 2008 season the California Golden Bears finished at 9-4 with their best win over #11 Oregon and their worst loss to #76 Maryland. California was the #14 most productive team in the nation that year with the #18 most productive offense and the #17 most productive defense.
Thus over the last five seasons we have seen a steady decline of the California Golden Bears in terms of overall productivity, and as a result California is now looking to replace their head football coach.
Analysis of NCAA FBS coaches fired this season:
Western Michigan's Cubit,
Tennessee's Dooley,
Kentucky's Phillips,
Idaho's Akey.