Friday, November 23, 2012

California fires Jeff Tedford

ESPN reports that the California Golden Bears have fired their head football coach Jeff Tedford after 11 seasons as the head coach.  So let's take a look at the Golden Bears through the lens of my college football production model since 2008 - even though Tedford has been at California much longer than that.

This season (2012) California finished 3-9 and bowl ineligible.  California's best win this season was against currently #18 ranked UCLA and their worst loss was to currently #84 ranked Utah.  The other two wins by the Golden Bears were to below average teams (ranked #63 to #124) and all of their other games were played against currently ranked above average teams.  California has a strength of schedule of 47.58 which is currently almost twice as difficult as the average strength of schedule in FBS college football.  California is currently the #100 ranked team overall with the currently #68 ranked offense and the currently #111 ranked defense.

In 2011 the Golden Bears finished at 7-5 in the regular season and 7-6 overall with a loss to the University of Texas in the Bridgeport Education Holiday Bowl.  The Golden Bears best win was against #49 Fresno State at the beginning of the season and their worst loss was to #101 UCLA.  The Golden Bears had an overall rank of #80 with the 70th best offense and the 73rd best defense.

The 2010 season was slightly worse than the 2011 season in terms of wins with Cal going 5-7 overall and thus not qualifying for a bowl game.  Cal's best win that season was against #61 Arizona State and their worst defeat was to the #87 Oregon State Beavers.  Cal finished the season as the #65 ranked team overall and the #86 offense and the #26 defense.

In 2009 California finished the regular season 8-4 and lost to #22 Utah in their bowl game finishing the year at 8-5.  California was the #35 overall ranked team with the #25 ranked offense and the #57 ranked defense.  California's best win was against #41 Arizona Wildcats and their worst loss was to the #75 Washington Huskies.  California played a almost average strength of schedule of a 63.54 as compared to an average strength of schedule of 63.27.

Finally, (at least in terms of the data that I have for the model) in the 2008 season the California Golden Bears finished at 9-4 with their best win over #11 Oregon and their worst loss to #76 Maryland.  California was the #14 most productive team in the nation that year with the #18 most productive offense and the #17 most productive defense.

Thus over the last five seasons we have seen a steady decline of the California Golden Bears in terms of overall productivity, and as a result California is now looking to replace their head football coach.

Analysis of NCAA FBS coaches fired this season:
Western Michigan's Cubit,
Tennessee's Dooley,
Kentucky's Phillips,
Idaho's Akey