ESPN reports that Duke University has extended head football coach David Cutcliffe's contract through June 2019. Given the contract extension, let's take a look at how Duke's football team has performed using my FBS college football production model under Cutcliffe's tenure since taking the helm as Duke's head football coach in 2008.
In Cutcliffe's first season (2008) the Duke Blue Devils went 4-8. Duke's best outing was a 41-31 victory against #52 Navy; and their worst performance was a 17-27 loss to #78 North Carolina State. Duke finished the season as the #84 ranked college football team overall in FBS college football, with the #85 ranked offense and the #64 ranked defense. Duke played a strength of schedule (SOS) of 62.67 which is almost exactly the average SOS for that season of a 62.79. Thus Duke ended up as a below average team playing an average strength of schedule.
The following season the Blue Devils went 5-7. The Blue Devils best game that season was a 49-28 victory over #71 North Carolina State, while their worst game was a 16-24 loss to FCS Richmond. The Blue Devils finished the season as the #80 ranked team overall, with the #95 ranked offense and the #53 ranked defense. As you can see the Blue Devils improved a small amount from the 2008 season and the Blue Devils played a SOS of 69.00 against an average SOS of 63.27, which is about average for teams of that season (i.e. within one standard deviation of the average SOS).
In the 2010 season Duke finished 3-9 with Duke playing their best game winning 34-31 against the #42 ranked Navy, while Duke's worst performance was a 48-54 loss to #104 ranked Wake Forest. Duke's performance that season resulted in the team to finish the season as the #109 ranked team overall, with the #102 ranked offense and the #112 ranked defense. In terms of the production model Duke's performance was worse in 2010 than in the previous two seasons.
The 2011 season saw Duke finish the season again at 3-9. This team saw Duke's best performance against #61 ranked Florida International University and their worse performance in terms of production was a 21-23 loss against FCS Richmond. The Blue Devils finished the season as the #113 ranked team overall, with the #112 ranked offense and the #109 ranked defense. As you can see these last two seasons Duke was in the bottom sixth of the FBS college football.
For this season (2012), Duke is currently 6-5 being bowl eligible. Duke is currently the #88 ranked overall team in college football and currently had the #87 ranked offense and the #83 ranked defense. Duke's best win this season was a 33-30 victory over currently #22 North Carolina Tar Heels and their worst loss was 41-20 to currently #78 ranked Virginia Tech. Duke has played a SOS of 60.54 as compared to the current average SOS of 67.58.
Thus since 2008, Duke's best performance in terms of team productivity was the 80th ranked team in FBS. Either way Duke has been below average for each of the last five seasons, and Duke extends their head football coaches contract, while Western Michigan fires their head football coach.
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